Discussion ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

[repoman0]

NASDAQ was below 7,500 in 2019 and the Dow was below below 25k. You want that back?

He probably does since he never seems to be actually invested and always seems to be on the losing side of a short or some gambling day trade.

 

[FelixDeCat]

NASDAQ was below 7,500 in 2019 and the Dow was below below 25k. You want that back?

A + B /= C - D

Deflation is good for markets. At least mild deflation.

 

[dullard]

Its transitory bro, its transitory! Prices will go back to 2019 levels.

Not.

Um, you totally botched your idea of their use of the word transitory. The high inflation levels were transitory (that is the rate of change of prices was high and then the rate of change of prices were to go lower). The rates of price changes have gone back down to the ~3% range.

The price increases were never ever claimed to be transitory. Prices were never ever claimed to return to 2019 levels. The goal was only to get the rate of change was to return to near 2019 levels.

 

[biostud]

Um, you totally botched your idea of their use of the word transitory. The high inflation levels were transitory (that is the rate of change of prices was high and then the rate of change of prices were to go lower). The rates of price changes have gone back down to the ~3% range.

The price increases were never ever claimed to be transitory. Prices were never ever claimed to return to 2019 levels. The goal was only to get the rate of change was to return to near 2019 levels.

Exactly, and at some point buying power will be back to 2019 levels and then improve.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Um, you totally botched your idea of their use of the word transitory. The high inflation levels were transitory (that is the rate of change of prices was high and then the rate of change of prices were to go lower). The rates of price changes have gone back down to the ~3% range.

The price increases were never ever claimed to be transitory. Prices were never ever claimed to return to 2019 levels. The goal was only to get the rate of change was to return to near 2019 levels.

And this is the reason why we need a 21% prime rate and higher income taxes. Not to mention a change disfavoring real estate hoarding.

Lowering prices equals higher buying power for all.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Exactly, and at some point buying power will be back to 2019 levels and then improve.

I don't imagine we'll ever see that kind of buying power again unfortunately, unless we got some deflation.

 

[IronWing]

And this is the reason why we need a 21% prime rate and higher income taxes. Not to mention a change disfavoring real estate hoarding.

Lowering prices equals higher buying power for all.

How will people afford these great low prices when the mass layoffs and wage cuts kick in? Mortgage principal won’t magically drop to reflect lower wages.

 

[Charmonium]

How will people afford these great low prices when the mass layoffs and wage cuts kick in? Mortgage principal won’t magically drop to reflect lower wages.

You need to check out some less hysterical news sources - no one, even Jamie Dimon (CEO of JP Morgan Chase) isn't saying anything remotely like that.

That's not to say it could never happen of course, but if you're going to make the best call you can with the best data you can gather, that's not a realistic possibility.

 

[biostud]

I don't imagine we'll ever see that kind of buying power again unfortunately, unless we got some deflation.

I'll be back by August if nothing too crazy happens in that period of time.

 

[dullard]

You need to check out some less hysterical news sources - no one, even Jamie Dimon (CEO of JP Morgan Chase) isn't saying anything remotely like that.

That's not to say it could never happen of course, but if you're going to make the best call you can with the best data you can gather, that's not a realistic possibility.

Did you see the scenario he was replying to? A 21% prime interest rate! That is a massive 12.5% higher than it is today. What countries currently have interest rates near 21%? That would be Nigeria, Egypt, Liberia, Pakistan, Sierra Leone, and Iran. Their economies aren't what I'd call stellar right now. Or what about countries with even higher rates? Zimbabwe, Argentina, Venezula, Ghana, Sudan. Hmm, not a group that I'd want my economy associated with.

I haven't seen Dimon mention any of his theoretical sky-is-falling outcomes discussing an interest rate that high. Then combine with the proposed tax increases and government manipulation of the real estate market all with the intent to cause significant deflation. That is a pretty serious set of proposed blows to the economy.

 

[Charmonium]

@dullard - I have no idea what you're talking about except to say that it all sounds pretty absurd.

And really? The govt manipulating real estate prices? How would they even do that?

I don't watch any of the far right news sources, but it seems like Trump supporters realize that he has no chance in November and they're lying their asses off to try to scare people.

I don't want to get political in this thread but that's where all of this bullshit is coming from.

edit - BTW, if you want to invest or disinvest based on this disinformation, please do. Some people only learn the hard way. And I say that from personal experience.

 

[dullard]

@dullard - I have no idea what you're talking about except to say that it all sounds pretty absurd.

And really? The govt manipulating real estate prices? How would they even do that?

I don't watch any of the far right news sources, but it seems like Trump supporters realize that he has no chance in November and they're lying their asses off to try to scare people.

