Discussion ***Official*** 2022 Stock Market Thread

[KB]

Can anybody guess what Powell testimony will do to the markets? Will we have a monster rally back up to QQQ $380?

He raises a 1/4 point and the market rises slightly because they don't know what that means for further rates.

 

[jpiniero]

He raises a 1/4 point and the market rises slightly because they don't know what that means for further rates.

The meeting is two weeks from now. Felix is talking about Powell's testimony at Congress which is today.

 

[jpiniero]

WTI is at 107.

 

[FelixDeCat]

He raises a 1/4 point and the market rises slightly because they don't know what that means for further rates.

Most likely .25 at next meeting.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The meeting is two weeks from now. Felix is talking about Powell's testimony at Congress which is today.

The market likes what Powell had to say.

 

[AdamK47]

Makes sense to start off low with all that's going on in the world. Markets up and remain up today.

 

[jpiniero]

The market likes what Powell had to say.

Gotta say I am starting to believe that the Fed will raise rates. But inflation might be at a point where a quarter point here and there isn't going to do much to inflation or the stock market.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Oil and gold going bonkers right now.

Oil traders are making the exact same mistake they made in the spike of early 2008 on Chinese demand. They were heavily shorting oil at $115 and it rocketed up to $150 a barrel within 48 hours because of all the panicky short covering.

It is bonkers to try and short commodities. Best to just stay away.

 

[Red Squirrel]

My corporate ESP is going to the moon.

I've been thinking of cashing out soon to pay off the credit line so now I'm kinda thinking of waiting to see how things play out as I may be able to get better return if I wait.

All my self bought stocks are not doing that well though and never really did but my entire account as a whole is doing a positive return because of one stock doing well. I'm thinking of dumping all of that into silver. Or just cash out and put it on credit line.

I'm thinking of just sticking to the ESP stocks, and silver/gold.

In the next few years I really want to buy an EV so I want to focus on paying off debt first. If I can pay off the credit line and mortgage I could afford to just finance one.

 

[ultimatebob]

I'm kinda glad that I dumped my Coinbase stock a few weeks ago.

I didn't really get rid of the stock because I think that crypto is dead... I dumped it because Coinbase is a poorly run company. After prepping my 2021 taxes, I realized that their commissions are insanely high and their customer service is practically non-existant. I came to the realization that they're like the "AOL of crypto", and that most people who are still investing in crypto are going to switch to a different exchange.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The commodity nickel has tripled in price from $30,000 in January to $100,000 per ton after Russian sanctions. Used to make things like batteries, stainless steel and nickles (25%). The price spiked to the point where trading was halted:

Nickel Spikes to $100K a Ton. London Halts Trading.

The London Metal Exchange suspends trading in the nickels market following what it called 'unprecedented' overnight price increases.

www.barrons.com

 

[FelixDeCat]

I'm kinda glad that I dumped my Coinbase stock a few weeks ago.

I didn't really get rid of the stock because I think that crypto is dead... I dumped it because Coinbase is a poorly run company. After prepping my 2021 taxes, I realized that their commissions are insanely high and their customer service is practically non-existant. I came to the realization that they're like the "AOL of crypto", and that most people who are still investing in crypto are going to switch to a different exchange.

Would have been a nice short. Shares were freely available to borrower from most brokers. I did a few times but not for much and only intraday.

 

[repoman0]

I'm kinda glad that I dumped my Coinbase stock a few weeks ago.

I didn't really get rid of the stock because I think that crypto is dead... I dumped it because Coinbase is a poorly run company. After prepping my 2021 taxes, I realized that their commissions are insanely high and their customer service is practically non-existant. I came to the realization that they're like the "AOL of crypto", and that most people who are still investing in crypto are going to switch to a different exchange.

Yeah I said this in the last thread while @ponyo was going all in at >$300 😂 I didn’t think anything too bad would happen to them until the big boys e.g. Fidelity set up their own version of crypto trading (coming soon looks like? “Fidelity digital assets”) … but you can’t milk your customers for a dollar per tiny trade and expect that they’re too stupid to do some research and realize they need to be looking elsewhere.

 

[KB]

My oil stocks are making a killing, but consumer discretionary are not. I hate this imbalance because when the reversion to the mean happens, I have to sell the oil stocks beforehand and pay taxes on the gains, but don't really want to sell the consumer discretionary to offset them. First world problems.

I still think BP, TTE and SHEL are cheap. They have/had exposure to Russia, but so do American producers like Exxon. Yet the European oil majors got smacked from the exposure and American did not.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Bear market rally.

Sell.

 

[ultimatebob]

Nice!

Amazon board approves 20-for-1 stock split, its first since before the dot-com bust

(GeekWire Photo / Kevin Lisota) Amazon's board has approved the company's first stock split in more than two decades. Subject to shareholder approval, the

www.geekwire.com

That should be good for a 15% price bump.

I bought some AMZN stock when I sold my Coinbase stock. I'm feeling even better about that move now.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Nice!

Amazon board approves 20-for-1 stock split, its first since before the dot-com bust

(GeekWire Photo / Kevin Lisota) Amazon's board has approved the company's first stock split in more than two decades. Subject to shareholder approval, the

www.geekwire.com

That should be good for a 15% price bump.

I bought some AMZN stock when I sold my Coinbase stock. I'm feeling even better about that move now.

Amazon pulled the market out of the dumps today - almost.

 

[AdamK47]

It went further into the dumps.

I have quite a bit sitting on the sidelines doing nothing. Had I known better, I would have put more int VDE. It was staring me right in the face at the start of Russia's misdeeds.

 

[jpiniero]

QQQ is getting close to it's value a year ago. And the Fed hasn't even raised rates yet.We'll see if they actually go through with a hike next week.

 

[FelixDeCat]

QQQ is getting close to it's value a year ago. And the Fed hasn't even raised rates yet.We'll see if they actually go through with a hike next week.

I dont know if you remember the year 2000 bubble. The QQQs began trading in April 1999 @ $52 per share. By early 2000 they reached and all time high of $105 each. Three years later, the QQQs were languishing between $19 and $40 a share.


I think fair value for the QQQs might be somewhere around $240 to $250.


2022 will be about preservation of capital. Lots of traps out there for investors. Bonds are not safe and neither are stocks with rates on the rise. Then of course there is the war in Ukraine.

 

[FelixDeCat]

If we have to sanction China the same way we did Russia (for invading Taiwan or siding up with Russia), you might have the seeds of a major global recession like we saw in 2008.

 

[AdamK47]

The world would react stronger to China invading Taiwan than it does currently to Russia invading Ukraine. China knows this.

The sad truth is an offensive reaction to the war in Ukraine is of little benefit to the rest of the world. Not so with Taiwan where 92% of the world's semiconductor manufacturing takes place.

 

[FelixDeCat]

We will probably get a bounce after the Fed raises .25 percent on Wednesday.


Will it will be a dead cat bounce?

 

[KB]

Oil plunging as fast as it rose. It was the traders all along, there was no shortage.

 

[brianmanahan]

Oil plunging as fast as it rose. It was the traders all along, there was no shortage.

and they would've gotten away with it too, if it weren't for that meddling ATOT gas prices thread!