Discussion ***Official*** 2023 Stock Market Thread 💰

[KB]

My recession indicator of the week:
You know its a recession when the media starts talking extreme couponing again:

Extreme couponing is back. But it’s on TikTok this time.

Clipping coupons may be largely digital now, but the deals are still out there. Kayla Burk is teaching a younger generation how to use them.

www.marketplace.org

 

[jpiniero]

My recession indicator of the week:
You know its a recession when the media starts talking extreme couponing again:

Extreme couponing is back. But it’s on TikTok this time.

Clipping coupons may be largely digital now, but the deals are still out there. Kayla Burk is teaching a younger generation how to use them.

www.marketplace.org

That's a bullish indicator.

Rate odds greatly favor another single hike but that would be it. After that it's several months of no change.

 

[dullard]

Congress has the predictable track record of 11th hour votes to raise the debt ceiling. Members want to drag it out to the last minute in order to score points with constituents on whatever ideology they support. I don't let the political sensationalism news of the week/month bleed into my financial future. Those that do miss out.

The problem with following news that closely is that even if you are correct, you still are not likely to win.

Suppose you were 100% correct that news would cause the stock market to fall 15%. But suppose you didn't time things perfectly. Hypothetically, you could sell at an S&P 500 value of 3990 instead of 4300 where it looked like it might peak. Then even if you were exactly correct of a 15% fall to 3655, you have to again perfectly time the bottom. Most people can't do that. So let's suppose you miss the extreme again by 310 points. Now you end up selling at 3990, buying at 3965, which is a measly 0.6% gain even when you correctly guess a 15% fall. Not only that but you lost all dividends in that time frame, so you probably came out a net money loser on the whole thing.

Timing the market just often fails even when you are correct.

All numbers here are purely hypothetical and have nothing to do with people's moves earlier in this thread.

 

[biostud]

That was fun. 3% up in a single day.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

It ain't over yet.

 

[AdamK47]

The problem with following news that closely is that even if you are correct, you still are not likely to win.

Suppose you were 100% correct that news would cause the stock market to fall 15%. But suppose you didn't time things perfectly. Hypothetically, you could sell at an S&P 500 value of 3990 instead of 4300 where it looked like it might peak. Then even if you were exactly correct of a 15% fall to 3655, you have to again perfectly time the bottom. Most people can't do that. So let's suppose you miss the extreme again by 310 points. Now you end up selling at 3990, buying at 3965, which is a measly 0.6% gain even when you correctly guess a 15% fall. Not only that but you lost all dividends in that time frame, so you probably came out a net money loser on the whole thing.

Timing the market just often fails even when you are correct.

All numbers here are purely hypothetical and have nothing to do with people's moves earlier in this thread.

Preaching to the choir.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

S&P at 4179 still has a long ways to go to get back to 4700

 

[jpiniero]

New unemployment claims are still declining... looks like the Fed is going to have to continue raising long past next time if they are going to curb "inflation".

Apple had a bad quarter, which shouldn't have been surprising but maybe worse than WS expected. Gave up all the gains and then some AH. Probably means tomorrow will be a reversal of today.

 

[FelixDeCat]

It ain't over yet.

Its never over. Rates will continue to increase. And after that we will have something else to worry about.

Just a game.

 

[jpiniero]

Ooh, job report was good too. You would think between Apple/Amazon and that, today should be a bloodbath but admittingly being Friday who knows.

 

[biostud]

Section 2A. Monetary policy objectives
The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Open Market Committee shall maintain long run growth of the monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with the economy's long run potential to increase production, so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.


They have to do all three things...

 

[AdamK47]

Trying to score some Ford, but it looks like I won't be able to hit my buy limit. Market is turning around despite the strong jobs numbers.

Biostud is right about employment. Price stability can still be achieved with employment intact.

 

[jpiniero]

Another hike in May is now the slight favorite.

Trying to score some Ford, but it looks like I won't be able to hit my buy limit. Market is turning around despite the strong jobs numbers.

Funny things happen on Fridays because of options.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Waffle Waffle.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Waffle Waffle.

