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Discussion ***Official*** 2025 Stock Market Thread đź’°

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Indus said:
You buying or you gonna wait?
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Overdue 5 to 10% technical bounce. I mentioned all this a few posts above.

Nothing changed so you can trade this bounce but be careful.

First quarter earnings may stabilize things as they will be good but that is like a picture of a car before it got into an accident.
 
dullard said:
The general concept is still true. Buy low, sell high. We are low now. The real question is how much lower will we go.
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It also depends entirely on your time horizons.

If you're buying ETFs or specific stocks, you could always split the amount you want to invest into a series of limit orders at different levels to hedge against further slides (ie, limit buy at $85, $80, $75...).
 
Brainonska511 said:
It also depends entirely on your time horizons.

If you're buying ETFs or specific stocks, you could always split the amount you want to invest into a series of limit orders at different levels to hedge against further slides (ie, limit buy at $85, $80, $75...).
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You always do limit order at price via 180 day GTC instead of weekly investment?
 
Indus said:
You always do limit order at price via 180 day GTC instead of weekly investment?
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It depends what my goals are.

If there is a lot of volatility in the price and I am expecting a drop, sure, use a limit order.

If it's for the long term and things a bit more stable day to day, market order is fine.

And in other cases, I only have mutual funds, so end of day pricing only...
 
This is why I hate the "short vol" crowd and I always have.

First we have this:

1000003651.jpg

Then we have this:

1000003652.jpg

Markets fall 5% and volatility spikes, markets go up 5% and volatility crashes. Up and down are both volatile.

I hate this.

Also it was a market rumor of a 90 day pause on tariffs yesterday from a speech given by billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Ackman.

Today the word is " let's go up on trade negotiations and Republican rebellion over tariffs."
 
I think the market is going to rally on gaps in rhetoric cause it's basically running on "if we believe hard enough a bull market will come true".

Then reality is going to slap everyone across the face like a cold dead wet fish.

Basically the story of the AI bubble, but sort of in reverse.
 
GodisanAtheist said:
I think the market is going to rally on gaps in rhetoric cause it's basically running on "if we believe hard enough a bull market will come true".

Then reality is going to slap everyone across the face like a cold dead wet fish.

Basically the story of the AI bubble, but sort of in reverse.
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Yea, I'm not putting money back in until I'm sure we averted a recession. Even if he backs off on the tariffs in a few months, it could be too late.
 
JTsyo said:
Yea, I'm not putting money back in until I'm sure we averted a recession. Even if he backs off on the tariffs in a few months, it could be too late.
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Until there is a sustained retreat by him from all this idiocy I am sitting out. I don't mean like a couple days I mean months. Really doubt that is likely for this year.
 
Intraday QQQ went from 443 to 417 ...amazing and like I said...dead cat bounce. I think QQQ 372 would be another tradable bottom.
 
Correct, the dead cat has had at least one bounce now. Although, I'm pretty sure most dead cat bounces last at least a few weeks. Maybe it just bounced off the side of the cliff as it fell, rather than bouncing off the floor.

One more bad day lower and I'm going to start trickling in (small cap stocks). I was kicking myself for not buying much in the lows of 2022 and 2023. So, I don't want to miss out on an opportunity again. But, I will proceed cautiously as there is still a lot of volatility and hopefully chances to buy even lower.
 
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dullard said:
Correct, the dead cat has had at least one bounce now. Although, I'm pretty sure most dead cat bounces last at least a few weeks. Maybe it just bounced off the side of the cliff as it fell, rather than bouncing off the floor.

One more bad day lower and I'm going to start trickling in (small cap stocks). I was kicking myself for not buying much in the lows of 2022 and 2023. So, I don't want to miss out on an opportunity again. But, I will proceed cautiously as there is still a lot of volatility and hopefully chances to buy even lower.
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This made me laugh:

dead-cat-bounce-2008_big-331402138.jpg
 
FelixDeCat said:
And post market the QQQs are off another 2.00%, probably another sell off tomorrow..
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So far, yes another sell off. S&P futures briefly entered and then exited bear market territory overnight. I don't put a lot of value into futures for indicating the whole US market. But with most of Europe and Asia also down big, then altogether the data points to a likelihood of an official bear market.
 
^ Dude. Why do you think Im here to champion tariffs or pretend to be maga?

Nobody "likes" tariffs, everybody likes cheap prices. Everybody.

But badgering me or accusing me of being a red cap wearing fan is becoming tiresome. I don't even use FB or if so just for space related star gazing.
 
dullard said:
So far, yes another sell off. S&P futures briefly entered and then exited bear market territory overnight. I don't put a lot of value into futures for indicating the whole US market. But with most of Europe and Asia also down big, then altogether the data points to a likelihood of an official bear market.
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Premarket is stabilizing might be sellers are exhausted for now waiting for good bank earnings next week.
 
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