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*OFFICIAL Week 16 NFL Thread* Saturday Games!
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smackababy
Lifer
I don't think so. Seattle and Arizona losing puts them in either 1 or 2 (I think GB and Detroit have a better conference record, but I'd have to check). And, if somehow, it comes down to just Seattle and Dallas, Dallas has the head to head. But, I don't think that can happen.
smackababy
Lifer
Oh, and NFC North rejoice! Mike Shanahan linked with Bears head coaching position and stated he "loves Cutler". If you're a fan of the Vikings, Lions or the Pack, you don't have to worry about the bears in 2015!
IndyColtsFan
Lifer
Seattle will destroy Dallas if they meet in the playoffs. That's my prediction.
Oh great. We got both Lucifer and Loathesfer then. Shanahan hasn't done anything meaningful in almost 10 years. And it was 10 years before that that he did anything else.
smackababy
Lifer
If they meet (and it is looking likely), I think it will be a good game. Dallas beat them last time in Seattle and are still undefeated on the road. Murray will be back and 100% by playoff time and Romo is playing very well. Sherman / Bryant match up is a good one. And, I still think Seattle has trouble covering good receiving tight ends and trouble getting pressure against good OL (which Dallas has in spades). If Dallas meets Seattle coming off a first round bye, I think Dallas has a good chance to beat them. If they meet in the NFC Championship and Dallas hasn't played that extra game, I still give them a good chance.
I think Detroit has a better chance against Dallas, with their defensive front being so dominant. Romo getting his mobility back really is helping though.
Right now, they have the leading rusher and the number 1 rated QB.
Capt Caveman
Lifer
Jets always play NE tough, I believe their last 5 games have been decided by 9 points.
With two weeks off(including next week), Connolly will be back to solidify the offensive line as will the other starters that didn't play against the Jets.
manimal
Lifer
I really like shanahan but damnit I love trestman. I was secretly hoping Harbaugh would take the job and keep trestman as the OC.
Harbaugh basically runs the system trestman taught him.
I should be exited about Shanahan. He grew up less than a block from me. He went to my high school east leyden high school in franklin park illinois and won the same award as I did as a senior and he presented me the award too. Great guy.
Shanahan will at least run a one cut power run game which the bears need almost existentially to be sucessful in chicago.
Lets dream for either of the Ryan boys as the DC when they both get fired this offseason though I would prefer Rex.
Harbaugh basically runs the system trestman taught him.
I should be exited about Shanahan. He grew up less than a block from me. He went to my high school east leyden high school in franklin park illinois and won the same award as I did as a senior and he presented me the award too. Great guy.
Shanahan will at least run a one cut power run game which the bears need almost existentially to be sucessful in chicago.
Lets dream for either of the Ryan boys as the DC when they both get fired this offseason though I would prefer Rex.
Svnla
Lifer
Remember this Lions fan with the tatoo? = http://espn.go.com/blog/detroit-lio...ptimistic-about-chances?ex_cid=espnapi_public
If the Lions win the SB, he would laugh at everyone. 🙂
If the Lions win the SB, he would laugh at everyone. 🙂
smackababy
Lifer
And, we'd all laugh back. He has a stupid; and poorly done, I might add, tattoo for the rest of his life.
Dallas scares me this year. If they are gonna win a Superbowl in their current window, this is the year.
:thumbsup: I stink at predictions but my 2 preseason predictions came true: Seattle would lead the league in rushing and Santa Clara would miss the playoffs. But I am a homer so my full hearted support for your prediction doesn't mean much.
