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Discussion ***Official*** 2021 Stock Market Thread

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ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
24,660
2,067
126
Ouch Tesla. Feel sorry for all those poor Yolo memesters.
You're kidding, right? I bought my TSLA back in March of 2020, and I'm still up over 1,300% at this point. Ponyo probably bought his original shares years before I did, so I can only imagine what his returns look like.

The price could drop another $500, and I'd still break even on it for this year.

The only real question is when we start buying more of it. If it drops below $800, perhaps?
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
27,111
795
126
You're kidding, right? I bought my TSLA back in March of 2020, and I'm still up over 1,300% at this point. Ponyo probably bought his original shares years before I did, so I can only imagine what his returns look like.

The price could drop another $500, and I'd still break even on it for this year.

The only real question is when we start buying more of it. If it drops below $800, perhaps?
Let's define terms. You are an investor, not a trader.

I'm willing to bet $100 you did not buy more than $10,000 in weekly call options just 7 days or less in advance hoping to triple, quadruple or more your money because "momentum n shit."

If you did, you are a Yolo memester.

If you bought Microsoft in 1990 and are still holding, you are not.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
27,111
795
126
Also, in true memester fashion, you will take what's left and buy $1200 call options expiring next week.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,521
2,698
126
I received nice haircut today. Probably lost close to $500k on paper between my various accounts. But you got to be able to take the good with the bad. It's not my worst beating as I've had much worse. I had over million dollar loss day before. Those hurt. I also had million dollars plus gain days too. But it's never fun seeing 6 or 7 figure paper loss. But the trick is to control your emotions. You're going to have ups and downs. It's part of the process.

 
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Dr. Detroit

Diamond Member
Sep 25, 2004
7,741
303
126
I wouldn't invest in Peloton on principle... they basically took a $200 exercise bike, slapped a $100 tablet on it, and then charged $1,500 for it PLUS a monthly subscription fee to rich yuppies and their trophy wives.

I hope that some of the other fitness brands like Schwinn makes a $350 knockoff product and puts them out of business.
I own a PTON Bike + and its a lot different than a Schwinn spin bike. I've also bought & sold PTON stock & profited on it and think the $50/share price is a fair valuation based on the rapid deceleration in growth. I suspect a dramatic decrease in advertising with it being much more targeted along with discounting the hardware with 3yr subscriptions.

To really understand PTON you'd need to have attended a few live spin classes at a studio like SoulCycle. One 45-minute SoulCycle class is $35-40, a boutique Spin Studio runs roughly $200/month for unlimited classes. For about $100/month you get a bike and unlimited membership not just for you, but your entire household.

Instructors are top notch, music is excellent and every genre is covered, 25+ classes are added every week just on Spin alone. They've added German and Spanish instructors as well.

ConsumerReports rated their Tread+ treadmill the best they ever tested - and its a first gen product! The Schwinn is a Daewoo, the Peloton is a Mercedes.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
27,111
795
126
I received nice haircut today. Probably lost close to $500k on paper between my various accounts. But you got to be able to take the good with the bad. It's not my worst beating as I've had much worse. I had over million dollar loss day before. Those hurt. I also had million dollars plus gain days too. But it's never fun seeing 6 or 7 figure paper loss. But the trick is to control your emotions. You're going to have ups and downs. It's part of the process.
Since we are manning up to losses, I took a gigantic one just yesterday. I was sitting on a very big profit (by my standards at least), and like an idiot I decided to become an "investor". All of a sudden, out of the f'kn' blue, the **$$ @#$ market makers slammed the #$@$ out of the stock and not only was my paper profit gone, but now I was down 49%, and the POS kept going even lower after hours.

I sold this morning on the first uptick. Turned out to be a good idea as the stock was still headed lower. I wont mention it here.

I was still licking my wounds today and was kind of despondent TBH.

I think it is good to know yourself. As I have stated over and over, I prefer to be a "trader" over an "investor". I simply do not have the patience to buy and hold shares or short puts over the long term.

