The Shi'ites in southern Iraq will be better off under almost any circumstance. The Kurds in northern Iraq are scarcely better off if Turkish troops arrive (which has been guaranteed b/c the Parliament approved US over-fly rights AND authorized troops to enter Iraq). The Bush administration has not cooperated at all with organizations that have one function . . . humanitarian relief. People will suffer needlessly b/c this operation is focused on taking out Saddam NOT the humanitarian salvation of Iraqis.
It is certainly possible that Bush will intimidate Saddam into leaving or annihilate his regime with a minimal amount of civilian and military casualties. It is possible a Pro Consul will quickly take the reigns of reconstructing civilian infrastructure while US troops locate and eradicate an extensive WMD program which includes a nuclear development program and tacit (if not overt) support/plans to aid terrorist organizations. It is possible that within 6-12mo Iraq will be pumping oil at capacity and the funds go entirely to civilian purposes like hospitals, schools, roads, water, and sanitation. Within the same time frame more and more authority is yielded to an Iraqi council if not the development of a truly representative government.
It's all possible . . . each has it's complications that make an individual aspect more or less likely. The laws of probability make the entire scenario very unlikely. I really hope for a good outcome for the people of Iraq . . . but I expect it to happen in spite of US actions . . . not the result of US actions . . . akin to the budding democracy in Iran. Of course, the imminent removal of Saddam's regime will be attributable to US military might and said removal of Saddam (even if the means are destructive) must be considered a good outcome on balance . . . assuming thousands of civilians don't die in the next month followed by thousands more in a humanitarian crisis.
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