Discussion ***Official*** 2021 Stock Market Thread

[ultimatebob]

So pissed. Held Twitter from $17 but sold two weeks ago thinking it wasn’t going to move anymore. Of course it did. At least I locked in some profit, but I had planned to hold long term.

Sold a $55 CSP today for decent premium and will keep rolling it until I get assigned.

I too believe in Twitter long term and should have just kept holding.

I figured that Twitter's usage would go down now that Trump isn't on the platform. Most of his fans probably no longer use the site, along with a bunch of Trump haters who just wanted to complain about what he said

 

[manlymatt83]

I figured that Twitter's usage would go down now that Trump isn't on the platform. Most of his fans probably no longer use the site, along with a bunch of Trump haters who just wanted to complain about what he said

Might be the case next quarter. We will see. However, I really like where they’re going with the subscription model.

 

[dasherHampton]

I've been busy so I haven't been able to check until now.

WHEW did I get rid of a dog just in time. I decided to sell my QLYS at a loss to buy more SRNE. I bought 100 shares at around $126 and sold around $117.

The thing is down another $7.50 after hours to $110. Sometimes you get lucky.

 

[manlymatt83]

Anyone in BOMN? Boston Omaha?

 

[Artorias]

So I was looking a the PE ratio of S&P 500 and don't really know what to make of it. Historically its been between 10-20, but that seems to be changing, maybe we're in a new era of 15-30 with much wilder swings.

S&P 500 PE Ratio - Multpl

S&P 500 PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current S&P 500 PE Ratio is 30.35, a change of -0.34 from previous market close.

www.multpl.com

I haven't a clue what's in store but I'm about 80% in long term with some solid companies and ETF's.

I'm ready for some discount shopping though. In before Ponyo tells me the PE doesn't mean jack and points to Tesla haha.

 

[dasherHampton]

I've been looking for my next victim and I think I found it.

FUBO puts are rich.

3/19 35s are at 3.55
3/26 35s are at 3.90

Going out to May 21

30s are at 4.65

Low Fubo price target at 30, average around 45.

That's enough for tonight.

 

[zinfamous]

Geez... what happened to this thread? The asshole stench of P&N seems to have wafted over here.

...I just think it's unfair that SVNLA selectively picked my comments (from P&N--so no, I know I didn't bring that shit in here), instead of the one where I politely suggested that the individual tenderly go fuck themselves. Talk about bias!


---
Anyway, no one here has any experience with SPACS or understand how they work, either? Is this system all just too new to make any kind of informed decisions about them on a case by case basis?

 

[zinfamous]

The people paying $65 for Tilray today are obviously on weed.

very likely true.

 

[zinfamous]

So I was looking a the PE ratio of S&P 500 and don't really know what to make of it. Historically its been between 10-20, but that seems to be changing, maybe we're in a new era of 15-30 with much wilder swings.

S&P 500 PE Ratio - Multpl

S&P 500 PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current S&P 500 PE Ratio is 30.35, a change of -0.34 from previous market close.

www.multpl.com

I haven't a clue what's in store but I'm about 80% in long term with some solid companies and ETF's.

I'm ready for some discount shopping though. In before Ponyo tells me the PE doesn't mean jack and points to Tesla haha.

I'm sure that ponyo's argument for the meaning of P/E on a single stock can't be applied to P/E on an index, and I'm sure he would agree. At least, if you follow is argument, which is reasonable from a predictive standpoint, P/E really only has meaning when you have a LOT of data points to consider (an index of many stocks), and doesn't really say anything when you are looking at a single data point and trying to infer a lot of meaning about future behavior.

 

[ponyo]

My issue with PE is that it's rearview looking number. Young company often have negative PE or extremely high PE because they're either losing money or barely profitable. But that young company is growing extremely fast and investing all their money into growth. Which they should. So as that company grows, they start making money. Sometimes insane amount of money. Then that high PE drops and becomes low PE. But if you wait until the stock has low PE, you would've missed out on the huge part of their growth as that company grew into their valuation.

