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Discussion ***Official*** 2025 Stock Market Thread đź’°

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Indus said:
Yeah I can't seem to understand it either.

IMHO could see a return to Obama market levels with these tariffs unless TACO.

Maybe the market is counting on TACO.
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I have enough riding already on the market, so not really missing out on gains. I did cash in a small amount to lock in some gains, and for other money currently sitting on the side, I'm just looking to preserve capital for now or at least have some conservative growth, mainly though MMFs like VMFXX or municipal bond funds (VWALX).
 
Indus said:
Yeah I can't seem to understand it either.

I've downsized to just 1 individual stock and am keeping most of my powder dry in MMF.. missing out on these gains..

Maybe I'm stoopey but going up makes no sense to me. IMHO could see a return to Obama market levels with these tariffs unless TACO.

Maybe the market is counting on TACO.
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As a non-certified non-financial non-analyst, I would highly encourage you to fully invest in the stock market and post your results in this thread.

The market is doing so well that even blunderous mistakes have a chance at making you money.
 
Brainonska511 said:
I have enough riding already on the market, so not really missing out on gains. I did cash in a small amount to lock in some gains, and for other money currently sitting on the side, I'm just looking to preserve capital for now or at least have some conservative growth, mainly though MMFs like VMFXX or municipal bond funds (VWALX).
Click to expand...

Yeah I was looking at some Bond funds like FXNAX incase they were better but apparently I was under the false assumption that bonds don't lose money..

So MMF seems to be the safer bet.

I only have about 5k in 1 stock.. so I'm exposed but not drastically exposed.
 
AdamK47 said:
As a non-certified non-financial non-analyst, I would highly encourage you to fully invest in the stock market and post your results in this thread.

The market is doing so well that even blunderous mistakes have a chance at making you money.
Click to expand...
Depends on what the time horizon is. Someone that invested at the peak before the great recession had to wait a decent bit before their returns became positive.
 
Indus said:
Yeah I can't seem to understand it either.
Click to expand...
Follow the money. The big picture money.

The bond market is bigger than the stock market. Because of that, any movement of money into or away from bonds will be magnified in the stock market. When interest rates drop, new bonds yield less than before*. In that case, big money moves from the bond market to the stock market. Here is one snapshot of the bond market today.
1755875495719.png

* Any bond bought and held to maturity is unaffected, they still pay the profit as prescribed. The long-term value is unchanged. However, for many players who buy and sell bonds repeatedly instead of holding to maturity, the instantaneous temporary value of the bond drastically changes with interest rates. As interest rates drop, the bonds that pay higher interest rates have their instantaneous value go up (and the reverse when interest rates rise). Bonds can gain/lose money, temporarily, if you don't hold to maturity.
 
dullard said:
Follow the money. The big picture money.

The bond market is bigger than the stock market. Because of that, any movement of money into or away from bonds will be magnified in the stock market. When interest rates drop, new bonds yield less than before*. In that case, big money moves from the bond market to the stock market. Here is one snapshot of the bond market today.
View attachment 129091

* Any bond bought and held to maturity is unaffected, they still pay the profit as prescribed. The long-term value is unchanged. However, for many players who buy and sell bonds repeatedly instead of holding to maturity, the instantaneous temporary value of the bond drastically changes with interest rates. As interest rates drop, the bonds that pay higher interest rates have their instantaneous value go up (and the reverse when interest rates rise). Bonds can gain/lose money, temporarily, if you don't hold to maturity.
Click to expand...
Good examples/lessons of the inverse are the 2023 bank failures.
 
AdamK47 said:
As a non-certified non-financial non-analyst, I would highly encourage you to fully invest in the stock market and post your results in this thread.

The market is doing so well that even blunderous mistakes have a chance at making you money.
Click to expand...
If you need an expert on making emotional blunderous mistakes I would like to offer my consultation services.
 
dullard said:
Follow the money. The big picture money.

The bond market is bigger than the stock market. Because of that, any movement of money into or away from bonds will be magnified in the stock market. When interest rates drop, new bonds yield less than before*. In that case, big money moves from the bond market to the stock market. Here is one snapshot of the bond market today.
View attachment 129091

* Any bond bought and held to maturity is unaffected, they still pay the profit as prescribed. The long-term value is unchanged. However, for many players who buy and sell bonds repeatedly instead of holding to maturity, the instantaneous temporary value of the bond drastically changes with interest rates. As interest rates drop, the bonds that pay higher interest rates have their instantaneous value go up (and the reverse when interest rates rise). Bonds can gain/lose money, temporarily, if you don't hold to maturity.
Click to expand...
Wake me up for the corrective rate hikes in 2026.
 
jpiniero said:
Oh thanks for reminding me. Reupped the Rollover IRA into another CD.

