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Discussion ***Official*** 2023 Stock Market Thread 💰

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Lost_in_the_HTTP said:
Lumber futures were $344 on the 14th, jumped to $451 on the 17th and now falling back through $370

Why?
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Thats weird. I noticed the same thing regarding the price of tea in China. 😉

Seriously though. If the Fed stops raising, you can expect all commodites to rise higer (ie inflation)
 
As far as I'm concerned we need double digit interest rates. We need to get inflation down to the good ol days of the 70's or so. Inflation is basically like paying interest on every single purchase that you make and bill etc. I would rather debt have higher interest and everything else costing less.
 
Odds say 50-50 of a hike. We'll see if that changes.

The S&P's been trading in a range, and it is getting close to the peak. Good time for Powell to come out on Monday and say the hike is back on.
 
AdamK47 said:
I sure hope they do.
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jpiniero said:
Odds say 50-50 of a hike. We'll see if that changes.

The S&P's been trading in a range, and it is getting close to the peak. Good time for Powell to come out on Monday and say the hike is back on.
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I've seen more and more stories of a slowing economy, etc., however we are still above the 2% target inflation rate.

Honestly what this country needs is rapid deflation to bring prices back to 2019 levels. Unfortunately this will likely not happen.
 
FelixDeCat said:
Honestly what this country needs is rapid deflation to bring prices back to 2019 levels. Unfortunately this will likely not happen.
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same thing with house prices, but i don't expect it to happen

almost nobody's going to sell their %2 mortgage house without getting enough money to compensate for a %7 mortgage house of equal value

so prices will probably stay the same for years, and people who bought a house between 2010 and 2020 will just end up much better off than people who didn't
 
brianmanahan said:
same thing with house prices, but i don't expect it to happen

almost nobody's going to sell their %2 mortgage house without getting enough money to compensate for a %7 mortgage house of equal value

so prices will probably stay the same for years, and people who bought a house between 2010 and 2020 will just end up much better off than people who didn't
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Mortgage rates should go back down once the crash happens. You can already get ARMs in the 5s, maybe 4s.
 
You know the old aphorism about trying to turn a carrier (or any really big boat) around? It gives you some idea of the fact that economies tend to be slow moving objects which much more difficult to direct than one might think.

What it doesn't capture is the fact that different parts of the economy tend not to move together. So say, a lagging indicator like employment, at least historically, has been one of the last areas to respond regardless of direction.

Of course, a lot of these "inefficiencies" will gradually be excised from the system, it just won't completely cure the problem of a very segmented economy.

The point here is that, even if the FOMC were stupid enough to make any solid, non-qualified statement about rates, once it does indeed stop, it's very, very unlikely that we'll be going to zero risk free rates. anytime soon. It took us 15 years to cultivate some level of trust in the banking system. But pretty much that entire span was an aberration. The monetary punch bowl has been replaced with a half-empty bottle of grape soda.

One more thing that people tend to find puzzling - why is the fed scared shitless by all but the most anemic hints at deflation? To put that in fed speak - 'we don't want rates to fall much below 2% inflation because deflation tends to be self-reinforcing. There are other factors as well but the bottom line is that the fed - in very general terms - knows how moderate inflation, but much less so with deflation.
 
Charmonium said:
The point here is that, even if the FOMC were stupid enough to make any solid, non-qualified statement about rates, once it does indeed stop, it's very, very unlikely that we'll be going to zero risk free rates. anytime soon.
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Wall Street clearly disagrees, given that stocks have stopped falling. They continue to be wrong about the timeline though.
 
CPI numbers wasn't bad... but Shelter continues to be a big problem. Food was flat over a month for the first time in a long time, although I don't know if I agree that's the case. Energy also was down quite a bit.

Doesn't look like it'd be nearly enough to keep the Fed from hiking, but we'll see what they do.
 
The AI hype is crazy right now. Bought this little stock that quadrupled in two days. I was shocked.

I took the risk of holding overnight and it paid off big time as stocks like that usually pull back hard the next day so it was risky move since I was already up for the day. Bought at $5 and went to $10 before pulling back to $7 at the close. The next day at premarket it opened at $23!!

I have lost money trying to trade these. One was a garbage company I knew was no good based in Asia. I bought a small amount as a gamble on my way to the dentist in early April. After the appointment the stock was down from where I bought it. Having little patience and weary of a pullback I just got rid of it and went on about my day. I bought at $6.19 and sold at $5.75. OF COURSE after selling the damn thing closes at $10 then winds up at $35 in a week.

So right now these things are very unpredictable but a lot of fast money is chasing them. Be careful though, a lot of the companies are just complete garbage.
 
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FelixDeCat said:
The AI hype is crazy right now. Bought this little stock that quadrupled in two days. I was shocked.

I took the risk of holding overnight and it paid off big time as stocks like that usually pull back hard the next day so it was risky move since I was already up for the day. Bought at $5 and went to $10 before pulling back to $7 at the close. The next day at premarket it opened at $23!!

I have lost money trying to trade these. One was a garbage company I knew was no good based in Asia. I bought a small amount as a gamble on my way to the dentist in early April. After the appointment the stock was down from where I bought it. Having little patience and weary of a pullback I just got rid of it and went on about my day. I bought at $6.19 and sold at $5.75. OF COURSE after selling the damn thing closes at $10 then winds up at $35 in a week.

So right now these things are very unpredictable but a lot of fast money is chasing them. Be careful though, a lot of the companies are just complete garbage.
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AdamK47 said:
Netflix taking a beating in after hours.

Missed estimates.
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I remember an NF deathwatch on a TV related forum back in '10 or '11 or something like that. Stock was in the 50s as I recall. We were trying to figure out how low it would go. That was when there were open calls for the CEO to resign.
 
AdamK47 said:
Netflix taking a beating in after hours.

Missed estimates.
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Turned out to be a "prime" buying opportunity for a trade. Too bad my money is all tied up. Also, Fidelity is a not broker for traders. Never seen the rules so strictly enforced, to the extreme, by a factor of 10.
 
FelixDeCat said:
Turned out to be a "prime" buying opportunity for a trade. Too bad my money is all tied up. Also, Fidelity is a not broker for traders. Never seen the rules so strictly enforced, to the extreme, by a factor of 10.
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What rules would that be? I know they like to keep the retail investor in safe spaces for trading. You have to opt in for things like after-market, pre-market, and options trading.
 
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