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Discussion ***Official*** 2025 Stock Market Thread 💰

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I predict the end to the government shut down happening soon.

Powell always states about a dozen times during each FOMC press meeting that they are data dependent.

A rate cut in December was looking likely. No government, no data. No data, no rate cut.
 
Well, NBIS hasn't been 20 for a long time. I don't think I started posting about NBIS until it hit like 40-50. 20 would have been a great entry.

I don't even remember why I bought it. I probably read one of those "You'll regret not investing in Nebius in 10 years!" articles. One day I scanned my brokerage account and there it was, like $50+, in all of its newfound glory.

Kind of like DAVE. One day I was randomly scanning, saw the DAVE price , and thought it was a glitch.
"when did this shit go to 170 dollars a share?!?!?!?!?".

Unfortunately DAVE reverse split so much I only have 6 shares. They are worth almost $250 a share. Definitely a lesson as far as holding on to losers instead of dumping them indiscriminately .

I wanted to ask you..

Are you in RKLB or ONDS? And is it a low conviction or a medium conviction play for you?
 
I predict the end to the government shut down happening soon.

Powell always states about a dozen times during each FOMC press meeting that they are data dependent.

A rate cut in December was looking likely. No government, no data. No data, no rate cut.
Both sides have held the country hostage until the election to use to political advantage. 🙄

So long as dear leader is treated as the sole member of government this may persist afterwards. There was a certain Russian individual who publicly surmised Trump's ultimate goal was to default on our debt and/or replace it with some sort of arbitrary crypto.

I knew for decades default or remonitization of the national debt was inevitable and have long preached against it on this forum.

He just randomly decided to withdraw pandemic era subsidies for Obamacare creating this stalemate. I've never been a fan of Obamacare but why just do that?

After the election hopefully they do a 60 day CR and discuss the subsidy issue to avert yet another shut down. My nephew needs to get paid.
 
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Reading up on CMBM. The auditor resigned, the CFO resigned and they could get kicked off the exchange or be technically in default of all their debt.
 
He just randomly decided to withdraw pandemic era subsidies for Obamacare creating this stalemate. I've never been a fan of Obamacare but why just do that?

After the election hopefully they do a 60 day CR and discuss the subsidy issue to avert yet another shut down. My nephew needs to get paid.

It's not just that..

Why do we pay taxes?? For social services to be funded (social security, medicare, medicaid, snap food benefits, etc) and this money makes its way down to people who work in those programs like your nephew.

He's decided only his bodyguard army gets paid and no one else.

Everyone else can fuck off and die!

This isn't how a country is supposed to function and stay together as a functioning democracy!
 
I predict the end to the government shut down happening soon.

Powell always states about a dozen times during each FOMC press meeting that they are data dependent.

A rate cut in December was looking likely. No government, no data. No data, no rate cut.

Powell will be gone in March so it almost doesn't matter what he does.
 
Never heard of it.. but looked up their last month.. pump and dump??
See page 77 where I mentioned they had Star Link in a PR and the stock went up 1000% in two days before people realized the hot potato this stock really is.

If the company itself says its own reports can no longer be relied upon and stock falls from 66.00 to .61, that is saying something. I don't know much more than this.
 
See page 77 where I mentioned they had Star Link in a PR and the stock went up 1000% in two days before people realized the hot potato this stock really is.

If the company itself says its own reports can no longer be relied upon and stock falls from 66.00 to .61, that is saying something. I don't know much more than this.
Also, when you get a commercial loan from a bank, you usually sign a loan agreement that states you will provide accurate and up-to-date financial reports on a regular basis, usually quarterly (loan covenants).

If it turns out, your financial statements were inaccurate or misleading then you have technically defaulted (broke loan covenant) and the bank can then demand immediate repayment, or they can seize your assets to recoup the loan. This also happens if business goes bad, but it can be waived temporarily (covenant waiver).

If you deliberately make false statements, you risk being charged with bank fraud.
 
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So.. If Venezuela pops off over the weekend, this is what I got:

Tenaris(TS): produces special pipes that is specific to what Venezuela actually needs to get back online.

Tidewater(TDW): Worlds biggest offshore supply ships.

AES Corp(AES): US energy company with deep local knowhow, perfect positioned to aid in rebuilding.

It's all about the oil right? Even if a deal is made and it doesnt get kinetic it stands to reason the core principle in such a deal is going to be about ... the oil.

I am not in yet, but thinking about it.

Thoughts? 🙂.

(keeping the politics in the PN forum).
 

Yes I can believe it but there's a big difference between AI hype and "Tech" hype.

This past summer.. my old genie garage door wasn't working and I looked up on the internet garage door repair.. was told free estimate.. and I had the guy come over and was quoted $850 to install a new one as the old one couldn't be fixed.

Really thought about it but I couldn't afford it.. looked up youtube DIY and I bought a new motor from Lowes and DIY'ed it with my wife helping.. total price for me $220 with tax ($199 + tax).

Now how much of that additional $650 he quoted me is going to google or yelp to help this guy procure business? Isn't that what Uber does too.. make more money off rides than the driver does?? And how much does amazon make off sales/ ads for sales? How about walmart?

So I might sound silly here but I think while there is totally a bubble for some companies, there are others that will justify their valuation..

Lot easier to find the garbage stocks though. Like no way is spotify's value justified at 50 P/E imho!
 
I'm up 7% YTD
Haven't really been checking my overall YTD recently.

Across all 6 my Fidelity accounts it shows a 19.7% rate of return.

I linked all of my external accounts to Fidelity a couple years ago for tracking purposes. Their Planning section shows a YTD increase of 49.66%. Pretty shocking when I saw it. This includes all the inflows and outflows for all accounts. Income grew greatly while my monthly expenditures haven't really changed much for a long time.
2025 is going to be one of the best years for me if everything holds steady throughout the rest of the year.
 
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