Discussion ***Official*** 2026 Stock Market Thread 💰

[FelixDeCat]

This pretty much sums up the market the first two weeks of this year:

 

[FelixDeCat]

Way overdue for buyable juicy pull back.

 

[dasherHampton]

I'm already up 13 percent on the year. Can this possibly continue?

 

[Charmonium]

I'm already up 13 percent on the year. Can this possibly continue?

I haven't been paying much attention, but I think you get more out watching the financial news in maybe 15-20 minute chunks (skipping ads of course - never watch things live if you can avoid it). I also screen out anyone "talking their book" as they say. That's usually pretty quickly obvious.

"Oh. A 55 gallon barrel of snake oil you say."

"That . . . is just so . . . Excuse me."

To get to the point, my guess is that the Fed has finally managed to hone their art from something akin to red ocher cave paintings to . . . mmm, let's say an XKCD comic. Maybe it seems more primitive, but 'appearances' aren't the point.

To translate, I think that they have finally managed to interpret their often partial and incomplete data and are doing a much, much better job of forecasting.

Here's an interesting chart. Well, I think so.



Note when they got serious about tamping down the economy. Fed funds went from 0 to over 500 bps in just a little over a year. Gotta love those antilock brakes, huh?

That lasted for just about a year. Then finally, in 2024, they started cutting. Not nearly as aggressively but . . . it seems to be working.

And you have to give them particularly high marks given we had Orange Jesus shitting tariffs on everyone's lawn. Tariffs, if you haven't heard this already, are just another form of inflation. And the last thing you want to do in an inflationary economy, is CUT F'ING RATES.

 

[dasherHampton]

Are you high?

A pot shop just opened up a few minutes from my house. I've been thinking about switching from booze to joints for a while now.

 

[Charmonium]

Just in case you're not already familiar, from XKCD. What am I saying. These are the legends of our people - HUZZAH!


https://xkcd.com/3192/

 

[Charmonium]

Are you high?

A pot shop just opened up a few minutes from my house. I've been thinking about switching from booze to joints for a while now.

Umm, I'm not sure how to respond. But no, well no more than usual. I can't smoke dope . . . or anything really, even vapes. Long story and trust when I say, you'd rather not know. Edibles are an option, but dosing is basically a black art. So I have to be pretty desperate.

If you're suspicious of the veracity of my comments (and of course you SHOULD be), Investopedia has a pretty good overview of basic monetary theory. And since I'm sure you know what that is, it's really not as . . . I guess, "unfathomable" is the best word, as you might have imagined.

It's really something everyone should have at least some understanding of. It pretty much governs our lives. C'est la mort.

 

[dasherHampton]

I'm sorry. It was meant to be a joke.

I read your post and it went way over my head,

 

[Charmonium]

I'm sorry. It was meant to be a joke.

I read your post and it went way over my head,

Reality is perception. People tend to find me . . . how shall I put this . . . a condescending, cock sucking asshole. So since I can never know the entire range of experience readers might have, I finally came to the conclusion by which I resolve many conundra - fuck it, if it please my lord or lady.

Oh the point there was, don't assume you've lost until you at least try.

 

[dasherHampton]

Back to stocks -

I did hit a mini home run with IBRX today. First if the year.

Hold or sell?

 

[Charmonium]

No idea, but sacrificing a goat and a couple chickens can't hurt.

 

[Charmonium]

Apologies for not being of any help. If I actually knew anything, of course I would share - with the attendant, long panoply of caveats of course. One must carefully guard one's bung hole and taint.

I did look up their "profile" though. And while biotech has long had lofty aspirations, their road almost reminds you of the Road of Death during Desert Storm. See spoiler. Or, maybe not.

One of my exes was a molecular biologist from Moscow. After Columbia, she got lab work at some well know pharma/research place. This was in the late 90s. As a Russian, born and raised in Moscow (across from the Lubyanka), she was genetically averse to anything that stank of hope. But she could see so many companies with ridiculous burn rates that only rarely produced a marketable and PROFITABLE product, that, well shouldn't kill too many folks.

