Clinton is going to take California... unless my math is wrong the CNN exit polls have it Obama 44.52 / Clinton 51.02
but with the proportional delegate splitting, Cali won't mean as much as it should if it's a narrow margin.
Most sides are predicting a delegate split in CA doesnt matter who wins.
Tonight is a wash in terms of delegates. They are pretty much looking like they will be dead even.
Yes but that would've been a huge symbolic victory for Obama. Not so much for Clinton, but with that and New York she has a legitimate reason to talk up her results. If Obama had got it there isn't much she could say.
As can Obama he will win 12 states, and came back from WAY WAY back in almost all of them.
Obama still has the momentum.
techs
Lifer
- Sep 26, 2000
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No doubt Obama can talk up his results also. I was saying CA was a liability for Clinton.. of course it hurts Obama to lose it but not nearly as much as it would've her.
Capt Caveman
Lifer
- Jan 30, 2005
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Those are offical.
MSNBC just had an estimate of 594 Obama to 554 Clinton about 10 minutes ago. It is all number crunching.
It is going to be close.
It all will depend on the early/absentee voting. But the whole issue of whites voting for Obama is settled. Hes gotten 40% of the white vote in most states. He is also closing the gender gap as well.
The good thing for Obama is, the next 6 primaries and caucuses are VERY friendly to the Obama campaign.
I'm a bit suspicious of the CA numbers on both sides and am inclined to believe they put the absentee vote in first and are now counting today's vote.
Brainonska511
Lifer
- Dec 10, 2005
- 28,773
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I'm a bit suspicious of CA numbers as well, as they also award many delegates based on congressional districts, so it's more like 53 separate races in CA. There are a handful of delegates awarded proportionally by the count of the whole state, but the big thing is winning at least 15% in each district (15% gets at least some delegates).
Well, there were 3million absentee ballots turned in before this morning. CA expects aboutg 4.25million absentee ballots. But yeah absentee are usually the first to be counted.
New Mexico hasnt had any returns but exit polls show
Obama winning the male vote, and matching Clinton on the female vote. New Mexico could very well go to Obama.
That would be 13-9.
Obama winning the male vote, and matching Clinton on the female vote. New Mexico could very well go to Obama.
That would be 13-9.
techs
Lifer
- Sep 26, 2000
- 28,559
- 4
- 0
Obama has won in states that gave Bush something like 75 percent in both his runs.
The Dems have NO chance of winning the states Obama has won.
Hillary has won the toss up states, right on the old Mason-Dixon line that have traditionally been close in Presidential elections. No way Obam can win Georgia, or Kansas in a general election.
But in Tennesse and Oklahoma and Arkansas the Dems have at least a shot.
Actually, after today McCain will be the presumptice nominee. And once that sinks in, polling will show that Clinton has a far better chance in winning in the electoral college, which should help her.
Plus, the remaining big states are Pennsylvania, Ohio and Texas.
In Ohio in a poll just done Hillary leads 42 to 19 pecent (poll was done the day before Edwards dropped out). In Texas Hillary leads Obama by 10 percent. Pennsylvania doesn't have a recent poll. Pennsylvanias poll was done Jan 14th and Hillary led by 20 percent, though Edwards was still in that poll.
Capt Caveman
Lifer
- Jan 30, 2005
- 34,543
- 651
- 126
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