When you invest in growth stock, what you want to look at is PEG or Price/Earnings to Growth ratio. This will tell you if a company might be undervalued or not. Company can have low P/E but if it's not growing, then it could be overvalued compared to a company that has higher P/E but growing rapidly. What happens is that P/E of rapidly growing company will come down in the future as they generate greater earnings and the P/E will become lower than the slow growing company with lower current P/E.

Stock market is forward looking mechanism. So you have to skate to where the puck is going and not where the puck is now. Looking at current PE and buying on that is like buying based on where the puck is now. You're going to get left behind because you're slow and stupid. Predicting where the puck is going requires some thought and calculations. The ability to look ahead and see the future. You have to model for future growth which may or may not happen. And that guess and calculations might end up incorrect and you skate to wrong place and not where the puck actually ended up. But that's the risk with investing. And that's what makes it so hard. You can't 100% predict the future with accuracy. You can only make your best guess.

Most people are morons and lazy. They don't want to sit down and think ahead and try to come up with financial model for the company 2-3 years down the line. Then 5 years. Then 10 years. They're stupid and blind. They have no concept of exponential growth and S curve. So they look at the rearview mirror and think current PE is what future PE will always be. This thread is full of people who are blind. They know who they are. They have myopic views and think really small.

But PE does work better with indexes. Indexes are made up of hundreds if not thousands of companies. Some are growing fast. Some are growing slow. Some are not growing at all and actually decreasing. So looking at PE makes more sense for indexes. And looking at PE can make sense for value stocks because the best growth days are behind them. Value stocks tend to grow really slow. So PE is more stable. So look at PE for value stocks if you want. But looking at PE for company that's growing 50% yoy and thinking PE will stay the same in the future is stupid.

 

[Torn Mind]

ZBRA beat earnings again and popped up a bit.

Company has had a good long term upswing for years.

 

[FelixDeCat]

My issue with PE is that it's rearview looking number. Young company often have negative PE or extremely high PE because they're either losing money or barely profitable. But that young company is growing extremely fast and investing all their money into growth. Which they should. So as that company grows, they start making money. Sometimes insane amount of money. Then that high PE drops and becomes low PE. But if you wait until the stock has low PE, you would've missed out on the huge part of their growth as that company grew into their valuation.

When you invest in growth stock, what you want to look at is PEG or Price/Earnings to Growth ratio. This will tell you if a company might be undervalued or not. Company can have low P/E but if it's not growing, then it could be overvalued compared to a company that has higher P/E but growing rapidly. What happens is that P/E of rapidly growing company will come down in the future as they generate greater earnings and the P/E will become lower than the slow growing company with lower current P/E.

Stock market is forward looking mechanism. So you have to skate to where the puck is going and not where the puck is now. Looking at current PE and buying on that is like buying based on where the puck is now. You're going to get left behind because you're slow and stupid. Predicting where the puck is going requires some thought and calculations. The ability to look ahead and see the future. You have to model for future growth which may or may not happen. And that guess and calculations might end up incorrect and you skate to wrong place and not where the puck actually ended up. But that's the risk with investing. And that's what makes it so hard. You can't 100% predict the future with accuracy. You can only make your best guess.

Most people are morons and lazy. They don't want to sit down and think ahead and try to come up with financial model for the company 2-3 years down the line. Then 5 years. Then 10 years. They're stupid and blind. They have no concept of exponential growth and S curve. So they look at the rearview mirror and think current PE is what future PE will always be. This thread is full of people who are blind. They know who they are. They have myopic views and think really small.

But PE does work better with indexes. Indexes are made up of hundreds if not thousands of companies. Some are growing fast. Some are growing slow. Some are not growing at all and actually decreasing. So looking at PE makes more sense for indexes. And looking at PE can make sense for value stocks because the best growth days are behind them. Value stocks tend to grow really slow. So PE is more stable. So look at PE for value stocks if you want. But looking at PE for company that's growing 50% yoy and thinking PE will stay the same in the future is stupid.

In this market PE does not matter as much, its all about hype (or potential and future growth, if you want to put it that way), because we are in a Fed fueled bull market that makes people feel invulnerable to selloffs.

But in flat to lower markets, PE matters more since you know you can count on demonstrable earnings to carry your investments to better days.