And a little syrup 😋

 

[FelixDeCat]

Another hike in May is now the slight favorite.

My call was for 3 quarter point hikes. One down two to go.

 

[jpiniero]

My call was for 3 quarter point hikes. One down two to go.

I'm beginning to think that they will continue on doing single hikes past that, long as "inflation" remains red hot.

 

[jpiniero]

Google Working on Browser for iOS That Would Break Apple's App Store Rules

Google's Chromium developers are working on an experimental web browser for iOS that would break Apple's browser engine restrictions, The...

www.macrumors.com

Oooh, this could be huge (financially). Google pays Apple billions a quarter for the search revenue... but if Google is allowed to release a real version of Chrome on iOS, they wouldn't have to share as much if they can get users to use Chrome instead of Safari.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Lol @ Bed, Bath...and beyond!

Granted the company missed an interest payment on its bonds and has warned it will likely not continue as a going concern (bankruptcy).

What does the stock do in a few days? Up
300%, of which it was up 100% today on a massive short squeeze.

And beyond!

 

[AdamK47]

Lol @ Bed, Bath...and beyond!

Granted the company missed an interest payment on its bonds and has warned it will likely not continue as a going concern (bankruptcy).

What does the stock do in a few days? Up
300%, of which it was up 100% today on a massive short squeeze.

And beyond!

It's fun to watch from the sidelines.

 

[FelixDeCat]

It's fun to watch from the sidelines.

Amen. Way too risky to mess with.

I remember back in 2020 when Hertz was near bankruptcy because of Covid and nobody was renting cars. Even its largest famous shareholder Carl Icahn dumped all his shares under $1. Experience has taught me not to screw around with bankruptcy stocks.

Nevertheless I sold (shorted) 200 $1 put contracts for $20,000 hoping to make a quick $3,000 in 8 hours with the understanding I would get assigned 20,000 shares.

I got cold feet near the close remembering all my bad bankruptcy stock experiences and covered for a small profit.

Sadly, Hertz had a meme rally next week and went to $6. Had I had the balls to get assigned I might have made $100,000 in a week.

Oh well.

 

[FelixDeCat]

And in other news, money losing Bed Bath proposes after the market closesd that offering another billion dollars worth of shares would help stave off a bankruptcy filing. BBY shares collapse as a result in after hours trading.

All those poor memesters holding call options are now sweating bullets to to see where it opens tomorrow.

Another billion will make no difference. They are unprofitable and have been for a very long time. Their previous stock offerings last year didn't save them either. Just file BR and get it over with.

And Beyond!

 

[AdamK47]

And in other news, money losing Bed Bath proposes after the market closesd that offering another billion dollars worth of shares would help stave off a bankruptcy filing. BBY shares collapse as a result in after hours trading.

All those poor memesters holding call options are now sweating bullets to to see where it opens tomorrow.

Another billion will make no difference. They are unprofitable and have been for a very long time. Their previous stock offerings last year didn't save them either. Just file BR and get it over with.

And Beyond!

How many life lessons do these WSB guys need? I'm sure the discussion is blowing up on Reddit.

 

[Dr. Detroit]

I'm beginning to think that they will continue on doing single hikes past that, long as "inflation" remains red hot.

The 2yr and 10yr popped up bigly. Up almost 40 basis points each in the past 3-days.

Odds are over 30% that we are above 5.5% in December now, compared to 4% thinking that last week!

Fed Rate Monitor Tool - Investing.com

Our fed watch tool displays a forecast estimation for fed hikes or cut by the next upcoming FOMC meeting.

www.investing.com

 

[KB]

How many life lessons do these WSB guys need? I'm sure the discussion is blowing up on Reddit.

When will those shorting a stock learn. Shorting a stock thats only $1 isn't worth the risk. At most you are only going to net a dollar. But when WSB starts buying options on a heavily shorted stock, and options sellers are forced to buy the stock, you can get whacked in a massive short-squeeze and your loses can be infinite in the short-term.
Yes a lot of WSB folks will lose money but the early options investors win big.