Discussion ***Official*** 2022 Stock Market Thread

[AdamK47]

I do what most people do with their 401K. Leave it alone. It'll get less aggressive as time goes on with a target date. I'll retire before the target date. Money will remain in there to grow until then.

 

[zinfamous]

I did switch my 401k into something far more aggressive a couple months back (a bit before the true bottom). So yes I did (partially) buy out of the bottom. I also have a pile of cash that I want to invest but have not yet done so. So, in that sense, I also partially missed the bottom.

I still wonder if this is a dead cat bounce that will drop again near September. If so, I'll put the cash in.

I was going to say "what do you mean, the True Bottom? how do you know this?" Then you answered that in your last statement and I'm not yet sure if this is all clicking, yet...

Carry on....?

 

[jpiniero]

Money will remain in there to grow until then.

That's exactly why I moved it. I want the money to grow, not shrink.

While I can't argue with the logic that if Powell has to choose between recession and inflation, he'll chose inflation, it still seems like they are jumping the gun.

 

[snoopy7548]

That's exactly why I moved it. I want the money to grow, not shrink.

While I can't argue with the logic that if Powell has to choose between recession and inflation, he'll chose inflation, it still seems like they are jumping the gun.

Chasing short-term gains with a 401k is a fool's errand; the entire point is long-term growth. If a market downturn causes you to change your investment strategy, you didn't have the right mix to being with.

I've stuck with 90/10 (stocks/bonds) since the beginning and I'll only rebalance if I need to.

 

[jpiniero]

Chasing short-term gains with a 401k is a fool's errand; the entire point is long-term growth. If a market downturn causes you to change your investment strategy, you didn't have the right mix to being with.

I've stuck with 90/10 (stocks/bonds) since the beginning and I'll only rebalance if I need to.

This isn't a normal market downturn because of how overpriced the market is due to the pumping.

That being said, gambling that the Fed will cut back to zero and turn the money printer back on soon isn't a terrible bet. But it's still a gamble. A still very high July CPI number and I imagine we will retest the lows and then some.

 

[dullard]

I was going to say "what do you mean, the True Bottom? how do you know this?" Then you answered that in your last statement and I'm not yet sure if this is all clicking, yet...

Carry on....?

I think a more appropriate and more understandable term that I should have used was "local minimum". I have edited my post that you quoted to reflect this.

I had a very aggressive investment portfolio. I was young and could tolerate the risk. But as the S&P skyrocketed for the last 13 years, and as I got older and closer to retirement, I thought that it was wise to be more conservative (slightly) with my investments. I wanted to go from 100% stocks to more towards a 80% to 85% stocks. Thus when the S&P crossed the ~3200 mark (about a 4.5x rise since I started investing), I went more and more conservative with new investments until I reached my target. I should have waited longer but I didn't really think we'd hit almost 4800 in a pandemic. Now that I have about a 80% stock / 20% stable mixture, it was time to go back to investing in stocks again otherwise I would have a portfolio that is too conservative. I did that in mid-May of this year. This was a bit before the S&P hit a bottom at 3666 on June 16.


Normally the advice is to invest your stable money in bonds. But bonds were paying next to nothing, so I invested in a cash-like annuity investment fund that my retirement account has (with insurance coverage so that it cannot lose money). It paid 1.82% and was more stable than bonds.

 

[AdamK47]

We turned positive on the S&P 500. Could last weeks rally continue?

 

[FelixDeCat]

We turned positive on the S&P 500. Could last weeks rally continue?

My 401k says maybe. I went all in on Friday despite what normally happens on Oct.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Wake me when the S&P gets back to 4,800

 

[FelixDeCat]

Laugh at me. I bought AMTD before it crashed.

Still have them, lol

 

[FelixDeCat]

The reason why AMTD was up 300% today was they supposedly hold a large position in a company they IPO'd a week or so, HKD.

Within a week or so, HKD went from $14.00 per share to $2,500 per share (before closing today to just $1700), which makes Gamestop look like child's play.

I dont know if AMTD actually holds any HKD but I do know that supposedly HKD only had $25M in sales and now sports a market cap that is TRIPLE that of NFLX!!! (AMTD $300 billion, NFLX $100 billion). At its high it was nearly valued as much as Tesla - in two damn weeks!~

Obviously that is nonsensical and holds no basis in reality. It is a $20 stock, at best.

I think part of the reason why AMTD took off so much is options are not available, an IPO stock cannot be shorted so close to being offered and perhaps just pure manipulation (what else is new?)




It usually takes 30 days for IPO stock to be available to short. I suspect this might be the greatest short ever.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Laugh at me. I bought AMTD before it crashed.

Still have them, lol

Got our premarket at a tiny profit. I suspect both stocks might get halted indefinitely and open 99% lower one day. Way too risky for my blood, even for the token amount I had.

 

[AdamK47]

That must be one amazing fintech company with a game changing strategy to shake up the world of finance.

Or not.

 

[jpiniero]

Rate odds have gone back up. But there's plenty of volatility. Certinately doesn't seem like Wall Street is going to get their cut to zero soon.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Rate odds have gone back up. But there's plenty of volatility. Certinately doesn't seem like Wall Street is going to get their cut to zero soon.

Lucky I bought QQQ when I did. Long term rates are up but still historically low.

 

[AdamK47]

Wish I had bought more shares of VTI. Only added a little over 100 in the $180 to $200 range over the past few months. Going to see what the end of Sept. brings.

 

[AdamK47]

Jobs report estimate was way off. Estimate was 250,000. Actual 528,000.

Futures down bigly.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Market has been in "we don't care" mode for awhile. I wonder if we wind up flat on the day.

Next week is where we see the real reaction with new CPI data.

 

[jpiniero]

Jobs report estimate was way off. Estimate was 250,000. Actual 528,000.

Futures down bigly.

This did move the rate odds to make triple hike the favorite in September. We'll see what the CPI says.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Nm

 

[AdamK47]

2 year yield up 0.20. Stocks flat. VIX somehow down 3%.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Bed bath and beyond is up 41% atm.

 

[AdamK47]

Bed bath and beyond is up 41% atm.

You got stuff like this going on.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/wj61rj

 

[FelixDeCat]

Siga is better than bed, bath and beyond!

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Are you buying more?


The 'lipstick index' says people buy more makeup when times get tough. Here's where it comes from — and whether it can really predict a recession.

Business Insider|25 minutes ago
If you've started to treat yourself to little luxuries, despite how expensive everything is right now, you're proving out the lipstick index.