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Discussion ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

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AdamK47 said:
Everyone with a 401K is doing it. For me it's the 15th and last day of the month.
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It's just if you have $10K in a bank account you want to invest there's no reason to split it into 10 monthly investments of $1000, you should just invest all at once.
 
Brainonska511 said:
Highly recommend taking pictures of the receipts for archiving, especially if they're on receipt tape. I keep a running spreadsheet of healthcare-related expenses with dates, amounts, brief description, link to the receipt, and whether I've claimed it (ie, withdrawn money to cover that expense). Mildly annoying to set up at first, but once it was set up, it's easy to add expenses as they come in.
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Yes, a good idea, especially if it can be many years and those receipts get lost or faded.
 
biostud said:
It's just if you have $10K in a bank account you want to invest there's no reason to split it into 10 monthly investments of $1000, you should just invest all at once.
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I think he's referring to when salaried folks paychecks are distributed and the 401k money comes out. Although in mine there is a day or two lag before I see it hit, maybe that's a good thing.
 
nOOky said:
I think he's referring to when salaried folks paychecks are distributed and the 401k money comes out. Although in mine there is a day or two lag before I see it hit, maybe that's a good thing.
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I'm thinking more if you got a windfall to invest. Spreading out the investment time over some months just to smooth some of the bumps and avoid the psychological trauma of seeing a short term dip when you invest a lot.

In a way, a 401k is kind of doing that, since your contribution is invested every pay period and is not a lump sum at the start of the year.
 
I dodged even worse returns on my HSA account through no genius of my own. My HSA provider is changing investment houses so I had to close one account and open a new one. I managed to close on a high day and buy on a low day. The old investment was a lemon anyway (small cap fund), managing to do worse than the interest I would have gotten in a regular (non-HSA) savings account. The HSA provider offers a really crappy interest rate on savings so, even with the low returns, I came out ahead of what I would have gotten had I not invested. Since the HDHP provides a pass-through contribution, I don't get to pick the HSA provider. The insurance company has to be getting kickbacks from the HSA provider to go with such a shitty one. I guess I can poke around and see if I can find another HSA provider to roll the money to.

Anyway, scared me off new investments in small caps for a bit.
 
A recurring theme for the current cycle seems to be the underperformance of small and medium cap companies.

But that does make some sense given the fact that everyone has been expecting a recession. A Proctor and Gamble is probably going to do at least OK almost regardless. Less so for Joe's widgets.
 
IronWing said:
I dodged even worse returns on my HSA account through no genius of my own. My HSA provider is changing investment houses so I had to close one account and open a new one. I managed to close on a high day and buy on a low day. The old investment was a lemon anyway (small cap fund), managing to do worse than the interest I would have gotten in a regular (non-HSA) savings account. The HSA provider offers a really crappy interest rate on savings so, even with the low returns, I came out ahead of what I would have gotten had I not invested. Since the HDHP provides a pass-through contribution, I don't get to pick the HSA provider. The insurance company has to be getting kickbacks from the HSA provider to go with such a shitty one. I guess I can poke around and see if I can find another HSA provider to roll the money to.

Anyway, scared me off new investments in small caps for a bit.
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You could always use the HSA for the initial contributions and roll funds over to a better provider, if that is an option that they don't charge for.
 
Brainonska511 said:
I'm thinking more if you got a windfall to invest. Spreading out the investment time over some months just to smooth some of the bumps and avoid the psychological trauma of seeing a short term dip when you invest a lot.

In a way, a 401k is kind of doing that, since your contribution is invested every pay period and is not a lump sum at the start of the year.
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I see. I was fortunate to inherit an IRA and I'm leaving it invested where it's at because my brother was making around 9% for the past 5 years. I intended to take money out of it, but I don't need any right now. The past few years after covid they have not been penalizing for not withdrawing so I hope they keep that up.
 
nOOky said:
I see. I was fortunate to inherit an IRA and I'm leaving it invested where it's at because my brother was making around 9% for the past 5 years. I intended to take money out of it, but I don't need any right now. The past few years after covid they have not been penalizing for not withdrawing so I hope they keep that up.
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Just so you know, if the original owner died after January 2020 (?), I believe you have 10 years to empty the account. If they died before, then you can keep using the old rules with RMDs based on your own life expectancy. This all happened under the SECURE act.

I also have an inherited IRA from an uncle who died a bit over 10 years ago, and it just gives me a small portion of the RMD every month for some fun money, as it all continues to grow tax free. Because it's under the old rules, I have to take yearly RMDs.
 
The IRS has been waiving the penalties for failing to take RMDs on inherited IRAs because the wording of the rule is horrendously ambiguous. The clarifying memo was even worse. One still has to meet the ten year rule. Eventually, the IRS will stop issuing waivers on the RMDs.
 
Charmonium said:
A recurring theme for the current cycle seems to be the underperformance of small and medium cap companies.

