Discussion ***Official*** 2025 Stock Market Thread 💰

[AdamK47]

Thought I mentioned that a while ago but I was called a crazy person and told to just trust index funds as they're diversified.

However with the S&P 500 now having MSTR, COIN and who knows what else in it with these crazy valuations and p/e ratios.. it reminds me of:

Here we go yet again.

How many times does it need to be said to buy into an index fund and average into it over many years?

To you the market was not at its bottom 6 months ago. It was too high 3 months ago. It doesn't make sense to you at any point. It's the news of the day mixed in with conspiracies that's preventing you from starting the journey to financial freedom.

 

[dasherHampton]

I don't mean any of this personally, should some of you have soft spot in your heart for the Gangrenous Old Party. Hate the sin, not the sinner as some preachers of the old timey religion might say. You might not shoot heroin, but would I judge you for boinking a fit, cute junkie - you know, assuming that she still had most of her teeth and the tooth to tattoo ratio was acceptable. Of course not. My knee doesn't jerk every time you hit it (should probably look into that).

But this tariff shit stinks almost as bad as the Epstein shit and most GOP'ers can't even deny it with a straight face any more.

Every singe left leaning economist predicted that the tariffs would crater the economy months ago.

I chose not to blindly believe them and I"m up 30% the last three months. Best three month stretch I think I've ever had. I was up almost $18000 today.

 

[Charmonium]

Every singe left leaning economist predicted that the tariffs would crater the economy months ago.

I chose not to blindly believe them and I"m up 30% the last three months. Best three month stretch I think I've ever had. I was up almost $18000 today.

Congrats dude. That would NOT have been my guess 3 months ago but I don't recall heading for the bunker either. Shrug. Sometimes it's more fun being a spectator.

I think the market wanted to run wild and free and f*ck the odds. I think they'll start pulling back - nothing dramatic but I'm very accustomed to being wrong.

 

[Indus]

Here we go yet again.

How many times does it need to be said to buy into an index fund and average into it over many years?

To you the market was not at its bottom 6 months ago. It was too high 3 months ago. It doesn't make sense to you at any point. It's the news of the day mixed in with conspiracies that's preventing you from starting the journey to financial freedom.

No no no.. you misunderstand me..I don't have a problem with index funds and how they work.

My problem is the crypto included in them which I don't trust.

But since you're on the winning streak and I admit it.. probably in 6 months.. I'll be apologizing again and having to buy bitcoin when it's at 1 mil since the USD won't be able to buy eggs or bread then.

It truly seems sentiment is everything!

 

[AdamK47]

No no no.. you misunderstand me..I don't have a problem with index funds and how they work.

My problem is the crypto included in them which I don't trust.

But since you're on the winning streak and I admit it.. probably in 6 months.. I'll be apologizing again and having to buy bitcoin when it's at 1 mil since the USD won't be able to buy eggs or bread then.

It truly seems sentiment is everything!

The beauty of an S&P 500 index fund is that if a company struggles or goes bust they leave the index and ultimately the fund you invest in. Someone else replaces them. Don't put so much mental thought into COIN being part of it. If they don't perform well enough they exit the fund.

Getting over personal feelings about a company will need to be part of the journey.

 

[Charmonium]

It's the news of the day mixed in with conspiracies that's preventing you from starting the journey to financial freedom.

i wanted to latch on to this bit because we all need to constantly, continuous, viscously, vet our sources. After a while, you won't even need to think about it. But it's not necessarily a pleasant transition.

In IT, one of the oldest and most common bromides is "garbage in, garbage out." Your brain deserves better.

 

[AdamK47]

i wanted to latch on to this bit because we all need to constantly, continuous, viscously, vet our sources. After a while, you won't even need to think about it. But it's not necessarily a pleasant transition.

In IT, one of the oldest and most common bromides is "garbage in, garbage out." Your brain deserves better.

Wise words.

Unfortunately that's not how many of this forum operate.

 

[Charmonium]

Wise words.

Unfortunately that's not how many of this forum operate.

Then they must be . . . re-educated. Yes. That would be very good.

 

[dullard]

Every singe left leaning economist predicted that the tariffs would crater the economy months ago.

Several names please of economists predicting the tariffs would crater the economy.

All of them that I've heard said roughly 0.5% to 1.0% lower GDP growth than would otherwise be achieved. That is, if GDP growth would have been 3%, then with tariffs the growth becomes 2% to 2.5%. Never have I heard an actual economist claim a tanking economy. That is because, a real economist will argue that the dollar will drop in value to offset most of the tariff effects. But, I don't listen to far right news either.

And the fact that virtually all tariffs were delayed until August 7. Meaning, if they actually crater the economy (they won't) the effects won't be until data well after August.

 

[Indus]

Every singe left leaning economist predicted that the tariffs would crater the economy months ago.

I chose not to blindly believe them and I"m up 30% the last three months. Best three month stretch I think I've ever had. I was up almost $18000 today.

Well if you see some no brainer buys.. post away.

 

[cytg111]

Just got out of INTC at ~30 for a nifty 50% return. Nice.
Checking RIOT out for a dance.