Sure there are always exceptions and if you can find them (and pray you are not wrong), you can make good money....but you better be right.

 

[FelixDeCat]

very likely true.

I knew Tilray @ $65 seemed frothy. Too much money on the table for earlier investors.

When I saw the pot stocks getting smashed this morning I was thinking to myself....

"Up in smoke...thats where my pot investment money goes..."

 

[njdevilsfan87]

Sold 10 puts of TLRY this morning for tomorrow, strike price of $25, for 0.25 ($250 total). If it actually drops down there by tomorrow evening and the overall market still looks strong I will try to play the bounce. No idea what else to do today since I'm not really comfortable taking any new longer options at the moment. But TLRY is significantly overpriced compared to APHA (merger) and should not be trading at these levels.

Otherwise Bitcoin is doing well this morning so let's keep this party going!

 

[dasherHampton]

I bet if weed stocks paid a monthly dividend in weed they'd go to the moon.

 

[dasherHampton]

I guess the SAVA hissy fit is over for now.

I can absolutely understand why people were pissed.SAVA offered 200 million in shares to insiders at $49 while the market price was sitting at $57.

I don't know what the rational for a move like that is. But cure Alzheimers and all will be forgiven.

 

[herm0016]

I took my principal back in hopes they really crash and i can pick up more. i'm still over double on tilray, ogi. I still like my cost basis.

 

[KB]

So I was looking a the PE ratio of S&P 500 and don't really know what to make of it. Historically its been between 10-20, but that seems to be changing, maybe we're in a new era of 15-30 with much wilder swings.

S&P 500 PE Ratio - Multpl

S&P 500 PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current S&P 500 PE Ratio is 30.35, a change of -0.34 from previous market close.

www.multpl.com

I haven't a clue what's in store but I'm about 80% in long term with some solid companies and ETF's.

I'm ready for some discount shopping though. In before Ponyo tells me the PE doesn't mean jack and points to Tesla haha.

Every bull markets end when people start talking about a "new paradigm". Unfortunately we actually are in a new paradigm. We have never had interest rates this low for this long, so money can only make money in stocks. Even bonds aren't paying much.

2020 Outlook: Euphoria To Despair

If euphoria signals market tops, then it seems we are about to get that delusion.

seekingalpha.com

 

[Svnla]

...I just think it's unfair that SVNLA selectively picked my comments (from P&N--so no, I know I didn't bring that shit in here), instead of the one where I politely suggested that the individual tenderly go fuck themselves. Talk about bias!

Are for you for real? You are now whining and bitching about "UNFAIR" and "BIAS"?

Let show everyone the REAL you. Folks, just from this single thread alone within a few minutes, this bozo has words of wisdom such as these...Is this how to debate honestly as a normal person?

You are illiterate.......


Sucks that you don't get it.....

......failure to read or learn anything

Selectively picked, eh? Go back to P+N and take this with you, your OWN words of wisdom. Don't try to hide your true identity. You are who you are. LOL @ you as "politely". Uh huh. Keep lying.

.... go fuck yourself.

I can see it now. your reply..."but...but..but....them fooooollllllllldddddddersssss...."

 

[FelixDeCat]

^ Come on guys..... lets keep this thread business related.... we dont need prolonged political/personal arguments here.

 

[Svnla]

^ Come on guys..... lets keep this thread business related.... we dont need prolonged political/personal arguments here.

I tried to keep this as business related (see my post 841 on page 34 as starting point). I posted a story about the lawsuit and how I feel RH should be guilty on a lot of things but not that guy's death. Not once, nada, zip, that I insulted or called anyone with nasty names (see how I debated with Tweaker and Squished as examples) and then the P+N bozo came in with insults and name callings. I am not going to lay down and take craps from anyone. Facts are facts.

 

[herm0016]

can we selectively ban people from a single thread?

 

[ultimatebob]

can we selectively ban people from a single thread?

Probably not from the forum software, no.

 

[Iron Woode]

Please keep this thread on topic and stop the bickering.

Iron Woode
Super Moderator

 

[Torn Mind]

Penny stock Rolls-Royce booming today. 120 percent gain as of now.