So I took my homer glasses off and ran the numbers through Week 16. Personally, I think the numbers full assert your prediction! 😎
Code:
Stat Seattle Dallas
SEA Offense Rank DAL Defense Rank Difference
DVOA 14.8 6 9.2 26 20
Points 24.9 11 22.3 15 4
Drive Sc% 41.5 5 31.9 9 4
RedZ TD/g 2.0 9 1.9 25 16
Total Yards 377.2 9 351.2 16 7
Yard Per Play 5.9 7 5.8 27 20
Rating 95.8 8 89.2 16 8
ANY/A 6.7 9 6.3 18 9
Pass Yards 201.9 29 248.1 23 -6
YPA 7.6 7 7.4 19 12
INT 6 1 16 10 9
Sacks 39 19 25 28 9
Sack% 8.3% 23 4.6% 28 5
Run 175.3 1 103.1 9 8
YPC 5.4 1 4.2 15 14
Fum 6 7 11 7 0
3rd Down% 42% 11 44% 28 17
1st Downs 20.8 14 19.7 13 -1
155
SEA Offense DAL Defense Advantage SEA + 155
SEA Defense Rank DAL Offense Rank Difference
DVOA -11.9 4 14.9 5 1
Points 16.5 1 28.2 6 5
Drive Sc% 27.5 3 42.8 3 0
RedZ TD/g 1.5 6 2.1 7 1
Total Yards 268.6 1 377.7 8 7
Yards Per Play 4.7 1 5.9 8 7
Rating 81.5 8 111.7 1 -7
ANY/A 5.2 5 7.9 4 -1
Pass Yards 184.5 1 232.3 17 16
YPA 6.3 2 8.4 1 -1
INT 11 21 10 7 -14
Sacks 33 23 30 14 -9
Sack% 6.6& 16 6.4% 18 2
Run 84.1 3 145.3 2 -1
YPC 3.5 2 4.5 5 3
Fum 10 13 14 29 16
3rd Down% 38% 14 48% 1 -13
1st Downs 17.5 1 21.5 11 10
22
SEA Defense DAL Offense Advantage SEA + 22Sources:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com
http://www.nfl.com
http://www.teamrankings.com
What this chart is: It is comparing Offense vs. Defense and "scoring" the advantage relative to league ranking. There are pros and cons to this approach but the pros are related to the fact offensive and defensive stats don't relate directly. e.g. The best pass defenses allow an average Net Yards/Attempt in the 5.5 range where the most inept offenses get 4.5. An offense that generates 375 yards a game is a top 10 squad but a defense that allows 350 is middle of the pack. Averaging 5.7 yards per play on offense is very good but a defense that allows 5.7 yards per play is bad so normalizing these relative to the league rank provides a context. It doesn't mean the raw numbers or irrelevant--and obviously matchups and who the better team is any given Sunday is more vital than any metric.
Summary:
* Seattle's Offense is a lot better than the Dallas Defense. Of the 18 metrics I tracked Seattle was ranked higher in 15, tied in 1, and lost 2. The + 155 margin for the SEA O vs. the DAL D alone is larger than the total SEAvPHI (+39) and SEAvARZ (+102).
* Seattle's running game is loved by the advanced metrics and the traditional stats. Seattle averages almost 1 yard more per rush than any team in the league. Seattle averages 30 more rush yards per game than the next best team. Their rushing DVOA (not posted) is like 3x higher than #2 which was KC the last time I checked. Old school, hard nosed football isn't popular any more but it is a proven January strategy as it travels well and it plays well in the elements. Seattle's offense doesn't get much love but being #1 in rushing, by a large margin, is noteworthy.
* Seattle's pedestrian pass offense is not high volume (#29 in yards, #32 attempts) but when it comes to efficiency Seattle is better than what they are given credit for. They average out at top 25% in Passer Rating (#8), ANY/A (#9), and YPA (#7). But the big "aha!" is the Interceptions: ranked #1. Seattle runs the ball better than everyone else, has an efficient passing game (which admittedly, watching them, can be very hit or miss), and don't turn the ball over. Every team wants an offense like that. That is the perfect offense to go with a stingy defense.
* Speaking of which the Seattle Defense is very good--but the Dallas offense is also very good which makes them relatively close. And this is not a slight toward Dallas but we saw what Seattle has done the last couple years to some very good offenses. Yes, Seattle is not impregnable. Rivers dinked and dunked them to death. Manning, after being bottled up for 58 minutes, found chips in the armour throwing deep crossing routes at Maxwell. Dallas has the personnel but the playoffs are a different animal in intensity and the elements are a bigger factor. Seattle is healthier (Kam was really hobbled in the Dallas game, Wagner busted his toe half way through, Maxwell went out, Lane was out, etc.) than the last meeting but...
