Discussion ***Official*** 2023 Stock Market Thread 💰

[AdamK47]

This is probably the usual spring rally. The Fed will fix that with .50% hike.

View attachment 77719

It will be a small bump on the way to a longer term rally.

 

[FelixDeCat]

It will be a small bump on the way to a longer term rally.

I want crashy crashy.

 

[jpiniero]

I still don't see the real rally happening until the pivot; and I don't see the pivot happening until 4-5% unemployment.

All these mini fake rallies show is that there is still a lot of money floating around.

 

[AdamK47]

I want crashy crashy.

Sir, no

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

I just want the S&P to get back to the 4700 area. Then it can waffle waffle all it wants.

 

[AdamK47]

I just want the S&P to get back to the 4700 area. Then it can waffle waffle all it wants.

It can stay where it's at for 6 years. Then suddenly jump up 300% a few months before I retire.

 

[JEDI]

a couple of months ago, saw my online only bank offered a 4.6% 1 yr cd, which was better than the 3.4% in savings.
easy peasy to move some $ into it.

then last month, saw that my b&m bank (capital one) had a 5% 11month cd.
Moved some $ into it.

so a .50% rate hike next meeting will mean these cd's will fall behind

 

[FelixDeCat]

Sir, no

This is a casino not a brothel. (Ironically the slot machines will screw you!)



^ I randomly came across this and fell in love. Its my lock screen now on my S22+

 

[AdamK47]

Powell speaks. Market falls.

Says rates are heading higher than expected. That's fine.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Uncy 100 sh 1.74


I think an 8% Fed rate is what we need. Wouldn't surprise me to see the market finish green anyway. The love stunning reversals. Tomorrow however will tell the truth.

 

[biostud]

Why not raise income tax for a year and pay of some debt?

 

[JEDI]

Why not raise income tax for a year and pay of some debt?

idiot repubs control the House

 

[Brainonska511]

Why not raise income tax for a year and pay of some debt?

Why not raise the debt ceiling because the ceiling is stupid? The spending was already authorized, just pay the obligations incurred.

 

[jpiniero]

Why not raise the debt ceiling because the ceiling is stupid? The spending was already authorized, just pay the obligations incurred.

Because eventually (if it isn't already) paying the debt service will overwhelm everything else. Obviously raising rates is only going to make servicing the debt even more expensive.

And the issue (to Big Biz at least) is the low unemployment (yet the labor participation rate is also low...).

 

[Brainonska511]

Because eventually (if it isn't already) paying the debt service will overwhelm everything else. Obviously raising rates is only going to make servicing the debt even more expensive.

And the issue (to Big Biz at least) is the low unemployment (yet the labor participation rate is also low...).

The debt ceiling is stupid no matter how you slice it, because it enables a group to try and force backdoor spending cuts by holding the economy of the world hostage.

If you're concerned about debt servicing (most of which is payments to ourselves anyway), that solution should be clearer: reduce the deficit through better tax collection and tax increases.

 

[jpiniero]

The debt ceiling is stupid no matter how you slice it, because it enables a group to try and force backdoor spending cuts by holding the economy of the world hostage.

If you're concerned about debt servicing (most of which is payments to ourselves anyway), that solution should be clearer: reduce the deficit through better tax collection and tax increases.

The problem is most of the time, the reason the Democrats want to raise the celining is because of more social spending/welfare. That might be part of the problem right now if there's a decent % of people not working because they are skating by from covid relief programs.

 

[biostud]

Why not raise the debt ceiling because the ceiling is stupid? The spending was already authorized, just pay the obligations incurred.

I just thought that higher income taxes would help fight inflation.

 

[jpiniero]

I just thought that higher income taxes would help fight inflation.

In this case, I don't think it would help.What would help would be something that would raise unemployment (yet also raise the participation rate)

 

[Brainonska511]

The problem is most of the time, the reason the Democrats want to raise the celining is because of more social spending/welfare. That might be part of the problem right now if there's a decent % of people not working because they are skating by from covid relief programs.

Republicans had no problems raising the ceiling for unneeded tax cuts and wars. Don't fall for their bs.

If you want to cut spending and whatnot, do so with the appropriations process, not some backdoor "nuke the world economy" lever.

As for COVID relief programs, those are largely done and unemployment is at record lows, so low that those traditionally excluded can find work and people can job hop more easily for better wages.

 

[jpiniero]

As for COVID relief programs, those are largely done and unemployment is at record lows

I thought so too but I still haven't seen a good explanation as to why the participation rate is still very low. If they aren't working but aren't drawing unemployment, where are they getting money, paying rent, etc...

I think in any case the Fed shouldn't really expect Congress to do much.

 

[jpiniero]

BTW double hike is suddenly the favorite now.

 

[Brainonska511]

I thought so too but I still haven't seen a good explanation as to why the participation rate is still very low. If they aren't working but aren't drawing unemployment, where are they getting money, paying rent, etc...

I think in any case the Fed shouldn't really expect Congress to do much.

Some of the reduced participation rate could probably be attributed to demographic shifts. Boomers are retiring, and I bet the pandemic accelerated some people's plans to retire.

 

[biostud]

In this case, I don't think it would help.What would help would be something that would raise unemployment (yet also raise the participation rate)

It is just every time you want to stimulate economy you want to lower the taxes, then the opposite would happen when you raise taxes. And if you use them to pay of debt, you remove money from the economy instead of stimulating it.

 

[AdamK47]

I've transferred money into my brokerage account five times today to do some buying.

 

[jpiniero]

Like Housing continues to be red hot. The high (at least compared to recent times) mortgage rates doesn't seem to be deterring people as much as you would think.