Will say that the signs are there that AI hype is dying.
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Trump just issued an EO against anyone speaking ill of AI bros and their investments.

Violators will be sent to a re-education camp at Martha's Vineyard and served wine and cheese.
 
jpiniero said:
Oh thanks for reminding me. Reupped the Rollover IRA into another CD.

Will say that the signs are there that AI hype is dying.
Click to expand...
I would suggest it to be a good thing if you're talking about the report showing 95% of AI endeavors failing.

If/Then levels of AI implementations need to die terribly. The surface level AI pushes that amount to nothing need to disappear. The AI because we want to say we have AI needs to stop.
 
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AdamK47 said:
I would suggest it to be a good thing if you're talking about the report about 95% of AI endeavors failing.

If/Then levels of AI implementations need to die terribly. The surface level AI pushes that amount to nothing need to disappear. The AI because we want to say we have AI needs to stop.
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Yo dawg! We heard you like AI so we slapped a bank of 1970s era 8-bit processors onto our most advanced chips and put an AI ready sticker on the box!
 
IronWing said:
Yo dawg! We heard you like AI so we slapped a bank of 1970s era 8-bit processors onto our most advanced chips and put an AI ready sticker on the box!
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Or release a keyboard with the single new feature being a key that brings up copilot.

This low effort release worked too well for Microsoft. It somehow was a top news item for days.
 
AdamK47 said:
Or release a keyboard with the single new feature being a key that brings up copilot.

This low effort release worked too well for Microsoft. It somehow was a top news item for days.
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I had ignored that previously but I just realized that they replaced to Right-Ctrl key, those bastards! For us lefties, that key is mapped to "crouch" in every game. Fortunately, I can remap it.
 
AdamK47 said:
I would suggest it to be a good thing if you're talking about the report showing 95% of AI endeavors failing.

If/Then levels of AI implementations need to die terribly. The surface level AI pushes that amount to nothing need to disappear. The AI because we want to say we have AI needs to stop.
Click to expand...

IIRC, those were just generative AI projects. I have no idea what % of the overall AI market that constitutes though.

Generative AI was and continues to be enormously unprofitable from what I’ve read.
 
AdamK47 said:
I would suggest it to be a good thing if you're talking about the report showing 95% of AI endeavors failing.

If/Then levels of AI implementations need to die terribly. The surface level AI pushes that amount to nothing need to disappear. The AI because we want to say we have AI needs to stop.
Click to expand...

The AI bubble bursting would be enough to crash the stock market.
 
dasherHampton said:
I'll offer my -2 cents as well.

Good day today so far(duh). I sold a loser (NNDM) and replaced it with ATAI.

Do you have an opinion on UUUU?
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I see Energy Fuels might have upwards momentum. How much is anyone's guess though.

What did you do with Roblox? Turned out to be a winner despite the doubts.
 
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FelixDeCat said:
I see Energy Fuels might have upwards momentum. How much is anyone's guess though.

What did you do with Roblox? Turned out to be a winner despite the doubts.
Click to expand...

I let the short sellers get to me and sold at around $66. I kept on reading articles about how RBLX is about to get hit with a wave of lawsuits over child endangerment and decided to get out. Not a bad profit considering I bought at around $40 but still unfortunate.

My two targets for today (LYTS and SCSC) are unfortunately popping premarket. May have missed the boat.
 
dasherHampton said:
I let the short sellers get to me and sold at around $66. I kept on reading articles about how RBLX is about to get hit with a wave of lawsuits over child endangerment and decided to get out. Not a bad profit considering I bought at around $40 but still unfortunate.

My two targets for today (LYTS and SCSC) are unfortunately popping premarket. May have missed the boat.
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I almost wish I bought Roblox at 66.00. There are a lot of videos on YT talking about their legal situation but one by Legal Eagle suggesting they may survive it all relatively unscathed but they do question their ethical behavior having millions of unpaid contributors building the brand and how 10.00 in Roblux is worth 2.32 or less ...before they nickle and dime you more.
 
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