Discussion ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

[IEC]

Majority of bets are on a rate cut. Maybe 25 basis points.

But inflation still being 2.9% annualized in July suggests inflation is still sticky. Headlines make it sound like prices decreased, but it's the rate of increase that decreased.

 

[repoman0]

Majority of bets are on a rate cut. Maybe 25 basis points.

But inflation still being 2.9% annualized in July suggests inflation is still sticky. Headlines make it sound like prices decreased, but it's the rate of increase that decreased.

Housing is the major contributor to that high headline number, and the high fed rate is making that component worse. Look at the granular data and you’ll see the rest is <2%, even <0% for some stuff like cars, except for housing and electricity.

 

[IEC]

Housing is the major contributor to that high headline number, and the high fed rate is making that component worse. Look at the granular data and you’ll see the rest is <2%, even <0% for some stuff like cars, except for housing and electricity.

Housing is the #1 expenditure for most people and a lot of people are spending 40-50%+ just on housing. The "D"s still apply.

I expect prices to adjust accordingly in the long run.

 

[repoman0]

Housing is the #1 expenditure for most people and a lot of people are spending 40-50%+ just on housing. The "D"s still apply.

I expect prices to adjust accordingly in the long run.

I agree. Housing pricing is the major reason people think the current excellent economy sucks. I was just pointing out that high fed rates are the wrong tool to fix housing prices and are probably actively making it worse.

Prices won’t adjust really until we build more but in the meantime lowering the fed rate and therefore mortgage rates should bring down effective payments for both mortgage and rent.

 

[dullard]

Majority of bets are on a rate cut. Maybe 25 basis points.

But inflation still being 2.9% annualized in July suggests inflation is still sticky. Headlines make it sound like prices decreased, but it's the rate of increase that decreased.

That is correct. The fed does not and should not attempt to remove previously increased prices. Their job is solely to stabilize the current prices at their current level. The only way to remove previous inflation without destroying the economy is to remove / reduce tariffs or other sales taxes. And the fed has no control over tariffs or sales taxes.

Think of it like children. Once they are born, there is no going back to lower numbers. Well, at least no reasonable way back from 6 children to 4 children.

 

[biostud]

Majority of bets are on a rate cut. Maybe 25 basis points.

But inflation still being 2.9% annualized in July suggests inflation is still sticky. Headlines make it sound like prices decreased, but it's the rate of increase that decreased.

Mostly it is due to the lagging indicator of housing.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I suppose with the new Starbucks CEO we'll be seeing price increases and smaller portions. Because, resilient consumer.
I'm sure the white rice will have heaps of cilantro in it as well. No thanks.

He will find a way to start selling burritos. If so we are talking a $500 stock (currently $100)

 

[Charmonium]

I want to see them install some hot dog rollers. Let's see them sell THOSE for 5 bucks. I've always underestimated the stupidity of the US consumer though.

I will however give them credit for having the stiffest, hi-octane caffeine of anyone but maybe a truckstop. If you really need that, just spend the money on coke or crank. Ya gotz to be honest with yourself.

 

[Charmonium]

I think the cut is going to be minimum, 0.5 basis points. They might go 0.75 but if they don't, I think the only reason is so that they don't look desperate. I guess is was fine to look desperate when annualized in-f-f-flation was11%. But nobody was going to bust their chops over that. And there's no better way to goose the economy than by going 50+50 going into the holiday season.

 

[Red Squirrel]

I never understood the appeal of Starbucks, it's basically Tim Horton's but 5x as expensive. In fact if I'm going to buy a coffee I prefer Tim Horton's over Starbucks. Starbucks tastes burnt.

 

[Charmonium]

SB is in fact 'burnt roasted.' It's also bitter.

Want really, really good tasting coffee? Get a tin of Melita (it's very finely ground - about the consistency espresso grounds). You'll also need a filter holder and fine-grind filters. I prefer the brown ones since they aren't bleached, but both work. I'm pretty sure the #4s are what you use with the 1 or 2 cup filter stand.

It's smoothest coffee you can buy.

 

[Charmonium]

The reason for my opinion above is that almost everyone agrees that they've been 'behind the curve.'

 

[FelixDeCat]

I want to see them install some hot dog rollers. Let's see them sell THOSE for 5 bucks. I've always underestimated the stupidity of the US consumer though.