As I mentioned earlier, I bought Tesla after the last quarter ER at roughly $650 and sold for a tiny profit. Had I held, I would have nearly doubled in 90 days. But again, I have a very low tolerance for pullbacks. So I get in and get out and thats about it.

Oh well, at least I am still up for the year.
 
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dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,543
489
96
Oy vey. My second cold shower within a week.

POSH collapsed after hours on weak guidance. I have Feb puts at $24 and got about $4000 for them so my cost basis on those potential shares is $20.

I guess I'll just leave them and if nothing improves by Feb I'll use them as a capital loss write off for next year. Hopefully the stock doesn't totally collapse. Maybe they'll have a better than expected holiday season.

I'm going to step back these next two months and let things shake out, maybe try to buy stuff back that's worth buying back. I've made decent money this year.
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
6,373
591
126
Whoa my chicas - take a look at spot gold. Mama mia.

6.2% y/y inflation - the highest since 1990.

But don't count on the fed to tighten in any significant way just yet.

I think I might try to cash in a few ounces (PR69 gold eagles) if this rally has legs.
 
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dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,543
489
96
Whoa my chicas - take a look at spot gold. Mama mia.

6.2% y/y inflation - the highest since 1990.

But don't count on the fed to tighten in any significant way just yet.
Nice. That's a bright spot for me.

I have 50 krugerrand I inherited from my parents tucked away in a safety deposit box.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
61,650
9,384
126
www.uovalor.com
Pretty sure Elon sold 20 million shares today.
It's great he kept his word! He literally based the decision off a Twitter poll lol. I do wonder what the legal ramifications are though, I know there's lot of weird laws when it comes to shares especially if you are a significant shareholder. Not sure if announcing a big cash in is considered against any laws or not.

Honestly a dip like this is good for everybody though, it means you can buy in at a low price. I'm kind of tempted myself though I can only really afford like 1 share and even that involves dipping into the credit line, so probably not a smart move lol. But it's almost guarantee to go back up.
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
6,373
591
126
To all you retail investors (like moi). I fully expect all of you to ignore this. I did and I really should have known better.

But study after study has shown that the retail crowd's greatest investing "skill" is to buy high and sell low.

The best investmets people ever made were the ones that quite literally had completely forgotten about.

Aside from that though, they also get f***ed up the ass by admin fees. So if you want to try going the "investment? What investment?" route, only invest in low fee whole market or very wide sector funds and ETFs.

Just think what a health care or tech sector etf or fund with a less than 1% "load" would have made for you by now.
 

RichieZ

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2000
6,531
26
91
I received nice haircut today. Probably lost close to $500k on paper between my various accounts. But you got to be able to take the good with the bad. It's not my worst beating as I've had much worse. I had over million dollar loss day before. Those hurt. I also had million dollars plus gain days too. But it's never fun seeing 6 or 7 figure paper loss. But the trick is to control your emotions. You're going to have ups and downs. It's part of the process.

It happens to the best of us, who cares though if your time horizon is long and you're playing with house money at this point.

Q tho: why do you use IB? The interface and service are so bad I closed mine, and with your account size you can pretty match margin rates anywhere. I'm at 1.05% (flat, not tiered unlike IBRK pro) at fidelity and it adjusts less often than IB. I was interested in trading crypto there due to lower fees and it actually tracking P&L vs coinbase being an "exchange" but it was just too painful. What am I missing?
 
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dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,543
489
96
The ground underneath me feels like it' getting slippery.

I'm not selling anything big anymore until I feel some sort of resolution. I bought back green puts worth about $15000 of stock today and I'm going to keep buying back as much as I can.
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,223
254
126
To all you retail investors (like moi). I fully expect all of you to ignore this. I did and I really should have known better.

But study after study has shown that the retail crowd's greatest investing "skill" is to buy high and sell low.

The best investmets people ever made were the ones that quite literally had completely forgotten about.

