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Discussion ***Official*** 2021 Stock Market Thread

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ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
18,621
2,075
126
Zen, you're getting me all excited, and I haven't even started my research into 23&Me. I don't follow that Kevin dude on Youtube. Never seen any of his videos even though that shit is promoted like crazy. The only Youtube channel I watch regularly is Tesla Daily with Rob Maurer. I share many of the same views as Rob and his Tesla content are excellent and keeps me in the loop of everything Tesla news.

yeah from what I've noticed, it seems like people play the speculation--announcement curve (a term I just now made up and probably makes no sense). If you buy in at $10 offer, across only a dozen or so SPACS, a decent number of them are going to see a huge positive swing within days of their announced acquisition. All of them seem to show that spike, and it's like clockwork. up or down, you can almost depend on a 30% upswing at some point across a majority percentage of your choices, right?

It just looks like stupid free money....
Yup. SPAC plays have this point been free money. Think of yourself as venture capitalist. If you divide up your money and invest 10% into the SPAC at the IPO before any announcement, you're going to make lot of money because some of the SPACs are going to return huge and be up like 1000-2000% once they announce who they're buying and merging with. And even if you did pick some duds and those SPACs don't end up going up much, the $10 /shr cash value gives you support so you don't end up losing much or any money. Even the shitty SPACs are going up 20-50% even if they're duds. I followed CCIV and thought about jumping in at $13.50 when I first heard the Lucid news. But I didn't because I'm a scared dummy and don't really believe in Lucid. Same with Quantumscape. I could've jumped in that really early in the low teens. I left lot of free money on the table last year while I saw people who turned tens of thousands of dollars into millions of dollars over at WSB.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
105,029
19,713
136
Lot of SPACs come with warrants as well. Warrants are basically like leap call options. It allows you to buy stock at certain price in the future. Many SPACs come with free warrants. So that's another plus. But SPACs are so hot right now most are trading way above the cash value. So if some of these SPACs don't buy and acquire the right company, the price is going to collapse. So I generally don't like buying SPACs until the deal is announced and I can see which company they're buying. But in this market, that's usually the wrong move because SPAC plays are so hot that if you wait, you're going to pay WAY up in price. But it won't always be like this once the bubble pops. But who knows when that will be.
Important thing to consider before I run for the day:

23&Me biggest competitor is Ancestry.com, of course. I don't really know much about Ancestry's genome horde (I think 23&Me has something like 70million + genomes? probably way more than anywhere else), but they are two different businesses:

23&Me is bioinformatics business, and Ancestry is geneology business. They offer to their customers some of the same SNP-calling analysis, but that is sort of a tack-on to compete with 23&Me. ...but that probably isn't that relevant, because the money is in the genomes that you hoard. The data. They are both equally valuable and depending on the diversity and quality of their genomes (how they were constructed is quite important), and so in the end--selling/licensing that data is the same.

Where these two companies diverge is the type of service that they can also sell. 23&Me has only ever been hiring bioinformaticians (a lot of them were hired out of the departments where I used to work, years ago. friends and such). These are people that sit at terminals all day, assembling genomes and running analysis on them with thousands and millions of different types of questions: they know what they are doing. Ancestry, as a company, isn't really interested in that beyond "Where do you come from??" So, I don't think they have accumulated the same stable of bioinformaticians--obviously they have them, but their business model has always been different....probably they mostly have data scientists that have long worked with them, and were self-taught bioinformatics to try and keep up and pivot. ...this is absolutely not the same quality of work (not to knock on such people; it's just qualitatively different).

I think where they can separate themselves as services to other companies is that 23&Me would be offering many different types of analysis packages for customers that want that (a lot of relevant companies aren't going to have their own bioinformaticians--data science (very similar tools in the end)--is not at all the same as bioinformatics. it's way too esoteric to easily jump between the two and do actual good work.

Basically: 23&Me has more potential diversity in revenue, probably quality and size of horde, and the expertise to offer all of these services at greater quality to companies that want it.
 
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Tweak155

Lifer
Sep 23, 2003
11,380
226
106
Zen, you're getting me all excited, and I haven't even started my research into 23&Me. I don't follow that Kevin dude on Youtube. Never seen any of his videos even though that shit is promoted like crazy. The only Youtube channel I watch regularly is Tesla Daily with Rob Maurer. I share many of the same views as Rob and his Tesla content are excellent and keeps me in the loop of everything Tesla news.


Yup. SPAC plays have this point been free money. Think of yourself as venture capitalist. If you divide up your money and invest 10% into the SPAC at the IPO before any announcement, you're going to make lot of money because some of the SPACs are going to return huge and be up like 1000-2000% once they announce who they're buying and merging with. And even if you did pick some duds and those SPACs don't end up going up much, the $10 /shr cash value gives you support so you don't end up losing much or any money. Even the shitty SPACs are going up 20-50% even if they're duds. I followed CCIV and thought about jumping in at $13.50 when I first heard the Lucid news. But I didn't because I'm a scared dummy and don't really believe in Lucid. Same with Quantumscape. I could've jumped in that really early in the low teens. I left lot of free money on the table last year while I saw people who turned tens of thousands of dollars into millions of dollars over at WSB.
What's worse? Not getting in at $13.50 on $CCIV or like me getting in mid $16's and out at $19's? /paperhandsforme
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
18,621
2,075
126
What's worse? Not getting in at $13.50 on $CCIV or like me getting in mid $16's and out at $19's? /paperhandsforme
profit > no profit. No shame in paper hands. Paper hands with profit is better than being bag holder and losing money.

