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Discussion ***Official*** 2025 Stock Market Thread 💰

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Indus said:
View attachment 116097

Thoughts anyone??
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4. Yup, you only should have cash if you know you will need them within 1-2 years, and to stay liquid.
5. Bonds can be fine for short time investments, where you will need to cash out within 3-5 years. If you have a longer time horizon then stocks.
I do 6, but also 7, but I remain 100% passive, so it's not like some weird quantum mechanic, will change the outcome of 6 😛

8. Completely false where I live.

10. Bitcoin is a product I'm never going to "invest" in.

No opinion on 1,2,3,9
 
BTW @FelixDeCat I installed a fresh copy of LMDE on virtual to show you how you will find it just after an install so you have a feel for things.

Most people get intimidated by something that's unknown but doesn't this just look familiar?

This first shot is without me doing a single tweak. I didn't even increase font size.

What you would do next is go to the taskbar menu, to all applications you need to get to System Settings to increase font size, and Software Manager to install programs.

It's all there.
Screenshot from 2025-02-04 22-38-25.png
 
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@Indus I wouldn't take those rules you quoted too seriously. I don't have the patience to go through them one by one but company earnings DO, ABSOLUTELY matter. The problem with them though is that P/E ratios - compare a current parameter (price) with a dated one (past earnings).

The more current method of looking at expected future earnings is a better metric but it's a moving target. For well established firms, predicted future earnings shouldn't vary too much from expectations but you CAN get black swans that screw everything up.

That's why you need to be in market long term. It's also why you need to diversify.

I think you said you bought 6 stocks. Surprisingly, as long as they're not all in the same economic sector or closely related sectors, you're already getting a good chunk of the benefit of diversification.
 
Not even down 2% … wouldn’t hurt too bad at all to de-risk a bit more tomorrow if that holds.
 
Going to be interesting to see what happens to the stock market tomorrow.

Might be a good time to buy the dip though... I don't think this tariff stuff will last. Absolute worse case scenario, all of Trump's term, but I have a feeling it will be before that.

I'm just glad I bought my batteries for my UPS upgrade. Those will most likely go up in price starting tomorrow. Also ordered an inverter, I was going to wait for that one, as my goal was to buy a 2nd battery string once I have enough money saved up, but I had enough now for the inverter. I have an account specifically for this sort of thing. Had been saving up for a few years.
 
FelixDeCat said:
Futures not liking tariffs.
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Not much of a surprise. This shit is going to bleed out into the economy quickly.

I'm sort of happy since Trump is basically guaranteeing that the House turns over like a flapjack. For the Senate, not sure how many Rs are in the 1/3 of the body up for election in 2026. I really hope it's more than 3 or 4. Statistically, I would expect so.
 
Charmonium said:
For the Senate, not sure how many Rs are in the 1/3 of the body up for election in 2026. I really hope it's more than 3 or 4. Statistically, I would expect so.
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13 D senator spots are up. 22 R spots are up. This is a bit more than 1/3 due to needing to replace JD Vance and Marco Rubio.
 
dullard said:
Right about 2% down now. But might be a crypto bloodbath since crypto moves similarly to stocks but with a multiplier.
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Good, I hope the crypto grift implodes.

I managed to unload some VOO from an old account I wanted to close anyway at only 1.4% down this morning for something like a 38% gain. Low single digit % of my portfolio but still a good chunk of cash to keep safe. I’m still losing tons of money on paper on the other 85ish%.
 
repoman0 said:
Good, I hope the crypto grift implodes.

I managed to unload some VOO from an old account I wanted to close anyway at only 1.4% down this morning for something like a 38% gain. Low single digit % of my portfolio but still a good chunk of cash to keep safe. I’m still losing tons of money on paper on the other 85ish%.
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No ETFs to dump today, but I did set up a sale of one part of a mutual fund I had. Potential to lock in a small amount of gains (but also okay with a small capital loss to use for taxes later). Just figured I'd free up a little extra cash beyond what I had sitting in US Treasuries and municipalities bonds for the coming fire sales.
 
Brainonska511 said:
No ETFs to dump today, but I did set up a sale of one part of a mutual fund I had. Potential to lock in a small amount of gains (but also okay with a small capital loss to use for taxes later). Just figured I'd free up a little extra cash beyond what I had sitting in US Treasuries and municipalities bonds for the coming fire sales.
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You know all of this but — timing the market is unwise and there are no guarantees that there will be fire sales. I’m not anticipating buying back in cheap with this cash, I just want a slightly higher cash allocation in a riskier world and the tariff BS was my impetus to start making that change. I’m talking 3-5% cash, 20% bonds, 75-80% equities.

Also spent most of my free cash on an addition to my house over the past few months so I wanted to replace that
 
repoman0 said:
You know all of this but — timing the market is unwise and there are no guarantees that there will be fire sales. I’m not anticipating buying back in cheap with this cash, I just want a slightly higher cash allocation in a riskier world and the tariff BS was my impetus to start making that change. I’m talking 3-5% cash, 20% bonds, 75-80% equities.

Also spent most of my free cash on an addition to my house over the past few months so I wanted to replace that
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Yeah, I know there is no timing things. It's only a small amount of money (like, $1k in paper long term gains over about a year or two). Plus, I had been thinking of tax loss harvesting later in the year because I might be close to the Roth IRA AGI limit this year. Just builds in some headroom.
 
Brainonska511 said:
Yeah, I know there is no timing things. It's only a small amount of money (like, $1k in paper long term gains over about a year or two). Plus, I had been thinking of tax loss harvesting later in the year because I might be close to the Roth IRA AGI limit this year. Just builds in some headroom.
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Backdoor Roth if you’re worried about it. Not sure about vanguard but Fidelity has a built in process in their UI. Works best if you have no assets in traditional IRAs.
 
repoman0 said:
Backdoor Roth if you’re worried about it. Not sure about vanguard but Fidelity has a built in process in their UI. Works best if you have no assets in traditional IRAs.
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I don't think I can do a backdoor Roth easily. I have a large, traditional IRA which I think complicates things.
 
repoman0 said:
It does indeed
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In fairness, I'm not particularly worried about losing access to a Roth once I hit the threshold. Once my spouse starts residency, that gives us access to another 401k/403b vehicle, and I'm already making out my 401k. We'll have plenty of retirement savings at the rate we're going, and I don't personally mind having to pay taxes.
 
FelixDeCat said:
^I was just being silly. Reading between the lines, all I want is lower stock prices.
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Yeah, we all want lower prices when buying. But many of us are not doing buying stocks right now, or they live on fixed income in retirement. Or want to keep our jobs because we're reliant on clients remaining going concerns...

Maybe we shouldn't have leaders randomly inflict economic pain on all of us because they're complete fucking morons.
 
I didn't buy anything today.. then again I only had $36 free in my brokerage account but maybe going forward I should keep a bit of a reserve for when shit hits the fan.

Did shit hit the fan today? Don't think so.. just normal trading range.
 
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