Aside from that though, they also get f***ed up the ass by admin fees. So if you want to try going the "investment? What investment?" route, only invest in low fee whole market or very wide sector funds and ETFs.

Just think what a health care or tech sector etf or fund with a less than 1% "load" would have made for you by now.
You are correct, but where is the fun in that :)
 
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KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,223
254
126
It's great he kept his word! He literally based the decision off a Twitter poll lol. I do wonder what the legal ramifications are though, I know there's lot of weird laws when it comes to shares especially if you are a significant shareholder. Not sure if announcing a big cash in is considered against any laws or not.

Honestly a dip like this is good for everybody though, it means you can buy in at a low price. I'm kind of tempted myself though I can only really afford like 1 share and even that involves dipping into the credit line, so probably not a smart move lol. But it's almost guarantee to go back up.
The twitter poll was more likely a gimmick, as he had a huge tax bill from stock options coming due and needed the money.

 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,521
2,698
126
It happens to the best of us, who cares though if your time horizon is long and you're playing with house money at this point.

Q tho: why do you use IB? The interface and service are so bad I closed mine, and with your account size you can pretty match margin rates anywhere. I'm at 1.05% (flat, not tiered unlike IBRK pro) at fidelity and it adjusts less often than IB. I was interested in trading crypto there due to lower fees and it actually tracking P&L vs coinbase being an "exchange" but it was just too painful. What am I missing?
Absolutely correct. I don't care too much about the daily swings. Nothing's changed other than the price. My thesis and conviction level remain the same. This is all short-term noise.

I use IB mostly out of laziness. I use IB desktop client and while the graphics and interface look like something out of 1980s stock terminal, it's pretty powerful interface that allows me to do pretty much anything. The only platform I've found remotely close in features is TD ThinkorSwim desktop platform.

I don't really use IB margin because they auto liquidate and they're the most aggressive at changing the margin requirements on a whim at first sign of market volatility. IB is brutal and ruthless when it comes to their risk management, and they will screw you in a heartbeat at the worst opportune time. So I've been considering switching but it's mainly inertia and laziness that keeps me at IB. I also have accounts at Charles Schwab, Vanguard, Fidelity, Wells Fargo, Robinhood, and TD Ameritrade.

One thing I like at IB is the ability to trade from 4am to 8pm. I don't trade 4am premarket often, but I've taken advantage of it couple of times. It's nice to have the option. I also like how IB provides physical digital security card+ for more secure account protection, especially for travel.

I have crypto trading enabled at IB but haven't used it. I use Coinbase and Robinhood for crypto. IB is not even really doing the crypto trading themselves and outsourcing it to some third party company. IB crypto offerings don't really appeal to me.
 

PlanetJosh

Golden Member
May 6, 2013
1,609
74
91
Veterans day delays trade settlements for one day so I can't buy what I wanted today in my JPM account. Unless it's for only the small amount remaining in settled cash. I sold GOOG on two days ago on Tuesday for a profit. So Google is going up at this moment and I'm missing out on the buy until tomorrow (.

I'm taking a break from riskier trades, too hard to gauge them for timing. So going back to the big tech names for a while not that all of them aren't risky.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
27,111
795
126
^ Smart move...

I make lots of money on tiny microcaps, but sometimes they come and bight you in the ass (as noted above).

Right now I have some SOFI. Been trading back and forth but I think I will hold them for the long term... about 30 mins or so. ;)
 
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Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
6,373
591
126
Yesterday it looked like the gold rally was going to be a bust but damn if we aren't almost back to the high we hit yesterday.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
27,111
795
126
Wow @ TTD!

I love trading The Trade Desk. I was going to buy 100 shares yesterday for giggles at $92, but passed to play other stocks.

Today it broke an all time high of $100! Easy $800 gain on 100 shares passed me buy.

Got in today for a quick flip. There was 99,999 shares for sale at 100 on LVL2 acting like a brick wall. Jumped in with 500 and it tore through like butter. Sold on the breakout.

Also traded some POSH on the short squeeze above $20.
 

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