* Got to give Dallas props: They beat Seattle. In Seattle. Seattle played lousy--OR Dallas made Seattle look lousy--but either way Dallas has proven to be a different team this year. Romo finally got the help he needed in Murray (I wish Manning had got the clue and gone to a team with a good defense and running game 2 years ago) and Romo has put up spectacular numbers this year. I think he is much to maligned for his teams failures so I am happy for him.
* Seattle's Defense only comes up + 22 and edge Dallas with 10 rank wins, 1 tie, and 7 losses. Not every category is equally important but I lean toward defensive ranks being more important than offense so seeing Seattle # 1 in yards and # 1 in scoring defense versus Dallas ranks of # 8 and # 6 makes me give the nod to the Seattle defense.
* No one in Seattle will count out Dallas if they come to Seattle. But that may factor in Seattle's favor--Dallas is the only team to beat Seattle at home. Seattle knows this and the 12s know this. Seattle would be at a fever pitch to vindicate home field. Dallas wounded Seattle's pride when Murray ran all over Seattle in the 4th. Kam and Wagner being healthy help (obvious by the last month of games) but run stopping is an effort issue and Seattle would be extra primed to stuff the run. Getting Jeremy Lane back to cover the slot is huge, too, as Seattle rolled out a guy off the street and Burley (a backup just added to the team a month prior).
* Seattle (9-2) has a better conference record than Dallas (7-4).
* Seattle (7-1) has a large edge over Dallas (4-4) in common opponent. Seattle has actually beat all 4 teams that beat Dallas.
Seattle: 7-1
Wins: SF (2), WAS, ARZ (2), PHI, NYG
Losses: STL
Dallas: 4-4
Wins: STL, PHI, NYG (2)
Losses: SF, WAS, ARZ, PHI
* But Dallas did beat Seattle. In Seattle. That may be the most important fact of all. Again. Dallas beat Seattle. In Seattle. D: And Dallas in 7-0 on the road. And Romo didn't implode in December. Next on his bucket list, for sure, is to go win a road game in Seattle in the playoffs. Any chance we can get Romo to hold extra points?
I am obviously biased but I don't think I am disrespectful to Dallas. But I think an NFCCG in Seattle would 9 times out of 10 result in a big win for Seattle.
But the 2014 Dallas Cowboays have what it takes to come in there any given Sunday and pull out a win. But I don't like the odds.
smackababy
Lifer
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/page...m-loser-move-fans-tuesday-morning-quarterback
So, this article brings up a good point about being a fair weather fan. Why stick with a losing team? Is it entertaining?
So, this article brings up a good point about being a fair weather fan. Why stick with a losing team? Is it entertaining?
smackababy
Lifer
Comparing common opponents is pretty useless in some of those cases. Arizona, for instance, beat a Romoless Dallas. Their offense was completely shut down. Imagine if Wilson wasn't on the field for a game. And Philly had a Romo with a broken back and broken ribs, who was unable to run. Would you count that loss against Seattle, with a healthy Wilson back and playing well? Furthermore, Seattle beat a Palmerless shell of the Cardinals, the last of which with Lindley throwing the ball. Not entirely impressive.
I do agree Seattle has an edge, but using their rushing being #1 is also misleading. They are nearly identical in total yards per game as Dallas (337.2 vs 337.7), with Dallas scoring more points. Seattle also has the same amount of rushing fumbles as Dallas, but the difference being Dallas has lost all 8 of theirs, Seattle has only lost 2.
While Dallas did beat Seattle before they hit their stride, Dallas is playing better than they were at that point. If ever there was a time Dallas were ready to make a run, this is it. Now, I wouldn't recommend betting on the Cowboys (I always advise against it, actually), but I wouldn't recommend counting them out either.
