Prediction: Lakers in 6
Matchups:
Garnett, Perkins, Big Baby, Wallace v Gasol, Bynum, Odom
Advantage: Lakers. Garnett is simply breaking down. After a good series against the Cavs, he's reaggravated the knee and had very limited effectiveness. Perkins is on thin ice because he is one technical foul away from missing a game. When Perkins gets the ball in the post, the offense basically stops for 5 seconds. Big Baby hustles and played with energy and determination, but he has a penchant for trying to play inside against taller players, and with his relative lack of height and poor elevation his shot is easily blocked. Wallace is hampered by injury, and is too old to effectively guard Gasol. Bynum will be limited by his balky knee, and is playing on guts. Gasol is stronger and a bit bulkier than 2 years ago and is playing great. As long as he doesn't get rattled, his height, quickness and superb passing make him a very tough matchup for the Celtics. Odom can post up Big Baby, and take Garnett off the dribble. Odom is enormously talented and can excel at every aspect of the game.
Pierce v Artest
Advantage: even. Pierce is even slower now than he was 2 years ago. Artest is stronger and can body him, and Pierce won't be able to bump him and then fade for the jumper. This series is the apex of Artest's purpose with the Lakers. The downside is that Artest could kill his own team by launching ill-advised shots (see Houston, 2009).
Rondo, R. Allen, T. Allen v Kobe, Fisher, Farmar, Brown
Advantage: Lakers. Kobe is Kobe - nothing else needs to be said. Boston needs to set a lot of screens for Ray and make Kobe chase him around - Kobe hates this and is vulnerable here, to the point where I could see Fisher take this cover. Rondo has a speed, jumping, athletic advantage over Fisher, but Fisher is a clutch shooter, physical, and a dirty enough player than he could take Rondo out of his element a little. I would bet that Fisher is the guy LA will use to try to get a technical foul on Perkins. T. Allen is a tenacious defender who sometimes hurts Boston of offense. Farmar is pesky and can get going from 3, but can be exploited by the Celtics backcourt at any time. Shannon Brown is a great athlete and explosive, but needs to be used in small doses or else he'll be abused by Boston. A wildcard here is Nate Robinson for the Celtics - he could provide a huge lift, or be a total no-factor.
Intangibles
Advantage: Celtics. Kobe & Gasol are on a quest for redemption. In 2008, Boston intimidated them both physically and emotionally, and Kobe & Pau want revenge. The edge, though, goes to Boston because they are a sterling example of the whole being greater than the sum of it's parts. They are a team that functions as an organism.
Coaching
Even. Phil Jackson's job right now is to keep the machinery humming, and make sure that potentially volatile situations don't blow up. Doc Rivers is a field general, providing inspiration and in-game adjustments.
If KG can't play well, if Perkins gets a T and loses a game to suspension... LA in 5. If Fisher can't hit big shots, if Artest plays stupid and KG can duplicate his 18/10 line per game against Cleveland, LA in 7.