Bought some VGAC because of you animals.
I picked up another 1,000 shares at $13.67. And sold 20 of the April 16 $12.50 puts for $1.25. And another 10 at $1.30. So currently holding 2,000 shares and option to pickup additional 3,000 shares if VGAC closes below $12.50 on April 16.

EDIT: Sold another 10 $12.50 puts at $1.40. Keep it coming.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
26,337
477
126
Nowhere to hide today. Weed down, Ev cos getting smashed, solar and oil down, crypto down taking miners with it.

Ughhh
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
18,621
2,075
126
Nowhere to hide today. Weed down, Ev cos getting smashed, solar and oil down, crypto down taking miners with it.

Ughhh
I don't know what market you're watching but nothing is getting smashed. I have lot of cash and shitload of open orders but very few are getting filled. No one is panic selling.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
26,337
477
126
I don't know what market you're watching but nothing is getting smashed. I have lot of cash and shitload of open orders but very few are getting filled. No one is panic selling.
Capture.JPG

Here the EV related stocks I watch. Sure its not a panic, but its a smash. Imagine if these were all green by the same amount? People would be hootin' and hollerin' and dancing in the street. :)

Anyway, I look for green and right now I dont see much.

What would you recommend today?
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,281
408
96
View attachment 39899

Here the EV related stocks I watch. Sure its not a panic, but its a smash. Imagine if these were all green by the same amount? People would be hootin' and hollerin' and dancing in the street. :)

Anyway, I look for green and right now I dont see much.

What would you recommend today?
It cost me like $3500 total to trade down a bunch of options today.

But I've been refining my strategy around "safety first" and I've made a lot so far this year. I have to stay disciplined.
 

Artorias

Golden Member
Feb 8, 2014
1,333
401
136
VGAC down 8% today. Wroth a punt if you got some fun money laying around.
 
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ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
18,621
2,075
126
I watched Kevin's video on 23andMe. That was pretty good numbers analysis he did. I agree with lot of his points. But I'm going to go with my man zinfamous and trust his scientific judgment about the value of the data this company is sitting on. I will just look at this as speculative venture capital play. I'm not going to bet huge because this area is outside my expertise but I like the story. So I'll throw some money at it and hold. Forget I even own it.

Sold another 10 April $12.50 puts for $1.50. So now on the hook for 50 puts or 5,000 shares to purchase if VGAC closes below $12.50 on April 16. That would put me at 7,000 shares which I will be comfortable owning as speculative investment.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
105,029
19,713
136
I watched Kevin's video on 23andMe. That was pretty good numbers analysis he did. I agree with lot of his points. But I'm going to go with my man zinfamous and trust his scientific judgment about the value of the data this company is sitting on. I will just look at this as speculative venture capital play. I'm not going to bet huge because this area is outside my expertise but I like the story. So I'll throw some money at it and hold. Forget I even own it.

Sold another 10 April $12.50 puts for $1.50. So now on the hook for 50 puts or 5,000 shares to purchase if VGAC closes below $12.50 on April 16. That would put me at 7,000 shares which I will be comfortable owning as speculative investment.
Yes I also agree with his numbers, but when I watch that, I think--that isn't the value of the company so it's maybe not that relevant.

HOWEVER! I need to add some things that I didn't fully think out this morning, and dawned on me while walking to the train earlier this morning and being pelted by ice shards falling from the sky all the while. --I tend to speak and post things way to quickly without thinking them all the way through....a lifelong struggle, lol. I blame this morning's quick outbursts on a euphoric high from caffeine shot and satisfying morning dump.

anyway, I need to expand on what I mentioned earlier about "quality," when it comes to genomes (and the "libraries," as we call them, that are created from the nucleic acids that are collected--e.g. DNA or RNA--and then sent off to be sequenced, then assembled into whatever purpose...whole genome, whole transcriptome, various other types of data sets for different purposes).

I don't really know the overall quality of what these companies collect right now, but if it is all coming from spit kits, it isn't going to be that great--meaning--they aren't going to make high quality genome assemblies by today's standards (they may not be able to make them, period; but it is true that what they can construct are well above the standards of say, 20 years ago when "the first human genome" was published. the quality there was pretty much garbage, and has been improved drastically.

There are several different types of sequencing technologies, each one of them proprietary, and generally used for specific purposes...what type of data you want, the quality you need. But...you don't really need "50 million individual genomes." What you need are a bunch of crappy, decent, high quality genomes that you can "stick together" to assemble one large high quality genome. Everyone has access to that sort of the thing.