Phoenix86
Lifer
What the chart is, is a bunch of bull shit. Statistically, it's a nightmare. The philosophy behind the conclusion is equally as tragic.
Maybe I'm missing something here, but I'll take a quick stab. *Note I don't really care about the conclusion, but I'm a Dallas fan.
Using rank as a value when the actual metrics are available is unnecessary, and muddles things. Why do they do this? To get to a "value" that's the "same" so they can add them all up.
The difference between 1st and 2nd on a rank are almost certainly no the same as 7th and 8th. Making up number for example, a 1st place offense might have 6 ints, where 2nd has 7. Difference between 1st and 2nd has an actual metric difference of 1. A 7th place team might have 12 ints and an 8th place team 15, for a metric difference of 3, but only 1 value difference.
If the difference between two sequential values isn't the same, and changes greatly between stats you aren't really arriving at that common value you were trying to achieve. Summing up these values means jack shit.
zinfamous
No Lifer
this is why I never was big into professional sports for so many years--it was always nothing more than a business and, even today, I still consider the idea of grown men running around and playing games for money to be a bit silly, despite how much entertainment I may derive from it.
I don't buy merch, I don't really care to see this crap live (lol--~$80 for some uncomfortable seats, $12 for a shitty water beer, +++), and I just tend to laugh at my shitty team setting new records for shittiness. Still, I much prefer my team to win and those victories are always better than any other.
College sports were more of a community-based thing for me, though that largely has to do with your surroundings, I suppose. I'm not sure if there is anything else in a place like Green Bay, or anywhere near Green Bay, so the Packers thing makes sense, or any other town where there isn't a large college program.
Green Bay is interesting. They've had 2 quarterbacks in 20 years. Peppers *I think* is the only player on their team that they didn't draft. Or if he's not, he's one of only a couple players. Then you add in what you said in that it's the only thing going on in that area and it's just going to make for a wildly popular fan base. I think in this case the management is largely the reason. They draft well, develop players well, promote a very community oriented mentality and just make for a very good professional sports organization.
They are similar to San Antonio for the NBA. You've got a lot of drafted talent on your roster for years. It's not a revolving door of free agents and starters. That's another small market team that has thrived not because it's a small market, but because it's a well run organization that is very successful.
I don't blame people for hopping teams. You can't control the front office and their decisions. Fans shouldn't be punished for poor management moves. Chicago is a prime example of that...I'm not sure anyone was thrilled with that Cutler contract. And now look at the debacle that they are in. As a fan the only real power you have is to vote with your wallet. Don't go to your local teams games. Don't buy their merchandise. Ect. Well managed teams should be rewarded for their success. Nothing wrong with picking a winner.
Just don't get all high and mighty and be a giant ass about it if the team you decided to sack ride this year wins. That's all I ask.
purbeast0
No Lifer
yeah, shanahan has a track record of going to places that have a shitty qb situation and turning it around.
oh ... wait.
Agreed. As I said it all comes down to actual match ups and any given Sunday. I was poking at the stats to see trends.
Very much agree. But I wouldn't discount what Seattle did against the Cards w/ Stanton or what Seattle's offense just did to a "good" Arizona defense. 600 yards is 600 yards.
While I appreciate you saying Seattle has the edge (I think the stats bear that out) I also don't want to come off as bashing Dallas. They are a good team this year; they have a top tier offense with the most efficient passing game and the 2nd best rush attack (but also best single rusher). Their defense is average but no team is without flaws.
