jonks
Lifer
- Feb 7, 2005
- 13,918
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Originally posted by: Hayabusa Rider
Originally posted by: sirjonk
Originally posted by: Eeezee
Yes, I agree, Hillary as the nominee would send a ton of voters to McCain. I think that's obvious, and there's nothing wrong with stating the obvious.
Nope, nothing wrong with stating the obvious, unless it's completely against the data. Obama's supporters are more liberal than Hillary's, and if he gets the nomination, more of Clinton's supporters go to McCain than would Obama's supporters if Hillary wins the nom.
The opposite of what you claim is obvious is true according to: http://www.delegatehub.com/archive/?id=6333
Hillary supporters support her in large part because they believe experience matters. 25% would go with McCain over Obama. Meanwhile 86% of Obama supporters would support Clinton in the general. If you have data other than your own guessitmate as to what is obvious I'd be interested in seeing it.
http://www.people-press.org/re...splay.php3?PageID=1254
One-in-five white Democrats (20%) say that they will vote for McCain over Obama, double the percentage who say they would switch sides in a Clinton-McCain matchup (10%). Roughly the same number of Democrats age 65 and older say they will vote for McCain if Obama is the party's choice (22%). Obama also suffers more defections among lower income and less educated Democratic voters than does Clinton.
In addition, female Democrats look at the race differently depending on the matchup. While 93% of women in the party say they would vote for Clinton over McCain, just 79% say they would support Obama over McCain.
A quarter of Democrats (25%) who back Clinton for the nomination say they would favor McCain in a general election test against Obama. The "defection" rate among Obama's supporters if Clinton wins the nomination is far lower; just 10% say they would vote for McCain in November, while 86% say they would back Clinton.
Yet in polls pitting McCain vs Obama, Obama wins while the opposite happens with McCain vs. Hillary.
I'll say it for the record. If Hillary wins, she'll beat McCain just like Kerry beat Bush. It won't happen. Obama has the best chance between of the two Dems. If the Dems front Hillary, I'll vote McCain along with a ton of other people. Wait and see.
I disagree and with the sources above as evidence. If Obama gets the nom, seniors (who have a proven track record of actually voting) will go McCain in larger numbers. Remove the impetus for women to get heavily involved and the Dems will also lose that advantage. Hillary as the nom motivates women to come out and vote for her as Obama motivates the black vote. But women make up a far larger constituency.
Recent compiled polling results (http://www.realclearpolitics.c...esident/national.html) show Obama has a 4 pt advantage over McCain while Hillary ties. That's not a margin worth basing a vote on. 2 months ago Hillary was far ahead in the same poll. What will happen now that she's won TX/OH? What happens if she wins PN? What happens to those numbers 2 months from now? It's a fickle metric based on who's popular at the moment.
61% of americans in a very recent poll want troops home within a year. The country is incredibly dissatisfied after 8 years of reps in the WH and are looking for a change to the dems. You voted for Bush twice and now support obama. Theres about 1000 people like you in the whole country. You won't be influencing the swing of this election. The overwhelming majority of dems will vote dem, and all the of huge turnouts at primaries, for both candidates, indicates a massive movement come november.
Saying Hillary is unelectable is partisan claptrap.
