Discussion ***Official*** 2021 Stock Market Thread

[FelixDeCat]

Tesla and over EV cos are getting pimp slapped again.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Tesla and over EV cos are getting pimp slapped again.

I'll never sell.

 

[Svnla]

At least the US stock market is not this bad..yet.

China’s stock market has wiped out $1 trillion in value in the past three weeks. The CSI 300 Index fell 2.2% at the close on Monday, as persistent liquidity concerns overshadowed data showing the strength of the nation’s economic recovery.

Battered China Traders Sell Engagement Ring, Grandpa’s Watch (yahoo.com)

Don't forget the guy that owns Wanda. Once the richest in Asia, now not even the top 20 in mainland china.

China Tycoon Who Lost $32 Billion Tries to Salvage an Empire (yahoo.com)

.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Stocks will likely continue declines next week, but it will be choppy with ups and downs along the way.

Relatively speaking, rates are at all time lows so even if the 10 year bond goes over 2% a lot sooner than expected that will pressure stocks. But since rates are low, stocks may still go back up on "bargain hunting".

Choppy trading with a downward trend until we hit 2% is my guess for the next 30 days.

 

[IEC]

I expect volatility.

I love volatility.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Not exactly stocks, but I bought this during the dip. If I sell now I should be able to afford a Tesla.

 

[jpiniero]

Relatively speaking, rates are at all time lows so even if the 10 year bond goes over 2% a lot sooner than expected that will pressure stocks. But since rates are low, stocks may still go back up on "bargain hunting".

Don't you think the Fed would start buying if it gets near 2%?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Not exactly stocks, but I bought this during the dip. If I sell now I should be able to afford a Tesla.

Wood you take $1 a plank and ship free to Texas?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Don't you think the Fed would start buying if it gets near 2%?

It seems as though they are implying a hands off policy for now, which is why it is going up w/impunity. This despite a projected GDP of 5%+.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Wood you take $1 a plank and ship free to Texas?

The longer ones are going for like $40 now lol. (2x6x14)

 

[FelixDeCat]

The longer ones are going for like $40 now lol. (2x6x14)

$40 CAD is like about $2 or $3 US correct?



Seriously though, I remember when both were at parity once.

 

[Aharami]

Not exactly stocks, but I bought this during the dip. If I sell now I should be able to afford a Tesla.

I've been holding off on building my 16x20 shed. I should've bought when the prices dipped to $4.50/2x4. Now they're back up to $6.50 and climbing.

 

[PlanetJosh]

So thinking about buying lots of the spac Fintech Acquisition Corp V, $FTCV tomorrow. It's mostly not favored in the reddit r/spacs, they say its $10B valuation is way too high. A few others argue that doesn't matter very much.

But Betsy Cohen founder of Bancorp helped organize the planned FTCV/eToro merger and Cramer favors it on his tv show last Friday. FTCV will take eToro public, a retail brokerage trading platform for Europe, Israel and some other countries outside the U.S. It competes with RobinHood.

It may be risky of course so you probably shouldn't buy into it for more than you can afford to lose. But I've never got in on so many stocks that went way up like Neo (over 3 years) and others so maybe eToro is it. Or I could lose multiple tens of thousands of $.

 

[FelixDeCat]

So thinking about buying lots of the spac Fintech Acquisition Corp V, $FTCV tomorrow. It's mostly not favored in the reddit r/spacs, they say its $10B valuation is way too high. A few others argue that doesn't matter very much.

But Betsy Cohen founder of Bancorp helped organize the planned FTCV/eToro merger and Cramer favors it on his tv show last Friday. FTCV will take eToro public, a retail brokerage trading platform for Europe, Israel and some other countries outside the U.S. It competes with RobinHood.

It may be risky of course so you probably shouldn't buy into it for more than you can afford to lose. But I've never got in on so many stocks that went way up like Neo (over 3 years) and others so maybe eToro is it. Or I could lose multiple tens of thousands of $.

Seems interesting. Will keep any eye on this one.

 

[FelixDeCat]

New Zealand Takes Aim at Speculators to Prevent Housing Bubble

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zealand-targets-speculators-assault-house-200000770.html

(Bloomberg) -- New Zealand’s government took aim at property speculators with a suite of new measures to tackle runaway house prices and prevent the formation of a “dangerous” bubble.

The government will remove tax incentives for investors to make speculation less lucrative and unlock more land to increase housing supply, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said Tuesday in Wellington. The moves come as surging house prices keep first-time buyers and people on lower incomes out of the market, raising concerns about growing societal inequality.

“The last thing home owners need right now is a dangerous housing bubble, but a number of indicators point towards that risk,” Ardern told a news conference. “Property investors are now the biggest share of buyers, with the highest amount of purchases on record. Last year, 15,000 people bought homes who already owned five or more.”

************​

I think we need a similar effort in the US to make homes more available to first time home buyers. Our tax laws favor investor interests to such an extent as to tip the scales far in their favor vs. average single family home owner with one home.

 

[herm0016]

I think we need a similar effort in the US to make homes more available to first time home buyers. Our tax laws favor investor interests to such an extent as to tip the scales far in their favor vs. average single family home owner with one home.