 

[AdamK47]

Another great day. VGT closing at $741. It's even at $744 in after hours.

My brokerage account is making all of my retirement accounts seem like they are in standstill.

 

[dasherHampton]

Well if you see some no brainer buys.. post away.

You missed all of my posts about NET? ROKU? NKTR? RKLB? NNE? MU?

 

[Brainonska511]

Vanguard is suggesting clients put more into bonds and less into stocks. I can see moving out of stocks as the price to earnings ratios are whack. Given that bond funds have sucked so hard for so long, I’m having trouble with the idea of putting any money into bonds.

Probably more about capital preservation than anything else. Maybe they think there are storm clouds ahead, especially with the market seemingly out of wack.

 

[Charmonium]

Bonds aren't necessarily immune to a weaker economy. For example, with less activity an energy utility will see revenues fall. That may, or may not, cause their credit rating be revised. And that makes the bonds less valuable.

 

[cytg111]

Probably more about capital preservation than anything else. Maybe they think there are storm clouds ahead, especially with the market seemingly out of wack.

I was plotting the crashes onto gold the other day to show a friend :


But I dont think the crash is yet ... at least 6mo out.

 

[Charmonium]

I would think twice before ignoring gold. It may not be completely rational, but a lot of people get a great sense of security and stability from physical assets - real estate, precious metals, even crypto. And the more the country and economy feel unhinged and unpredictable, the more attractive such things become to a very large swath of the population.

 

[cytg111]

I would think twice before ignoring gold. It may not be completely rational, but a lot of people get a great sense of security and stability from physical assets - real estate, precious metals, even crypto. And the more the country and economy feel unhinged and unpredictable, the more attractive such things become to a very large swath of the population.

Not saying to ignore gold, what I am say is that there has been steep inclines in gold prices up to a kick in the nuts ... and we have never seen one as steep as we see now. The gold buying collective seems to be of the consensus that a GIANT KICK IN THE NUTS are coming.

 

[Brainonska511]

I would think twice before ignoring gold. It may not be completely rational, but a lot of people get a great sense of security and stability from physical assets - real estate, precious metals, even crypto. And the more the country and economy feel unhinged and unpredictable, the more attractive such things become to a very large swath of the population.

You're probably better off with treasuries than paper certificates saying you own some rock in a vault somewhere.

 

[AdamK47]

The H-1B visa kerfuffle will be interesting to see play out on Monday. Haven't bought anything since Sept. 2nd while new money income stacks up. Be nice to have a pullback before the bull run returns.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Effing CoreWeave...137 today. The shorts said it was overvalued at 45 and took it to 33. They said overvalued at 187 and took it to 85.

Now its overvalued at 137 Market cap is 65 billion.

At 200 bill that is $450.00, assuming no more dilution..which is probable they will dilute more. Otherwise I think 280.00 max in 3 years. Unless the shorts win then its sub 100.

 

[Charmonium]

You're probably better off with treasuries than paper certificates saying you own some rock in a vault somewhere.

Well, let me put it this way. I bought all of my gold in the form of US Mint strikes with relatively low mintage limits - that cost me maybe a 50% premium over spot at the time. These days, the premium is virtually criminal.

Anyway, spot at the time was around 1000 and we know where it is today. My sense of time is really distorted but I know did all of my buying before 2008 so I'll guess from maybe 2003 to 2006.

Quadruple the return, on spot gold, over that period is nothing to sneeze at and I'll probably do a lot better than that since the demand for low mintage coins is never going away, especially if I get them graded and happen to luck into a couple PF70s.

Right now, the premium over spot on resales seems to be around $500, so that's a wash at the moment.

I do however understand your skepticism. Gold has gone through decade long periods where the price was stagnant. But I don't think that we're going to see that sort of stagnation again, not when it's a fall back position from crypto.

 

[dullard]

My sense of time is really distorted but I know did all of my buying before 2008 so I'll guess from maybe 2003 to 2006.

Quadruple the return, on spot gold, over that period is nothing to sneeze at.

Achoo.

S&P total return was 7.97x in the last 20 years. Getting only quadruple return is not very good.

 

[Charmonium]

Good point and that's why I'm thoroughly diversified with the vast bulk of my assets in equities.

 

[cytg111]

Every singe left leaning economist predicted that the tariffs would crater the economy months ago.

I chose not to blindly believe them and I"m up 30% the last three months. Best three month stretch I think I've ever had. I was up almost $18000 today.

In terms of money I dont give two shits about politics, I'll buy TSLA if it makes me a coin.
That being said.
30%, three months. Does that sound sustainable to you? I have had a good three months too. Way too good.

My observation is two fold

One, gold is on it's steepest incline in history right now. Take a look at how gold performed up to other big "adjustments".

Two, money seem to migrate in the market at a higher and higher frequency, it's not as much as catching a wave that is built on a foundation of something solid, more so catching the waves that we are creating ourselves by simply moving money around. Like game stop but for pros.
I dont know. I think money is going to move out of the US and into Europe and China.