RE: the rushing stats, Seattle is #1 at 175 yards per game, Dallas is # 2 at 145. 30 yards is a lot (20% more) but the bulk of those yards are due to average and not volume as Seattle averages a gaudy 5.4 yards-per-carry (# 1) while Dallas averages 4.5 yards (# 5). Of course Seattle's run attack is playing the Dallas defense, not offense which is where the bigger disparity is. But I show the Dallas numbers because it puts into context how great Seattle's run attack is (on the reverse Dallas absolutely has a better pass attack!!) But comparing rush attacks another way to put into perspective how significant that 0.8 yards-per-carry difference is:
Seattle Rush DVOA: 29.2% (# 1)
(Difference 1-to-2: 20.8%)
Dallas Rush DVOA: 8.4% (# 2)
(Difference 2-to-23: 19.0%)
Houston Rush DVOA: -10.6 (# 23)
Source. Both Seattle and Dallas are good--but Seattle is borderline historically great, easily one of the best rushing DVOA in the last 15 years. Putting it into league perspective the difference between #1 Seattle and #2 Dallas is 20.8%. The difference between #1 and #2 (20.8%) is greater than the difference between #2 Dallas and #23 Houston (19.0%).
That doesn't guarantee a Seattle victory. But that is extremely impressive--it is rare for the difference between the #1 and #2 teams to be larger than the #2 through #20 team. That is Elite. Seattle has an elite rushing attack. And they have proved it by running all over good rush teams. Last week Arizona came in ranked # 6 in yards (90.4) and # 7 in average (3.8). All Seattle did was drop 267 yards with a 7.9 per carry average. Which is crazy considering their starting FB is on IR, their best TE is on IR (and they were down to 1 TE for part of the game), and their best linemen (LT Okung and C Unger) were out. That is an elite running game.
But you are correct they are neck-and-neck in total offensive yards and Dallas has an edge in scoring. I would argue rushing yards is a lot more valuable than passing yards but that isn't important. The relevant part, IMO, is the Dallas offense isn't playing the Seattle offense. The Dallas Offense has to play the Seattle Defense. That is why there is a disparity in the chart.
But you have the most vital stat on the entire chart: Dallas beat Seattle. In Seattle. I am not bashing Dallas, I just like looking at numbers--knowing full well numbers can be deceptive regarding real matchups and how a game develops.
You are right, and that is where stats cannot tell you what is happening on the field. e.g. A lot of Seattle fumbles were with players (especially Wilson) running toward the sideline so there are fewer defensive recoveries.
BTW, this goes both ways. Seattle's defense is ranked # 1 (t) for most fumbles caused at 27. But they have only recovered 10 which makes them ranked # 13 (t).
This is why I don't believe in guarantees and predictions can perilous: footballs are oblong and take odd bounces. Any given Sunday...
Fair enough. Dallas has every reason to be confident in this years team and can boldly march into the CLink. Sure, Wilson is 23-2 at home but Dallas can proudly hang their hat on the fact they put one of those L's on Wilson @ Home.
Both teams are different than they were in week 5. But that is the point: the NFL is a long, difficult season where attrition is a big part of the game. And it is all about matchups. So while I think Seattle would be primed to shut down Dallas, Dallas fans have every reason to believe Dallas could pull out a solid win. That is why they play the game!
And, the fans own the Green Bay Packers.
The public. Green bay are the only nfl team to not have an owner. All money earned goes back into the club.
---------------
The Packers are deeply rooted in the Wisconsin city where they were founded in 1919. They were named after a local meat processing plant, the Indian Packing Company, which paid for the first uniforms. Starting in the 1920s, the Green Bay Football Corp. made a series of public stock offerings. In 1950, 1,900 local residents each put up $25 a share to buy the team.
This is the main reason the Pack has a huge fan base.
smackababy
Lifer
Yes, we know. GB fans won't stfu about it. As if owning 1/104,057 of an NFL team means anything... Literally, nobody cares except the idiots who live in or around GB.
The main reason they have a large fanbase is because they don't suck, and had many losing seasons since the early 80s and they have a history of winning a bunch of titles in the early days of the NFL, which nobody cares about.
geez, go take a class in anger management. you seem to think my statement was meant to piss you off personally.
not everyone knew, besides yourself, which is why I posted the information.
enjoy the rest of the season, if you can.
smackababy
Lifer
Everybody who has ever talked to a GB fan knows. They are thecrossfitters of the NFL. They feel they need to tell everyone their ownership status.
by everyone, you mean in Illinois?
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