How do they do that? Home owners can write off interest and profit from the sale of a home, investors can not. Are you talking depreciation and such?

 

[FelixDeCat]

How do they do that? Home owners can write off interest and profit from the sale of a home, investors can not. Are you talking depreciation and such?

* Mostly tax free cash flow until the investment to purchase the home is recouped. This also applies to other areas as such as oil/gas investments, etc.

* The ability to avoid paying income tax on capital gains by buying "like kind" property in a 1031 Exchange. You can build your empire mostly tax free then pass it along, again, TAX FREE (up to the inheritance limits per individual).

* Write off all expenses related to upkeep, property taxes, etc.

* If you form an LLC, then mortgage interest is deductible as an expense as long as the loan is in the companies name and the funds are used for business purposes.

Non-tax related benefits:

* Price appreciation.

* Ability to use large amounts of leverage since you can usually secure an investor loan for 15%-20% down. This could be a good thing when the economy is great and renters pay rent or a bad thing when things go south.

Supposedly the best RE investments are multi-family like duplexes or if you have the money, large apartment complexes ("beehives").

 

[herm0016]

investor loans are 25% down. I have owned several investment properties, a business should have to claim taxes on gross revenue and not profit? you still pay income taxes on revenue from the property - expenses. the investor is also taking on the risk of depreciation, vacancy, regulatory risk, maintenance, etc. 80% of rental units in the US are owned by people that have less than 5 units, people like me, you, and your neighbor. The other 20% are owned by big corps.


anyhow. what do you propose? we already have government backed loans with low down payments and lax approval criteria, worked out great last time those were really pushed.

how about an overhaul of the "credit score" system, and some real financial education. i am lucky my dad did some investing, owned a business, etc. I got to learn all about how these things work. address the skyrocketing cost of education, and not by the government paying the government backed loan sharks that pay the government funded schools..... address the cost structure, just like a real business, not a government funded feedback loop. anyhow... rant over.


i'm getting bashed in the head today, stonks dipping below my cost basis. boooo... workhorse, tilray, aphira. my ark genomics etf is sucking big ones for a while now as well.

 

[jpiniero]

Guess Wall Street didn't like what they heard from Fed testimony today.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Guess Wall Street didn't like what they heard from Fed testimony today.

Speculators gonna speculate.

 

[AdamK47]

VHYAX vs. VDIGX

I want to get into some Dividend growth funds. These are the two I narrowed it down to be. I just can't decide on which of the two I like the most. What's your take on the pros and cons of each?

And... go!

 

[KB]

VHYAX vs. VDIGX

I want to get into some Dividend growth funds. These are the two I narrowed it down to be. I just can't decide on which of the two I like the most. What's your take on the pros and cons of each?

And... go!

VHYAX is not considered dividend growth, it is a High Dividend yield fund. It has > 3% current yield compared to VDIGX which has a 1.6%

Dividend Growth acts like growth. It does better during boom times and the dividend grows at a faster rate.
Dividend Yield grows the dividend slower, as it has already high yields from Telecom, banks and utilities. It does better during busts.

I have several ETF versions of these, like VYM and DGRO. I would be in both, but in the long run growth tends to outperform.

 

[dullard]

What's your take on the pros and cons of each?

Do remember a big con of each is the dividends if you do this in a taxable account. A lot of people are caught surprised when:
1) they buy $10000 in stock,
2) the next day they get a $300 dividend,
3) so their stock is now worth only $9700, so they haven't gained a thing,
4) but they now owe taxes on that $300 "gain".

Dividend stock is much better held in a tax-deferred account.

 

[ponyo]

Do remember a big con of each is the dividends if you do this in a taxable account. A lot of people are caught surprised when:
1) they buy $10000 in stock,
2) the next day they get a $300 dividend,
3) so their stock is now worth only $9700, so they haven't gained a thing,
4) but they now owe taxes on that $300 "gain".

Dividend stock is much better held in a tax-deferred account.

That's what they teach you in college but in real life, it rarely works like that. The stock value should go down by the dividend amount but what normally happens is the stock drops slightly if at all and quickly recovers. Or not. Dividend payment is just noise.

Rocket Companies (RKT) paid out their special dividend yesterday. It was very large one time special dividend. What you described did not happen.

Again, Costco has paid out special one time large dividend couple times the past 5 years. What you described did not happen. Apple has paid out special dividend. What you described did not happen.

Theory is not real life.

But I agree with you taxes on dividend makes it undesirable. It's the same thing with selling options. It's taxed as short term gain which can mean very large tax depending on your tax bracket.

 

[dullard]

That's what they teach you in college but in real life, it rarely works like that. The stock value should go down by the dividend amount but what normally happens is the stock drops slightly if at all and quickly recovers. Or not. Dividend payment is just noise.

It works pretty commonly for mutual funds.

VDIGX Dec 28, 2020: $33.67
VDIGX dividend paid Dec 29, 2020: $0.69
VDIGX Dec 29, 2020: $32.95 (drop of $0.72)

The end result, however, is the dividend drop plus whatever happened to the broader market that day. The market's daily move could be more than the dividend and seem like the dividend had no effect.