Discussion ***Official*** 2025 Stock Market Thread 💰

[IronWing]

Is it time to short the market?

No. Friday was the time to short the market. Today is the day to mope about not shorting the market on Friday.

 

[dullard]

No. Friday was the time to short the market. Today is the day to mope about not shorting the market on Friday.

For me, today is the day to start looking for bargains again. Or to start look into market imbalances to rebalance into. I love occasional rebalances: selling high and buying low is then possible no matter what the stock market is doing since all that matters is how one fund performs compared to the other funds (and not absolute dollar values). For example, today Large Growth stocks are tanking down 3.44%, but Large Value stocks are up 1.14%. That makes a net 4.58% swing between the two funds worth looking into.

I underlined "start" because I don't believe in rushing to every whim of the news cycle. If this is a temporary blip, then I certainly don't want to react to temporary events. If this is a long-term thing, then I have plenty of time to make my decisions and probably much better trading opportunities in the future.

 

[jpiniero]

I underlined "start" because I don't believe in rushing to every whim of the news cycle. If this is a temporary blip, then I certainly don't want to react to temporary events. If this is a long-term thing, then I have plenty of time to make my decisions and probably much better trading opportunities in the future.

But AI is completely fueled by hype. And since Tech Stocks in general are basically 40% of the market, just AI hype ending could easily cause a massive downturn.

 

[dullard]

But AI is completely fueled by hype. And since Tech Stocks in general are basically 40% of the market, just AI hype ending could easily cause a massive downturn.

Which if true, would mean buying now with just a 2% downturn to be bad. I'd rather wait until that massive downturn occurs to buy. I don't like to catch falling knives. I'll wait until I see it hit the floor to buy.

 

[Indus]

Which if true, would mean buying now with just a 2% downturn to be bad. I'd rather wait until that massive downturn occurs to buy. I don't like to catch falling knives. I'll wait until I see it hit the floor to buy.

Considering I just did.. your advice is golden.

I didn't see anything friday though that this deep seek thing was going to happen!

 

[Artorias]

Time to go consumer defensive and buy some Coke? Good ol' classic Procter & Gamble Co?

 

[Charmonium]

I'm interested to see how the Fed handles Trump-flation. I guess it's going to depend mainly on how many products and commodities his tariffs affect. My impression at the moment is that it's a metric butt load.

Does monetary theory even deal with tariffs? We've been a mostly free market for so long I don't think they even cover this in b-school. Not that I recall anyway.

I mean, you can go ahead and raise interest rates, but if the underlying economy is on the down curve of the business cycle, that's not a great idea.

May you live in interesting times - as the old Chinese curse goes.

 

[jpiniero]

I'm interested to see how the Fed handles Trump-flation. I guess it's going to depend mainly on how many products and commodities his tariffs affect. My impression at the moment is that it's a metric butt load.

Right now the steepness of the cuts is very low (only three cuts by the end of next year) and there's even a bit of gambling there might even be hikes eventually.

 

[dasherHampton]

Holy shit NET

 

[biostud]

3% YTD

Best performer currently is Euro STOXX 600 with 5.19% YTD

 

[repoman0]

I have really been sleeping on muni bonds in my taxable accounts. Mass muni bond funds on vanguard and fidelity both have ~4% yield to maturity for average durations around 7 years, with no fed or state taxes. In the 35% bracket that’s equivalent to around 6% yield from treasuries. That’s pretty solid for a safe asset.

 

[Brainonska511]

I have really been sleeping on muni bonds in my taxable accounts. Mass muni bond funds on vanguard and fidelity both have ~4% yield to maturity for average durations around 7 years, with no fed or state taxes. In the 35% bracket that’s equivalent to around 6% yield from treasuries. That’s pretty solid for an ultra safe asset.

I've had this in my own taxable investments for as long as I've lived in MA, but I might dump it later this year. Decent chance I'm leaving the state, which would mean looking for a different state tax-exempt/federally tax exempt combination fund...

 

[repoman0]

I've had this in my own taxable investments for as long as I've lived in MA, but I might dump it later this year. Decent chance I'm leaving the state, which would mean looking for a different state tax-exempt/federally tax exempt combination fund...