That said, in recent years, biotech has grown into somethin that is much more like real science than alchemy. The understanding of the relevant mechanisms, their behaviour, how to manipulate them to a focused and discrete end - that's what elevates witch doctoring to actual science.

Executive summary - biotech still skews toward being somewhat volatile. But it's not like investing in Powerball tickets.

Best of luck. And again, not saying you should sacrifice a goat to Baphomet, but . . .

Spoiler: expect grisly carnage

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stp0JtqH6Fg

 

[FelixDeCat]

The only easiest way to become a millionaire in America is to open up a fake daycare or senior center.. in your own home!

And I dont think its just MN, one example was from WA. A "daycare" in someones home gets $750,000 so she can stay home with her two kids. Does anybody check or care? Apparently not.

 

[IronWing]

Have you considered the idea that you might be eating right wing propaganda, again? As you well know, Fox has a decades long history of lying to you. Why you keep eating the propaganda and shitting it back out in these forums year after year when no one believes your shit is a mystery.

 

[Red Squirrel]

How is exposing fraud "right wing propaganda"? You'd think it would be a non partisan issue. These fraudsters are taking your tax money. Liberals often seem to act like they don't pay taxes too and never bat an eye at waste and fraud. I don't really get it.

Heck even starting a legit daycare there seems like it would be a lucrative business considering the amount of money the government is giving them, at the expense of taxpayers.

 

[IronWing]

How is exposing fraud "right wing propaganda"? You'd think it would be a non partisan issue. These fraudsters are taking your tax money. Liberals often seem to act like they don't pay taxes too and never bat an eye at waste and fraud. I don't really get it.

Heck even starting a legit daycare there seems like it would be a lucrative business considering the amount of money the government is giving them, at the expense of taxpayers.

The fraudsters convinced you, without evidence, that there is massive fraud in Minnesota daycare centers. Yelling real loud isn’t evidence. It’s the same shit over and over. Right wing media lies and you suck it up.

 

[Red Squirrel]

The fraudsters convinced you, without evidence, that there is massive fraud in Minnesota daycare centers. Yelling real loud isn’t evidence. It’s the same shit over and over. Right wing media lies and you suck it up.

There's no convincing required, they exposed it and it's already out there. One of them even shut down due to being exposed. If it was real you'd hear something from parents who had kids going there and now have to try to find another daycare. You'd also have neighbours saying they see parents drop off and pickup their kids. But nothing. Some of these places were registered for 80+ kids. That would be a lot of traffic twice a day going to these places and it would be very easy to prove that they're real.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I hate when we get too political here, but this is business related....

Europe is backing off recent US trade deal in retaliation for Trumps strong arm trade tactics to occupy Greenland:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/trump-tariffs-live-updates-trump-announces-tariffs-on-european-countries-until-deal-is-reached-for-purchase-of-greenland-danish-pm-says-europe-will-not-be-blackmailed-152657328.html

We also should get the tariff ruling soon. Going to be lots of drama this week. I expect choppy trading for the next 90 days, up and down.

 

[IronWing]

I hate when we get too political here, but this is business related....

Europe is backing off recent US trade deal in retaliation for Trumps strong arm trade tactics to occupy Greenland:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/trump-tariffs-live-updates-trump-announces-tariffs-on-european-countries-until-deal-is-reached-for-purchase-of-greenland-danish-pm-says-europe-will-not-be-blackmailed-152657328.html

We also should get the tariff ruling soon. Going to be lots of drama this week. I expect choppy trading for the next 90 days, up

Stop posting political rubbish and the thread stays non-political.

 

[IronWing]

There's no convincing required, they exposed it and it's already out there. One of them even shut down due to being exposed. If it was real you'd hear something from parents who had kids going there and now have to try to find another daycare. You'd also have neighbours saying they see parents drop off and pickup their kids. But nothing. Some of these places were registered for 80+ kids. That would be a lot of traffic twice a day going to these places and it would be very easy to prove that they're real.

The fraudsters didn’t expose anything other than your gullibility.

 

[FelixDeCat]

You are welcome to watch the video and refute the facts on an individual basis. From what I saw the evidence seemed pretty convincing, even to someone who might have attended a Quality Leering Center.