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Official Trump second term prediction thread

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Pens1566 said:
Probably the most realistic best case scenario.

Obviously the REAL best case would be for him to not try any of his stupid plans, but we all know that's not gonna fucking happen.
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To some degree, the cynics realists are probably right. Good or bad "governance" will conceal some of the grifting his crime family will be awfully busy at. I was wondering what Trump was gonna do after selling his D.C. hotel's lease in 2022, but reportedly he's trying to buy it back now LOL.

Knowing Trump's views on race and his first term actions at the southern border, nobody should doubt his admin's motivations against migrants and undocumented immigrants.
 
K1052 said:
Bond market doesn't like what it sees and has been headed in the opposite direction of the discount rate. If they see giant risk the fed can cut to zero and it won't matter.
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Budget deficit is starting to get into the scary and unsustainable level too. 40% higher this year than last year. Tax cuts should help along with rising interest payments 🙄
 
Pretty fascinating interview with outgoing US Amb. to Israel Jack Lew, where he says the Biden admin has never ordered Israel to end its rampage in Gaza, never criticised its expanding the war to Lebanon, nor its assault on Rafah, never imposed an arms embargo.
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I would assume this is also the reason Biden dragged his feet on MAGA / Trump.
There's no one home. Biden is no longer a cogent person who can receive new info and act accordingly. To make critical and informed decisions. And none of his staff had the balls to seize the Presidency from him, in fact or in function. The Democrats want to hold Israel to account, but Democrats have no leader. Biden needed to be removed more than a year ago. For both Israeli policy... and American Democracy.
 
Trump wants to reinstate Title 42 when he takes office, but there’s no raging pandemic anymore so he’s ordered his goon squad to supply him with one.

www.nytimes.com

Inside Trump’s Search for a Health Threat to Justify His Immigration Crackdown

President-elect Donald J. Trump’s advisers have spent months trying to identify a disease that will help them build their case for closing the border.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

So that’s why he wants RFKjr in charge of HHS.
 
KMFJD said:
in really strange news, trump seems to have managed a ceasefire and hostage exchange deal and the israeli right are seething(while occupying more land on the west bank)
https://twitter.com/x/status/1878615892822782072



https://twitter.com/x/status/1878924501494194602

https://archive.is/iR4sB (Haaretz article)

lmao donald the dove
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I doubt Donald is doing this out of his desire to see the violence stop and do something good in the world. But a broken clock can be right. So I will skeptically wait to see if there's some other benefactor to this course of action.
 
Fenixgoon said:
I doubt Donald is doing this out of his desire to see the violence stop and do something good in the world. But a broken clock can be right. So I will skeptically wait to see if there's some other benefactor to this course of action.
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perhaps the Saudi's (lol) outbribed bibi and israel for don's attention
 
Jaskalas said:
I would assume this is also the reason Biden dragged his feet on MAGA / Trump.
There's no one home. Biden is no longer a cogent person who can receive new info and act accordingly. To make critical and informed decisions. And none of his staff had the balls to seize the Presidency from him, in fact or in function. The Democrats want to hold Israel to account, but Democrats have no leader. Biden needed to be removed more than a year ago. For both Israeli policy... and American Democracy.
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This could be an interesting experiment/learning experience..

I mean, my instinctive thought is that those tariffs are going to be a disaster - driving both inflation and unemployment. Objectively I should be hoping they don't happen, because the chances are they will be bad for everybody.

But it could be instructive to learn just how far one can go down that road before the costs exceed any benefits. In some ways there might be some upsides to such a regime - allowing the growth of domestic industries that need a lot of capital investment, and reducing the complexity of the tax system. Maybe. It probably depends on the level of development a nation is at, and the state of the global system. It will just be interesting to see what happens.

Sounds as if Trump is proposing 'testing to destruction' though (because he's nuts), so probably won't be fun for us test subjects. It seems consistent with his entire agenda, of rolling everything backwards, and trying to use brute-force to force things to return to the early, pre-WW1, pre-WW2, pre-Great-Depression, days of capitalism.

Seems to me there's an interesting question there, as to whether such hankering for a golden age is in any way sensible. Most leftists I know see the changing nature of the capitalist system as being part of an inevitable, inexorable process of decline, the working-out of its inherent contradictions, that will end in either socialism or barbarism. Whereas Trump seems to represent a strand of the reactionary right who think the system can be rolled back to that golden age, by sheer force of will - a belief that seems to conflict with technocratic capitalists just as much as it does with Marxists.

It's intriguing that the US first rose to dominance under a highly-protectionist regime. It only embraced 'free trade' once it was in a position to benefit from it. But can one simply _force_ the system to return to its earlier condition, even while everything else in the world has changed? Will it also require a rolling back of everything else to pre-early-20th-century conditions (e.g. bringing back slavery, a return to 19th century living standards, a return to old-style imperialism, etc)?

I'll be a little disappointed if Trump simply fudges the whole thing and doesn't actually put his ideas to the test, even if, in reality, that's probably the best outcome one can hope for.
 
pmv said:
But it could be instructive to learn just how far one can go down that road before the costs exceed any benefits. I
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There is no cost unless Trump's supporter rebel. The honest truth is that if tariffs are applied as Trump has stated they will be cost of goods will go up and Trump et all will blame the Democrats. It is likely his supporters being super dense will believe him but who knows what will happen.

Like wise if he executes his immigration policy as stated farmers will be royally pissed. He will throw them a bone at an enhanced deficit but exactly how they will respond who knows.
 
you2 said:
There is no cost unless Trump's supporter rebel. The honest truth is that if tariffs are applied as Trump has stated they will be cost of goods will go up and Trump et all will blame the Democrats. It is likely his supporters being super dense will believe him but who knows what will happen.

Like wise if he executes his immigration policy as stated farmers will be royally pissed. He will throw them a bone at an enhanced deficit but exactly how they will respond who knows.
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I think if prices shoot up most people are probably gonna be pretty pissed.
 
Trump will take the oath using a special edition Trump bible and have ads running immediately afterwards selling one just like it for $200.
 
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