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Discussion ***Official*** 2025 Stock Market Thread 💰

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ccryder said:
Heard a PIMCO guy this morning say never try to catch a falling knife.
Good advice.
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Indeed. The best strategy is to kind of wait and see. Definitely don't sell if you don't have to. Though, you could use limit orders to set up some buys at steeper discounts if you're planning to hold something very long term, like in a retirement fund.
 
njdevilsfan87 said:
Even he was to renege all of the tariffs today, the market doesn't like uncertainty. It becomes too much of a casino at that point. You can't plan for growth in this environment.

1 year of gains now gone. We're actually getting close to some 2021 highs which is probably where the line will hold for a little bit. Imagine having bought an index fund in October of 2021 and being in the red soon. That's the panic button for a lot of people, imo because it could put years of compounding since then as a loss too depending on what the cost average is.
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Oh yeah it would take a few years at this point. The issue is he keeps flip flopping so nobody knows from one day to the next what's going on. Like right now Canada is exempt but for how long? lol.

The ones getting rich are not the average folk like us but the ones who are more on the inside.
 
I am pretty sure we are going lower next week with Powell out of the way.

There are two types of tariffs...baseline that all countries must pay and reciprocal payback tariffs.

The only dead cat bounce might come from removal of tit for tat reciprocal as some countries relent but the baseline remains.

The purpose of baseline is to prevent cheating by running goods through lower tariff countries.
 
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K1052 said:
Trump says a lot of things. Anyway the tariff rate he set for them isn't actually based on anything Vietnam charges us, it's based on the trade deficit. A lot of companies expanded or moved to Vietnam to dodge trade friction with China which expanded their trade deficit with the US substantially.
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Nintendo just announced they are not going to take preorders in the US for Switch 2 because of the VN tariffs.

It's so on like Donkey Kong.
 
GodisanAtheist said:
Well, I'm out a couple international vacations after yesterday's numbers.

Time to HODL with my 💎 👐

Never been good at timing a market, so instead of pulling out I'm just not going to put anything in. Thoughts on where future funds should be directed?
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Seems like the only real safe bet is Money Market. Ive been hiding there for years in my 401k. Since 2021 Ive been about 95% MM and 5% stocks, contributing to stocks since late 2024 biweekly as the market goes lower and lower.

Maybe 3.6 years from now we will see these levels again. 😱
 
FelixDeCat said:
Seems like the only real safe bet is Money Market. Ive been hiding there for years in my 401k. Since 2021 Ive been about 95% MM and 5% stocks, contributing to stocks biweekly as the market goes lower and lower.
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Unless you were retired (and even then), that sounds awful. You missed out on nearly 4 years of stock market growth and dividends constantly thinking recession was around the corner.
 
JTsyo said:
Not sure why KKR has been dropping faster than the market, down 40% YTD. You would think with a slowdown they would be in position to gobble up more things. Didn't see anything to indicate they are leveraged. I was looking to sell covered calls in Jan since it was around $150 and I wanted to pull some money out for projects in June. Now it's down to $90.
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If you are looking for a long term bottom to grab on to, it looks like its going to be 50 to 60:

1743788234437.png

This assumes we keep going lower, which seems likely, but anything is possible.
 
sold ~third of a million of VTI for $20k loss. Bought a blend of VOO, VTV and VXUS in its place. Might as well get this garbage government to cover some of my tax bill.
 
Artorias said:
Any recommend gold/precious metal funds to allocate 10-15% of a portfolio?
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The GLD ans SLV etfs have been around forever and are very liquid.

SLV hasn't been that great over 5 years:

1743788902101.png

However GLD has been outperforming over 5 years:

1743789006621.png
 
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Brainonska511 said:
Unless you were retired (and even then), that sounds awful. You missed out on nearly 4 years of stock market growth and dividends constantly thinking recession was around the corner.
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I did the same.. but I got double screwed..

I put money into power index annuities in 2018/ 2019 which locked me in till now and a few months.

Then I put some savings into stocks which tanked 30%.

I can't seem to do much right.

Well ok I guess the annuity money is still safe!

Or maybe if Trump intentionally tanks the market to 2017 levels.. then maybe I didn't do anything bad.
 
Brainonska511 said:
If I recall, it's $3k to use it as a deduction against ordinary income. But it doesn't have a cap for offsetting capital gains. And you can carry forward losses.
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Ah I believe you are correct.

Initial unemployment claims actually went down last week. We'll see how long it takes for that to change.
 
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