I will however give them credit for having the stiffest, hi-octane caffeine of anyone but maybe a truckstop. If you really need that, just spend the money on coke or crank. Ya gotz to be honest with yourself.

Hot dogs 🌭 and coffee ☕️?

Try that in a small town!

 

[biostud]

Hot dogs 🌭 and coffee ☕️?

Try that in a small town!

It is hot dogs and coco milk. This is the Danish way

 

[biostud]

Best prediction post of the year? Nikkei up strong today so far. Futures all strongly positive.

So, I've been up +15% YTD then the crash down to 5% YTD and now close to 12% YTD all within 9 days.

 

[dullard]

Starbucks tastes burnt.

That is the whole reason Starbucks became popular. Just about every other coffee shop in the world was selling light roast coffee. Then Starbucks went all in with medium roast. Made them unique and appealed to those who like more complex, deep, bitter flavors. That said, I prefer light roasts myself.

But people aren't really going to Starbucks for the coffee. The most sold items at Starbucks are the pumpkin spice latte, pink drink, brown sugar oat milk espresso, frappuccinos, and vanilla sweat cream cold brew. None of those is the standard thing people think of when they think coffee. And for the most part, Tim Hortons really has nothing that compares. You might as well be comparing Starbucks to Canadian Tire.

 

[nOOky]

So, I've been up +15% YTD then the crash down to 5% YTD and now close to 12% YTD all with 9 days.

Hmmm is that what they mean when they say the average stoopid person should not try and time the market? lol my investments have been all over, but still slightly down from 2 weeks ago.

As for coffee, it's hard to beat Tanzanian Peaberry medium roast made with the Aeropress. Anything less is brown water. And for gods sake coffee is simply black coffee, as soon as you have to add sugar, cream, or any other crap you may as well drink flavored Mountain Dew and admit that you hate coffee.

 

[jpiniero]

The reason for my opinion above is that almost everyone agrees that they've been 'behind the curve.'

Given all the inflation that's happened... they can afford to be so. And then some. The numbers drawing unemployment still continues to be within range. Plus housing is still on fire. With Kamala having it in the bag I can't see too much political pressure either. And as long as the stock market goes up, Wall Street may not mind either.

 

[dullard]

The reason for my opinion above is that almost everyone agrees that they've been 'behind the curve.'

I don't think being ahead or behind the curve is really that important to the fed. Inflation takes years to develop and years to go away. This isn't like a heart attack where seconds matter. What is more important is that people take them seriously and to give the impression that the fed really means what the fed says they will do. 0.5% indicates that the fed is doing something seriously.

I'm 50/50 if the fed will cut rates in September. The fed hates to make moves in election cycles and one of the candidates is already threatening them not to make a cut. But, I'm increasingly confident that the fed will do 0.5% by or at the November meeting.

 

[biostud]

Hmmm is that what they mean when they say the average stoopid person should not try and time the market? lol my investments have been all over, but still slightly down from 2 weeks ago.

Probably. I only buy index funds, but my wife does some investments in individual stocksand I think she edges me out.

 

[FelixDeCat]

NASDAQ on fire. Might reclaim 500 on the QQQ. Currently 473.

 

[linkgoron]

NASDAQ on fire. Might reclaim 500 on the QQQ. Currently 473.

Pretty good day all around so far. SMH and ASTS doing pretty well for me today.

 

[linkgoron]

I think the cut is going to be minimum, 0.5 basis points. They might go 0.75 but if they don't, I think the only reason is so that they don't look desperate. I guess is was fine to look desperate when annualized in-f-f-flation was11%. But nobody was going to bust their chops over that. And there's no better way to goose the economy than by going 50+50 going into the holiday season.

0.75? Unless numbers change a lot, I don't see it. Stock market looks like it's on fire again, other numbers looking fine. Inflation is still high at 2.9%. IMO they should keep rates as they are, but given market expectations 0.25 is my bet. 0.75 could signal that the FED think that something is very wrong and could ignite inflation again.

 

[AdamK47]

Starbucks now allowing WFH for everyone with the job title of CEO.

 

[dullard]

Inflation is still high at 2.9%.

Gotta put that in perspective. 2.9% is still lower than the average inflation rate over the last few decades/century. It just happens to be higher than the fed's ridiculously precise and low 2.0% goal. A 2% +- 1% range (1% to 3%) would have been a heck of a lot smarter for them. But then engineers that are tasked with making goals actually achievable are rarely involved in politics or political decisions.