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Discussion ***Official*** 2025 Stock Market Thread 💰

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People crying about tariffs on CNBC is hilarious. They hate it when the apple cart is disturbed. They have a trading plan and they do it by the standard calendar. Screw with the standard trading calendar or suggest there is no fed put and they complain.

Times change. Expect more volatility and uncertainty the next 4 years. Trump is not a typical politician fat cat.
 
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FelixDeCat said:
People crying about tariffs on CNBC is hilarious. They hate it when the apple cart is disturbed. They have a trading plan and they do it by the standard calendar. Screw with the standard trading calendar or suggest there is no fed put and they complain.
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Why do you think flipping over the table is a good strategy to run an economy? Do you think people are more likely or less likely to invest and spend if there is greater uncertainty going forward?

If your entire political and economic philosophy is "owning other people", you should lose your ability to make your own choices.
 
You are suggesting I am in favor of chaos. In a way, I am but not destructively. I like volatility but I am not trying to "own" anyone.
 
There are all sorts of people in the market those who short market volatility on the upside (shorting calls) or downside (shorting puts).

I remember watching these videos about 10 years ago about a woman who was new to trading and started with 60,000. Within a few years she made millions shorting stock and index puts on a regular basis and rolling all profits into the next trade.

For example she would short S&P index puts 90 days out about 7% lower than today's price. I assume she shorted puts because of the Fed and politicians always running to the markets defense.

Fast forward a few more years and she is running a fund with $50m and has a team of people analyzing the market shorting puts and calls and market futures.

Initially she sold them hedged to limit downside risk but eventually sold them naked to juice the returns. Returns were big and best of all repeatable.

However a market black swan hit her naked short positions one day and she lost a large amount of money but hid it from investors by matching gains against it for a few months.

Eventually they were caught and she was sanctioned by the SEC, no longer able to run a fund.

Incredible story.
 
FelixDeCat said:
Incredible story.
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All trading schemes like that work quite well...until they don't. Since there is no underlying value or underlying profit in that scheme, it is just a house of cards. Schemes like that are unlike owning stocks in a company which does have underlying value and probably profit (companies always have at least some salvage value and if you invest right should have some profit to keep giving yourself). The key is knowing to get out before the house of cards crashes. Because once a house like that crashes, it all comes down and you lose almost everything. Few people are humble enough and/or bright enough to get out while they are doing well.

I'll say it over and over again: I much prefer the get rich slowly method that is tried and true. Buy a lot of diversified stocks and wait.
 
I guess the point I was trying to make is a lot of people make money shorting volatility in markets and they are very good at it. It was a legitimate model and business anyone can replicate. Her problem was risk management trying to beat her own returns with 10s of millions at risk.

She forgot that the more money you have the harder it is make 100% a year. You reach a certain point where you pretty much move markets and have to buy and hold like Buffet. So she took a risk with unhedged positions she got away with for years. I guess it's ok when it's just your money but when you do it with other people's money that's when it gets worse.

I will endeavor to find the videos this evening as I am at work now.

It is really a good watch.
 
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Also because of Trump's unpredictable nature and resulting market volatility up and down it might be harder (I think) to do something like this.

I think you need gradually ascending markets to do it with slight volatility to make money.
 
Palantir 100$ after hours.

My dad and brother own it and will both be happy. So many analysts pooh poohed it and some even put a sell rating with a 53$ valuation.

But here we are.
 
Brainonska511 said:
If you are rationally supporting the current actions of a mad president, you're just an asshole.
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Hopefully it's just about the market and not what happens in real life, but obviously what happens in real life affects the market.

One thing is to thrive in a chaotic stock market, and if you can't handle the "waves" you shouldn't be in it, but saying that you want the real world to be chaotic so your stock market can also be it is quite a different thing. I would rather have "Peace on Earth" than earn on the the stock market if they where opposites, which I don't believe they have to be. But that is for the politicians to ensure.
 
Trump NEEDS the attention. I don't know what happened to him in childhood that makes him so needy but I almost feel bad for him. It must be like a junkie always craving that next fix. That's no way to live, or in this case, pretend to live.

I think he knows that no one actually listens to him any more. Then along comes Elon to provide him with the "validation" he so desperately needs. It's great that the little people love him, at least in his mind, but they're worthless. He wants the admiration of the people that HE admires and Musk is helping to feed that need.

In essence, we have an unelected oligarch (or kleptocrat) deciding policies that will actually end in human suffering and death - witness the closing of USAID.

Personally, I think things are going to get a lot worse before they get better and nothing short of a universal groundswell of opposition, anger and disgust is even going to move the needle.
 
Paypal down today 12.5%

Interesting.. didn't expect that but then again I tend to stay away from Thiel products.. sorry Felix.. but glad you're making out!
 
I was just wondering why all my index funds had these sudden drops, while the YTD revenue was still normal, then I realized is was the date for dividends payouts. 😛

(All of which are set to automatically re-invest)
 
jpiniero said:
I've come to the conclusion that the Tariffs (well most of them) aren't real and it's just a distraction for whatever it is Trump is really doing.

As to what Trump is really doing? Well...
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What does a person do who's been stealing from others all his life?
 
Tomorrow is going to be interesting for sure.

Since Net was falling fast when I sold it I was able to get enough for the puts at 130 to keep my cost basis at around 140. Now if NET pops after earnings it will suck but I'm not going to look back. What's done is done.

I hope it stays in the 130's so I can get back in unscathed.
 
Got to admit the whole Trump thing might end up being good for everyone. It forces other countries to rethink trade and diversify more. Also I didn't know this, but within Canada there are lot of barriers when it comes to trading even between provinces or even just passing through them. It's literally easier for us to trade south with the US than within Canada! This is something that needs to change.

globalnews.ca

Trump tariff threat reignites push to slash barriers to trade inside Canada | Globalnews.ca

There are no tariffs on trade between Canadian provinces. But barriers do exist including inconsistent regulations, rules around transportation and provincial protectionism.
globalnews.ca globalnews.ca
 
PayPal/Honey is going to get murdered and lose the class action suits against them. Honey was stealing referral money by hijacking referral codes last minute while claiming to find you the best coupons (and not actually doing this).
Indus said:
Paypal down today 12.5%

Interesting.. didn't expect that but then again I tend to stay away from Thiel products.. sorry Felix.. but glad you're making out!
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Still shifting some of my SPY and total US market holdings to a blend of US value, US total bond market and total international stock market.

I’ve been doing some math and realized I don’t need these fake 25% big tech returns. All I need is to preserve what I have, make like 4-6% on it, and keep saving and I’ll be able to fuck off and quit before my unborn son’s 8th birthday. Not that I’m sure I’ll want to but the flexibility would be nice.
 
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