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Discussion ***Official*** 2022 Stock Market Thread

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jpiniero said:
Zuck announced 11k job cuts this morning. That seems like a lot for them.
Click to expand...

It's a lot, but even after the current layoffs, they still have around 76000 employees. That's more than they had in the beginning of 2022 - 71970 employees, and around 72% higher than their pre-covid numbers (44,942 at beginning of 2020).
 
linkgoron said:
It's a lot, but even after the current layoffs, they still have around 76000 employees. That's more than they had in the beginning of 2022 - 71970 employees, and around 72% higher than their pre-covid numbers (44,942 at beginning of 2020).
Click to expand...

Maybe they are counting on some attrition after doing these layoffs.
 
linkgoron said:
It's a lot, but even after the current layoffs, they still have around 76000 employees. That's more than they had in the beginning of 2022 - 71970 employees, and around 72% higher than their pre-covid numbers (44,942 at beginning of 2020).
Click to expand...

Wow! All you need is algos to thin the herd.
 
Got lucky selling half my Big Oil holdings on Monday.
. . . Small victories . . .

Anyone else tempted to buy Disney? 😀 My trigger finger is itching.
 
The CPI numbers were still not great. Just better than expected. I will say the rally feels realer than the other three times this has happened.
 
Missed the boat again for a one or two day long buy. Tempted to give that up and just buy some single stocks now in tech and see where they are in 5 years, At least my traditional mutual funds are happy about today.
 
jpiniero said:
The CPI numbers were still not great. Just better than expected. I will say the rally feels realer than the other three times this has happened.
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Could you please help me? Which dates had the bad inflation period in the official CPU-U data below?

1668108039009.png
 
dullard said:
Could you please help me? Which dates had the bad inflation period in the official CPU-U data below?
Click to expand...

Dunno where you got that graph from. I'm going by the official CPI chart. It is slowing down but not anywhere near good enough. The Fed is going to continue to raise rates.

I'm skeptical that the Fed just pausing further hikes would justify a (real) rally but we'll see. This rally today is like people think the Money Printer will be back on by Christmas. That's not happening.
 
jpiniero said:
Dunno where you got that graph from. I'm going by the official CPI chart. It is slowing down but not anywhere near good enough. The Fed is going to continue to raise rates.

I'm skeptical that the Fed just pausing further hikes would justify a (real) rally but we'll see. This rally today is like people think the Money Printer will be back on by Christmas. That's not happening.
Click to expand...
I put the link on the chart title. Here is the link: https://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atlantic/data/consumerpriceindexhistorical_us_table.htm I graphed the top table, CPI-U.

Yes, the Fed is going to continue to raise rates. That was never a question. The question is how high will the rates be when the Fed stops raising rates. This CPI data is a significant decrease in where that final rate will likely need to be. A core CPI increase of 0.3% in a month (~3.6% per year) is acceptable. Sure, we'd like lower, but there has now been a trend of multiple months of low inflation. The headline number of 7.7% includes the months with big inflation and months with low inflation. That is why I'm asking you which months are which.
 
Money supply is also shrinking. But I can't say whether that's due to the rate hikes decreasing demand for money or actual moves by the FOMC to slurp up extra liquidity.
fred.stlouisfed.org

M1

View a measure of the most-liquid assets in the U.S. money supply: cash, checking accounts, traveler's checks, demand deposits, and other checkable deposits.
fred.stlouisfed.org
,
 
Charmonium said:
Money supply is also shrinking. But I can't say whether that's due to the rate hikes decreasing demand for money or actual moves by the FOMC to slurp up extra liquidity.
fred.stlouisfed.org

M1

View a measure of the most-liquid assets in the U.S. money supply: cash, checking accounts, traveler's checks, demand deposits, and other checkable deposits.
fred.stlouisfed.org
,
Click to expand...

Maybe cutting their massive asset hoard is something the Fed could do to 'tighten' once they do stop hiking.

Should mention that WS also bought massive amounts of treasuries. I think the going rate dropped like a half a point. The implication being that this is about as good as it's going to get.
 
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