Discussion ***Official*** 2025 Stock Market Thread 💰

[Brainonska511]

Yeah I can't seem to understand it either.

IMHO could see a return to Obama market levels with these tariffs unless TACO.

Maybe the market is counting on TACO.

I have enough riding already on the market, so not really missing out on gains. I did cash in a small amount to lock in some gains, and for other money currently sitting on the side, I'm just looking to preserve capital for now or at least have some conservative growth, mainly though MMFs like VMFXX or municipal bond funds (VWALX).

 

[AdamK47]

Yeah I can't seem to understand it either.

I've downsized to just 1 individual stock and am keeping most of my powder dry in MMF.. missing out on these gains..

Maybe I'm stoopey but going up makes no sense to me. IMHO could see a return to Obama market levels with these tariffs unless TACO.

Maybe the market is counting on TACO.

As a non-certified non-financial non-analyst, I would highly encourage you to fully invest in the stock market and post your results in this thread.

The market is doing so well that even blunderous mistakes have a chance at making you money.

 

[Indus]

I have enough riding already on the market, so not really missing out on gains. I did cash in a small amount to lock in some gains, and for other money currently sitting on the side, I'm just looking to preserve capital for now or at least have some conservative growth, mainly though MMFs like VMFXX or municipal bond funds (VWALX).

Yeah I was looking at some Bond funds like FXNAX incase they were better but apparently I was under the false assumption that bonds don't lose money..

So MMF seems to be the safer bet.

I only have about 5k in 1 stock.. so I'm exposed but not drastically exposed.

 

[Brainonska511]

As a non-certified non-financial non-analyst, I would highly encourage you to fully invest in the stock market and post your results in this thread.

The market is doing so well that even blunderous mistakes have a chance at making you money.

Depends on what the time horizon is. Someone that invested at the peak before the great recession had to wait a decent bit before their returns became positive.

 

[dullard]

Yeah I can't seem to understand it either.

Follow the money. The big picture money.

The bond market is bigger than the stock market. Because of that, any movement of money into or away from bonds will be magnified in the stock market. When interest rates drop, new bonds yield less than before*. In that case, big money moves from the bond market to the stock market. Here is one snapshot of the bond market today.


* Any bond bought and held to maturity is unaffected, they still pay the profit as prescribed. The long-term value is unchanged. However, for many players who buy and sell bonds repeatedly instead of holding to maturity, the instantaneous temporary value of the bond drastically changes with interest rates. As interest rates drop, the bonds that pay higher interest rates have their instantaneous value go up (and the reverse when interest rates rise). Bonds can gain/lose money, temporarily, if you don't hold to maturity.

 

[AdamK47]

Follow the money. The big picture money.

The bond market is bigger than the stock market. Because of that, any movement of money into or away from bonds will be magnified in the stock market. When interest rates drop, new bonds yield less than before*. In that case, big money moves from the bond market to the stock market. Here is one snapshot of the bond market today.
View attachment 129091

* Any bond bought and held to maturity is unaffected, they still pay the profit as prescribed. The long-term value is unchanged. However, for many players who buy and sell bonds repeatedly instead of holding to maturity, the instantaneous temporary value of the bond drastically changes with interest rates. As interest rates drop, the bonds that pay higher interest rates have their instantaneous value go up (and the reverse when interest rates rise). Bonds can gain/lose money, temporarily, if you don't hold to maturity.

Good examples/lessons of the inverse are the 2023 bank failures.

 

[jpiniero]

Oh thanks for reminding me. Reupped the Rollover IRA into another CD.

Will say that the signs are there that AI hype is dying.

 

[FelixDeCat]

As a non-certified non-financial non-analyst, I would highly encourage you to fully invest in the stock market and post your results in this thread.

The market is doing so well that even blunderous mistakes have a chance at making you money.

If you need an expert on making emotional blunderous mistakes I would like to offer my consultation services.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Follow the money. The big picture money.

The bond market is bigger than the stock market. Because of that, any movement of money into or away from bonds will be magnified in the stock market. When interest rates drop, new bonds yield less than before*. In that case, big money moves from the bond market to the stock market. Here is one snapshot of the bond market today.
View attachment 129091

* Any bond bought and held to maturity is unaffected, they still pay the profit as prescribed. The long-term value is unchanged. However, for many players who buy and sell bonds repeatedly instead of holding to maturity, the instantaneous temporary value of the bond drastically changes with interest rates. As interest rates drop, the bonds that pay higher interest rates have their instantaneous value go up (and the reverse when interest rates rise). Bonds can gain/lose money, temporarily, if you don't hold to maturity.

Wake me up for the corrective rate hikes in 2026.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Oh thanks for reminding me. Reupped the Rollover IRA into another CD.

Will say that the signs are there that AI hype is dying.

Trump just issued an EO against anyone speaking ill of AI bros and their investments.

Violators will be sent to a re-education camp at Martha's Vineyard and served wine and cheese.

 

[dasherHampton]

If you need an expert on making emotional blunderous mistakes I would like to offer my consultation services.

I'll offer my -2 cents as well.

Good day today so far(duh). I sold a loser (NNDM) and replaced it with ATAI.

Do you have an opinion on UUUU?

 

[AdamK47]

Oh thanks for reminding me. Reupped the Rollover IRA into another CD.

Will say that the signs are there that AI hype is dying.

I would suggest it to be a good thing if you're talking about the report showing 95% of AI endeavors failing.

If/Then levels of AI implementations need to die terribly. The surface level AI pushes that amount to nothing need to disappear. The AI because we want to say we have AI needs to stop.

 

[IronWing]

I would suggest it to be a good thing if you're talking about the report about 95% of AI endeavors failing.

If/Then levels of AI implementations need to die terribly. The surface level AI pushes that amount to nothing need to disappear. The AI because we want to say we have AI needs to stop.

Yo dawg! We heard you like AI so we slapped a bank of 1970s era 8-bit processors onto our most advanced chips and put an AI ready sticker on the box!

 

[Indus]

Yo dawg! We heard you like AI so we slapped a bank of 1970s era 8-bit processors onto our most advanced chips and put an AI ready sticker on the box!

I wish I had some TESLA to sell him.. but alas I couldn't talk myself into buying that.

 

[AdamK47]

Yo dawg! We heard you like AI so we slapped a bank of 1970s era 8-bit processors onto our most advanced chips and put an AI ready sticker on the box!

Or release a keyboard with the single new feature being a key that brings up copilot.

This low effort release worked too well for Microsoft. It somehow was a top news item for days.

 

[IronWing]

Or release a keyboard with the single new feature being a key that brings up copilot.

This low effort release worked too well for Microsoft. It somehow was a top news item for days.

I had ignored that previously but I just realized that they replaced to Right-Ctrl key, those bastards! For us lefties, that key is mapped to "crouch" in every game. Fortunately, I can remap it.

 

[Roger Wilco]

I would suggest it to be a good thing if you're talking about the report showing 95% of AI endeavors failing.

If/Then levels of AI implementations need to die terribly. The surface level AI pushes that amount to nothing need to disappear. The AI because we want to say we have AI needs to stop.

IIRC, those were just generative AI projects. I have no idea what % of the overall AI market that constitutes though.

Generative AI was and continues to be enormously unprofitable from what I’ve read.

 

[jpiniero]

I would suggest it to be a good thing if you're talking about the report showing 95% of AI endeavors failing.

If/Then levels of AI implementations need to die terribly. The surface level AI pushes that amount to nothing need to disappear. The AI because we want to say we have AI needs to stop.

The AI bubble bursting would be enough to crash the stock market.