What 23&Me has is tons of individual data, that is super useful for making population-wide analysis, when compared to a high quality reference genome....but that in itself isn't that sexy anymore. Genomes aren't all that sexy. Transcriptomes are sexy. Every cell in your body has the exact same DNA. The RNA, however, is different from cell to cell (kidney RNA is not liver RNA), and at different time points (say, during development) or in various conditions (Say, fighting a bastard disease at that moment), your RNA signal is going to be different. specifically, the messenger RNA (mRNA) and even really cool novel things that aren't super-well understand yet, like snRNA (small, noncoding), which is a big target in epigenetic studies these days.

Does 23&Me have access to this stuff? I don't think so, but they can? maybe? You need very high quality samples to put this stuff together but more importantly, you need more difficult-to-obtain tissue, and storage/shipping conditions to send them tissue to process. ...we all know about -80 C temperatures and dry ice for shipping now, which is the gold standard, but there are some nice stabilizing buffers that let you ship tissue samples for about a day or two at room temperature, for keeping RNA stable in these samples. This is expensive, though.


Anyway, for things to be super amazing and glorious like I think they will be, 23&Me needs to expand their testing and offer various other packages to their customers, that they would be willing to donate. (basically, blood is maybe the easiest from this perspective--good luck!--but also not great for RNA, IIRC).

Do you think their customers would be willing to donate brain or liver tissue? that would be awesome. Heart tissue would be even better....
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
18,621
2,075
126
I watched interview with Anne Wojcicki, the co-founder and CEO of 23andMe. I like to watch video interviews with founder/CEO because the way they talk, their expressions, and just general vibe can sometimes tell me if they're fraud or if they know what they're talking about. Kind of gives me quick glimpse into who they might be and their motives. I do like Anne. She gave me good positive first impression. Same way Elon did. It seemed like she's thinking longterm and is not in for the quick payday. And then I read her Wiki bio. This is smart lady previously married to Sergey Brin of Google and well connected. I like her background and experience and how she was healthcare analyst at investment firm before she became disillusioned with Wall St and decided to refocus her life. She doesn't seem fake which is good. So far so good.
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
105,029
19,713
136
I watched interview with Anne Wojcicki, the co-founder and CEO of 23andMe. I like to watch video interviews with founder/CEO because the way they talk, their expressions, and just general vibe can sometimes tell me if they're fraud or if they know what they're talking about. Kind of gives me quick glimpse into who they might be and their motives. I do like Anne. She gave me good positive first impression. Same way Elon did. It seemed like she's thinking longterm and is not in for the quick payday. And then I read her Wiki bio. This is smart lady previously married to Sergey Brin of Google and well connected. I like her background and experience and how she was healthcare analyst at investment firm before she became disillusioned with Wall St and decided to refocus her life. She doesn't seem fake which is good. So far so good.
yeah, the company was started with seed money as like, wedding or anniversary gift from Sergey Brin, lol. I remember when the company first became a thing.

I'm not a customer, btw. Never signed up for it, though I know plenty of friends and family who have, and as I mentioned, many colleagues that were recruited by them and went off to work for them back in the early days.

I'll probably always be skeptical of this type of business--not for personal data reasons, as I 100% believe in the efficacy of the value of such data and the anonymity (personal identification) which isn't a concern; I'm only concerned about what unscrupulous companies (like insurance and certain other comparable actuarial companies) can do with it, in terms of applying over-simplified gross miscalculations to wide swaths of populations based on generic values like where these people live, ages, ave. diet, etc. It can be sketchy...but also very useful, beneficial, and in the end, of course crucial for the value of the company selling the data.

again, the big play is the value to the medical industry and their ability to monetize that through federal/state regulations that exist now or don't yet exist. It's tricky.



But I went ahead and picked up 130 shares VGAC @ $13.24. Maybe more in the coming months, depending on things and my IRA contributions before tax filing (I "owe myself" another $2k or so....so it's probably going into more pot--APHA--or VGAC. I consider it all medicine, lol). If I had ponyo money I would have picked up more.
 
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IEC

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Jun 10, 2004
13,994
3,706
136
Sold a bunch of CSPs and bought a bunch of LEAPs for PLTR.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
18,621
2,075
126
Sold a bunch of CSPs and bought a bunch of LEAPs for PLTR.
Sold bunch of PLTR CSP as well. Holding off on shares and LEAPs for now to let the stock settle down a bit since insider lockup expired today. I still have 1,000 shares I picked up at IPO.
 
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brianmanahan

Lifer
Sep 2, 2006
20,740
2,621
126
profit > no profit. No shame in paper hands.
this is the reasoning that's tempting me to sell my crypto at 4x the original price

but it's a small amount and i already got more out than i paid, so maybe i'll hold out for 10 years and see what happens
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,281
408
96
Sold a bunch of CSPs and bought a bunch of LEAPs for PLTR.
Believe it or not - I sold PLTR puts as well. I was following PLTR to see how it would react to the lockup being over and when I saw it hit resistance at $25 I figured it would be a decent bet. I ended up spending around $5000 today migrating some of my options to safer positions so I was looking for anything decent to offset that.

I ended up selling 20s for Apr 1.
 

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