Discussion ***Official*** 2023 Stock Market Thread 💰

[AdamK47]

VGT may close at an all time high.

Highest in nearly two years.

 

[repoman0]

Sold a very large chunk of RSUs over the last couple days and can’t decide if I should dump it all into FSKAX right away or wait. So far I’m splitting the difference and have half in a buy order for today.

 

[Artorias]

Soaring today to an all time high. Looks like you chose well.

Considering it's carrying my portfolio I might have to cash in sooner than later to lock in gains.

But then again it's Microsoft, one does not simply sell Microsoft. It's been an absolute powerhouse with great fundamentals disregarding all the AI noise.

If the Fed even so much a hints a rate drop then shits about to explode even more.

 

[jpiniero]

But then again it's Microsoft, one does not simply sell Microsoft. It's been an absolute powerhouse with great fundamentals disregarding all the AI noise.

AI hype is what's been driving the stock so far this year.

Microsoft's actual businesses should suffer when the Fed starts cutting rates, assuming the Fed does because the layoffs have finally come. The stock though...

And Windows is shit now.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

The layoffs I've seen are either from strikes or bad business management. People are still buying are wild rates, so money isn't drying up. Despite a pathetically low income, I have been able to buy anything I wanted or needed and still manage to save money. There are things I have chosen not to buy, or delay buying, but that was based on other factors.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

The weebles are wobbling, but will they fall down?

 

[FelixDeCat]

The weebles are wobbling, but will they fall down?

I've been trading for 25 years (actively). Prior to that you had to pay a broker $49 to $100 or more to buy shares and the same amount to sell so actively trading wasn't feasible.

That being said, the day before TG and they day after are so thinly traded you can have very exaggerated moves up or down.

Considering all the buying lately, I am expecting a pullback. The financial media will call this "profit taking".

If the opposite happens they will call it a short covering rally.

 

[jpiniero]

nVidia at least is making a ton of money off of AI... for now...

They even claim that the sanctions will be "offset" by other buyers. I wonder if China has found a way to get around the sanctions?

 

[FelixDeCat]

ARM on fire to the upside! Good thing I sold too soon!

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Tomorrow .. full day, half day, no day?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Tomorrow .. full day, half day, no day?

It's Fry-day.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Signed up for the Dental plan. Lisa needs braces.

 

[jpiniero]

A rate cut in March is now the favorite. Still not seeing it unless the economy crashes and burns soon.

Edit: There has been some hype that Q1 is when the economy will asplode. So we will see.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

There has been hype that things would go wrong for the last couple of years. So far, nada.

 

[KB]

There has been hype that things would go wrong for the last couple of years. So far, nada.

This is the most expected recession we have seen in a long time. This usually means its not going to happen. I dont see rate cuts unless inflation is sub 2%

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Well, if it's gonna happen, now, Winter or maybe Spring would at least give a chance of recovery. Worst possible timing would be next Fall.

 

[dullard]

This is the most expected recession we have seen in a long time. This usually means its not going to happen. I dont see rate cuts unless inflation is sub 2%

This is a big "if", but if prices stay steady through January's data (released in Feb 2024), then the Fed's perferred PCE price index will be at 2% for January. That is actually a possibility since the holidays often bring price reductions with Black Friday sales, holiday sales, post Christmas sales, and low travel (thus lower gas prices).

It is much more likely though that prices won't stay steady. If they rise slowly, then the PCE price index could hit 2% in April's data (released in May). This is why I think the markets are pricing in a rate cut in the spring.

But, I think there is a fundamental logic flaw there. The Fed won't just see 2% and call it good and immediately cut rates. They'll want several months of data past that point to see if inflation stays low. Plus, the Fed doesn't like to make many changes during an election. So, I personally wouldn't bet on a rate cut until after the election. That is, unless something major and unexpected occurs.

 

[bookem dano]

At what point does AMC become a good very long term hold?

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

^^^ Gremlin or Pacer?

 

[Red Squirrel]

I still have 1 AMC stock I bought for teh lulz during the whole GME thing. To the moon!

 

[AdamK47]

Only the most highly regarded of the smooth brains have dabbled in AMC stock in the past few years.

 

[dullard]

^^^ Gremlin or Pacer?

I drove the Concorde for a couple years. Terrible car in every imaginable way.

 

[dullard]

At what point does AMC become a good very long term hold?

AMC had an annual loss in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and unless something big happens in December will also have an annual loss in 2023. Something that continually loses money is not a good long term hold. When will it become a good long term hold? When they can show that they can generate consistent profits and a valid plan to generate profits in the future (and not by latching onto the latest fad). I like my long term holds to be profit generators, not losers.

Market cap: $1.3 billion
Debt: $4.8 billion.

They owe more than 3x what it is currently valued at.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Ui PATH on fire! Price $23. Good thing I did not buy when it pulled back to $17. 😞

Also got shaken out with a loss on Afirm. Bought at 25, sold at 22, bottomed at 18. Recent high of 35.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

It thinks it can, it thinks it can, it thinks it can .....



S&P trying for 4600