I don't want to get political in this thread but that's where all of this bullshit is coming from.

edit - BTW, if you want to invest or disinvest based on this disinformation, please do. Some people only learn the hard way. And I say that from personal experience.

IronWing and I were referring to this post: https://forums.anandtech.com/threads/official-2024-stock-market-thread-💰.2616677/post-41187950 I do agree that FelixDeCat's post came from a political belief. A belief with a well-intentioned but extremely misguided desire to lower prices.

Want to lower prices immediately without Felix's economy shattering proposals? Lets try going back to freer trade. You know, before we had 25% additional tariffs on so many goods coming into the country. Those tariffs could be ended today and prices would fall. It doesn't take much thought to connect 25% added sales tax to a large part of the ~25% higher prices that we've been seeing. But that is as far into politics that I'll go here.

 

[jpiniero]

Prices were never ever claimed to return to 2019 levels.

That would be nice. Or at least something to counteract the massive amount of real inflation that's happened.

 

[FelixDeCat]

We have had a nice chat about rates, monetary and tax policy and such .. which is healthy to have, each arguing passionately for their point of view. This is fun to have.👍

But to focus back on stocks in particular- Nvidia has been pulling back lately and would make a terrific short if you look at the run from 500 to 990 happening so quickly. The pull back is due to speculation of others developing in house solutions for AI computing, and even Intel wanting a piece of the action.

I am highly tempted to short it now but earnings start next week and we will likely rally through the period and nobody wants to be short that. 😬

But going back to Nvidia $500 would be so delicious. Just pull up a 90 day chart. It was $480 early Jan and peaked in March, up 100% in 75 days!😲

 

[IEC]

CPI above expectations at 3.5%.

Rate cuts? We need a rate hike.

 

[FelixDeCat]

CPI above expectations at 3.5%.

Rate cuts? We need a rate hike.

Two rate hikes!

 

[AdamK47]

Futures in the toilet. Market opens in a few minutes. This is going to be fun.

 

[IronWing]

Relax, Investor's Business Daily has it covered.

 

[repoman0]

For anyone who cares about the actual data. As usual shelter is the main contributor, which of course the fed has actually made worse along with a decade or two of not building enough. Food and energy are looking good.

I’m not selling any stock but moving my after tax weekly buys to 100% treasuries for a while.

 

[jpiniero]

For anyone who cares about the actual data. As usual shelter is the main contributor, which of course the fed has actually made worse

If people still can't help themselves to not overbid for housing.... low mortgage rates aren't going to help that.

 

[repoman0]

If people still can't help themselves to not overbid for housing.... low mortgage rates aren't going to help that.

The data uses rents, not mortgages, but nice try. I guess people should just live in cardboard boxes rather than rent an apartment.

And I wonder if the high mortgage rates combined with historically low inventory due to most people staying put due to rate lock in are making competition for apartments more fierce. This isn’t complicated.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The data uses rents, not mortgages, but nice try. I guess people should just live in cardboard boxes rather than rent an apartment.

Or you can live in your car. 😉

Speaking of which my car insurance is up for renewal again. They are asking for a 3rd consecutive 20% increase. It's up 67% in the last 3 years.

Even a news commentator mentioned his is rising 2% ... per month!

 

[repoman0]

Or you can live in your car. 😉

Speaking of which my car insurance is up for renewal again. They are asking for a 3rd consecutive 20% increase. It's up 67% in the last 3 years.

Even a news commentator mentioned his is rising 2% ... per month!

That sounds more like the insurance company is starting to price in previously unacknowledged risks in your region. That or you need to shop around. My policy in the greater Boston area is only up around 15% total in the past five years.

Edit: sorry, misread car as home. My car insurance is up roughly 0% in five years. Part of that might be age related (early 30s vs late 20s) and I got married which reduces risk profile.

 

[jpiniero]

The data uses rents, not mortgages, but nice try. I guess people should just live in cardboard boxes rather than rent an apartment.

Says rent and for people who own, it says they are asking this question:
“If someone were to rent your home today, how much do you think it would rent for monthly, unfurnished and without utilities?”

Measuring Price Change in the CPI: Rent and Rental Equivalence

Measuring Price Change in the CPI: Rent and Rental Equivalence

www.bls.gov

 

[repoman0]

Says rent and for people who own, it says they are asking this question:
“If someone were to rent your home today, how much do you think it would rent for monthly, unfurnished and without utilities?”

Measuring Price Change in the CPI: Rent and Rental Equivalence

Measuring Price Change in the CPI: Rent and Rental Equivalence

www.bls.gov

Interesting, so part of the CPI report is based on random survey questions? I keep up with the real estate market in my area but my estimate for the rent I could get for my house I’d pin at +/-$500 accuracy.