It’s a lot better than treasuries the more I look into it in taxable accounts. Just liquidated my entire VGIT position in fidelity and buying VMATX instead.

 

[Brainonska511]

It’s a lot better than treasuries the more I look into it in taxable accounts. Just liquidated my entire VGIT position in fidelity and buying VMATX instead.

Most of the stuff in my taxable account is in stock funds. Though, I have a good chunk in VBIAX (mainly due to historic reasons, and not going to cash that out now and incur a huge capital gain, unless I was going to say, buy a home).

I did move a chunk from my settlement fund to VUSXX recently, for the better state tax exemption, at least in the short term. It's kind of my, I want to invest this money, but I want to wait and see how Trump fucks things up first before putting more money onto the market.

 

[repoman0]

Most of the stuff in my taxable account is in stock funds. Though, I have a good chunk in VBIAX (mainly due to historic reasons, and not going to cash that out now and incur a huge capital gain, unless I was going to say, buy a home).

I did move a chunk from my settlement fund to VUSXX recently, for the better state tax exemption, at least in the short term. It's kind of my, I want to invest this money, but I want to wait and see how Trump fucks things up first before putting more money onto the market.

Same here re: stock funds, also don’t want to sell them and incur capital gains but haven’t been a buyer for months for similar reasons.

Do you use vanguard natively? I use fidelity and they want to charge me $100 to buy $140k of VMATX. I’m on the fence whether I’m enough of a cheap ass to move it all over and avoid the damn fee. The fidelity equivalent fund has 0.3% higher expense ratio which is a no go.

 

[Brainonska511]

Same here re: stock funds, also don’t want to sell them and incur capital gains but haven’t been a buyer for months for similar reasons.

Do you use vanguard natively? I use fidelity and they want to charge me $100 to buy $140k of VMATX. I’m on the fence whether I’m enough of a cheap ass to move it all over and avoid the damn fee. The fidelity equivalent fund has 0.3% higher expense ratio which is a no go.

I do use Vanguard directly for pretty much all my investing, outside of my current employer's 401k. I also have a Fidelity account because of an old employer - it has my HSA and the skeleton of an empty 401k (that I rolled over to a Vanguard IRA). There are things I like about each company's interface and things I dislike.

 

[Indus]

I changed my core position from SPAXX to FZFXX for tax reasons too.. apparently it's cheaper on taxes by a fraction because it's all treasuries.

Won't make a difference for most but if you're too close to the next bracket.. every little bit helps.

BTW @repoman27 I have thought of having both vanguard and fidelity.

Apparently you can link the accounts and just move cash between them like moving cash between banks without moving the account itself.

 

[repoman0]

I do use Vanguard directly for pretty much all my investing, outside of my current employer's 401k. I also have a Fidelity account because of an old employer - it has my HSA and the skeleton of an empty 401k (that I rolled over to a Vanguard IRA). There are things I like about each company's interface and things I dislike.

Yeah I do have an old brokerage account with them and my current 401k. Think I’ll just move the money over and deal with having it split. I’m going to continue to buy VMATX and definitely won’t pay $100 each time.

In other news, TSLA shits the bed, up 4% after hours anyway. That’s what corruption buys you

 

[Indus]

In other news, TSLA shits the bed, up 4% after hours anyway. That’s what corruption buys you

I am honestly looking for a non Tesla S&P 500 etf/ index fund.

The institutions should take note and offer the product because there's definitely going to be demand for it.

 

[XcPNehVYlE4A3C]

Holy shit NET

Yep!

 

[biostud]

The rate in Denmark is down to 2.35% and 2.75 in the Euro zone.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The rate in Denmark is down to 2.35% and 2.75 in the Euro zone.

Sounds like a carry trade. Borrow in Euro, invest in Treasuries

 

[IronWing]

What was that afternoon dip di dip dip about?

 

[biostud]

Sounds like a carry trade. Borrow in Euro, invest in Treasuries

Isn't there something with the $/€ exchange rate that will prevent that stunt?

But I'm looking forward to having my mortgage getting a new rate this autumn.

 

[dasherHampton]

Yep!

I checked the 6/20 145 calls and they're like FIFTEEN HUNDRED DOLLARS a piece.

I mean seriously wtf lol.