But that does make some sense given the fact that everyone has been expecting a recession. A Proctor and Gamble is probably going to do at least OK almost regardless. Less so for Joe's widgets.
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The problem with Joe's Widgets is that while the company has just signed a new deal and Joe has bought more shares in the company:

1) it is cash flow negative
2) sales are flat to lower or maybe even growing (but they could be exaggerated or even straight up lying)

and

3) they are leveraged to the eyeballs necessitating yet another secondary offering (dilution) just to pay the damn bills.


Trust me, this is the crap I have to deal with on a near daily basis since I like trading shitty sub $50M companies on breakouts. These are not just small cap (sub $1B), these are subatomic cap.

LUNR was a good trade today:

finance.yahoo.com

Intuitive Machines Earnings Reveal Surprise Profit. Why the Stock Is Down Anyway.

Tuesday, space startup Intuitive Machines reported earnings per share of about 15 cents from sales of $41.4 million. Wall Street was looking for an 18-cent loss from sales of $46.6 million.
finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com
 
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Just a quick note to those who may be curious. Have you wondered exactly why there was virtually universal agreement on the coming (but never arrived) recession?

Well, historically, an inverted yield curve has been a pretty faithful predictor of such things.

The yield on a debt instrument like a corporate bond tends to increase with the maturity. That makes sense, right? The weather prediction for tomorrow might be spot on but a year down the road, roll the dice (better odds).

The yield curve maps maturity (x-axis) against the prevailing interest rate (y-axis) for such maturities. I think govt bonds tend to be used as the indicia but I'd have to check.

So an inverted yield curve is saying the exact reverse of that. The further into the future you go, the lower the interest rate.

Translate that into human psychology and that means most folks aren't too optimistic about the future - specifically, future returns.
 
Charmonium said:
Just a quick note to those who may be curious. Have you wondered exactly why there was virtually universal agreement on the coming (but never arrived) recession?

Well, historically, an inverted yield curve has been a pretty faithful predictor of such things.

The yield on a debt instrument like a corporate bond tends to increase with the maturity. That makes sense, right? The weather prediction for tomorrow might be spot on but a year down the road, roll the dice (better odds).

The yield curve maps maturity (x-axis) against the prevailing interest rate (y-axis) for such maturities. I think govt bonds tend to be used as the indicia but I'd have to check.

So an inverted yield curve is saying the exact reverse of that. The further into the future you go, the lower the interest rate.

Translate that into human psychology and that means most folks aren't too optimistic about the future - specifically, future returns.
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I like turtles. 🐢

 
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Been following Victoria Gold news about the disaster, also talked to my uncle about it since he's more in on these things. Basically the Yukon government took it over so they can do the environmental repairs. After this I imagine it's going to be over for the mine. It may get sold off but it would probably be to a completely different company at that point so different stock. There's a class action that I put my name into, so will see what happens. I'm pretty sure I just lost a couple grand either way though.
 
You definitely have a better chance getting some cash from the lawsuit but better just means greater than zero.

The regional govt of course is going to take their share. I doubt that they have any intention of passing anything on to the taxpayers.

But how do you value a gold mine? The whole nature of mining is that you can never be certain of what you'll find. You're always playing the odds.

The one thing you can be reasonably certain of is that the govt won't jump on any lowball bids. And with gold at record highs, that should (should) auger well for you.
 
Yeah I'm definitely not counting on getting much. And even if it happens it will probably be years. Just comes to show the risk of investing though, it doesn't always work out, especially with individual stocks.

Just glad I did not put an absurd amount of money into it. My parents got burned like 15-20ish years ago and lost 100k. A financial advisor set them up with an investment that involved taking out a 100k loan and sold it as being risk free. The idea was that as the investment grows you slowly pay off the loan, and eventually, you have 100k or more depending on the market. Well the market crashed and they lost mostly everything. They are still paying that debt off to this day.

With inflation (and previous inflation we are still now paying for) as high as it is now, my overall strategy now has changed, and I'm more focused on paying off debt and buying things that I know I will want later. If I buy them now they are cheaper than if I wait. Ex: my off land. Glad I bought it a couple years ago, instead of waiting. I'm still investing but putting it into index funds now instead.
 
The key to success is diversification. The red flag with Victoria is that they only have one mine - or at least that's what I've gathered from your posts.

In finance, there's something called the "efficient frontier."

The efficient frontier comprises investment portfolios that offer the highest expected return for a specific level of risk. It represents graphically portfolios that maximize returns for the risk assumed, showing the benefit of diversification.Jun 22, 2024
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You can never be AT the EF but the more diversified you are, the closer you get.

Individual companies can be TOO diversified and need to pare non-performing segments. But as an individual, it's not really an issue. That's why mutual funds are such a huge segment of the market. Some cover all of the indices but most seem to focus on specific market segments. Even so, within that segment, they tend to be well diversified.
 
For those of you who lean either towards or away from risk, you might be interested in a stat just called 'beta.' Unless company's stock is relatively newly traded (not sure but I would stick with at least 5 years), the beta should be available on most company stock research sites - even the free ones.

Beta is a quick, unitless measure of how much a stock moves with the market - historically. That last part is important since, while most companies are fairly well analyzed, that doesn't preclude changes (internal or external) that tank (or goose) their value.

So, you're risk averse? You want a beta less than 1. And vice versa.
 
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