Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[uclaLabrat]

I think biotech and drug stocks might do well, and maybe even those trying to discover a way to treat / help those with Alzheimer's:

View attachment 33314

Biogen's stock was halted on Friday pending an advisory panel's opinion on its candidate to treat Alzheimers. The FDA advisory panel voted late Friday against Biogen's (BIIB) drug to treat Alzheimers. A FDA decision is expected in March 2021 and they may or may not take the panel's reccomendation.

Sounds like that adcom was a complete kick in the nuts. Biogen's drug aint getting approved at this point.

 

[dasherHampton]

Stock trading is always a game of patience. Making entry at the right time and then without much greed, exiting the stock at near high can be profitable. Though, options trading is little different and more of tactical analysis. You may want to have a look here:
beststockstrategy.com.

Buy low and sell high? Seems like a good plan.

edit - my bad for the ninja reply. Just delete my post if you want.

 

[Brainonska511]

Sounds like that adcom was a complete kick in the nuts. Biogen's drug aint getting approved at this point.

Maybe I'm mistaken, but didn't Biogen try to do some shady reanalysis of 2 separate failed trials? If I was on that advisory committee, I'd tell them to take a hike too and to come back only after they've run a new trial based on the hypothesis they generated from the reanalysis. They shouldn't be using subgroup analyses as primary data for submission.

And on that note, I leave this fun paper from a few years ago discussing said issue of subgroup analyses: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5777583/

 

[dasherHampton]

Made a big bet on Pfizer.

We'll see how this turns out.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Crazy whipsaw markets, all over the place.

UP big one week
DOWN big one week
UP big one week
DOWN big one week

Good way to get ruined if you are trying to guess the next move.

 

[dasherHampton]

Just don't go into margin and you'll probably be fine if you buy stocks that have a decent history. In the long run, at least.

 

[zinfamous]

wut? The market dropped when Trump won. Maybe you're referring to the recovery when everyone said "Oh, nevermind - it looks like he will be friendly to business".

No it didn't. It cratered by like 700 points for a few minutes as the returns came in, then recovered and actually opened something like 300 points up from the previous close.

So, it bumped. How do you not recall that?

 

[zinfamous]

What did I miss this week with xpeng? 30% jump is nothing to sneeze at...

You missed the ponyo Kool-AID some ~month ago when they went public. I didn't and decided to bet on that crazy dude. ....but I wish I had actual ponyo money to put into it then, or I would have been way happier.

 

[woodman1999]

You missed the ponyo Kool-AID some ~month ago when they went public. I didn't and decided to bet on that crazy dude. ....but I wish I had actual ponyo money to put into it then, or I would have been way happier.

I actually did get into it, though I am sure not at ponyo's level. Hadn't look since I bought and chose the day it popped to have a glance. Just wondering if there had been any extenuating news to cause the jump.

 

[zinfamous]

I actually did get into it, though I am sure not at ponyo's level. Hadn't look since I bought and chose the day it popped to have a glance. Just wondering if there had been any extenuating news to cause the jump.

Oh yeah, I have no idea either because I also completely forgot about them, until ponyo mentioned it here last week, lol.

 

[uclaLabrat]

Maybe I'm mistaken, but didn't Biogen try to do some shady reanalysis of 2 separate failed trials? If I was on that advisory committee, I'd tell them to take a hike too and to come back only after they've run a new trial based on the hypothesis they generated from the reanalysis. They shouldn't be using subgroup analyses as primary data for submission.

And on that note, I leave this fun paper from a few years ago discussing said issue of subgroup analyses: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5777583/

Thats the one as far as I know it. Yeah. Hard to see how they regroup.

Hats off to them, alzheimers is an incredibly difficult indication from everything I've read (not much)

 

[ponyo]

Why did Xpeng pop? FOMO. Rising tide lifts all boats and Nio has been on a tear recently. Daily trading volume on NIO has been insane. Almost everyday I would see it on the NYSE most active and traded list. So it's natural for traders to look at other Chinese EV hoping for similar moves to NIO. And both NIO and Xpeng reported better than expected vehicle deliveries and got couple of price target upgrades from analysts. But really it comes to FOMO. Everyone wants to find the next Tesla before it becomes Tesla.

Xpeng reports their earnings I think this Thursday. Xpeng will report a loss. In fact, expect Xpeng and Nio to keep reporting massive losses for years to come. Market earnings reaction is always crap shoot so XPEV stock price could crash, rocket up, or not move much after earnings. The safe play is to sell before earnings if you're scared.

Xpeng has Youtube page. Youtube is awesome research tool. Here's video on Xpeng factory. Xpeng has their own factory. Nio doesn't. Xpeng builds their own cars. Nio doesn't. Xpeng has their own Supercharger network. Nio doesn't. Xpeng has better self-driving software. Some say it's better than Tesla. Xpeng is going to be a force in the future.

 

[ponyo]

Xpeng Xpilot 3.0. Basically Xpeng copy of Tesla Autopilot software. Couple of ex-Tesla employees stole old version of Tesla Autopilot source code and took it to Xpeng.

People say Nio is Tesla of China but it's really Xpeng. But the real Tesla of China is Tesla.

 

[ponyo]

Xpeng out with their first earnings as public company this morning before the market open. Of course they reported a loss but their gross margin was positive which was nice surprise. Xpeng shares are on fire and currently up over 20% for the day. Nio is rocketing along with Xpeng and closing on $50. Nio reports next week I think.

While I regret only buying 2,500 shares of XPEV, I'm happy I didn't sell any covered calls against my shares. I was tempted because the call options were expensive but I wanted to let Xpeng run, and I also didn't want potential tax liability if those shares had to be sold. My capital gains tax bill for this year is already insane, and I don't really want to lose another ~50% to the IRS and state of GA. I'm trying to defer and avoid taking any major additional gains this year and only take losses this year if I can. Good problem to have but taxes really suck.

 

[zinfamous]

Xpeng out with their first earnings as public company this morning before the market open. Of course they reported a loss but their gross margin was positive which was nice surprise. Xpeng shares are on fire and currently up over 20% for the day. Nio is rocketing along with Xpeng and closing on $50. Nio reports next week I think.

While I regret only buying 2,500 shares of XPEV, I'm happy I didn't sell any covered calls against my shares. I was tempted because the call options were expensive but I wanted to let Xpeng run, and I also didn't want potential tax liability if those shares had to be sold. My capital gains tax bill for this year is already insane, and I don't really want to lose another ~50% to the IRS and state of GA. I'm trying to defer and avoid taking any major additional gains this year and only take losses this year if I can. Good problem to have but taxes really suck.

Next time you rub your crystal ball(s) and get some info, could you kindly let me know when you think Xpeng might crater again? I'd like to re-up, but also start saving some money in order to do so.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Going to be an interesting next 2 months.....

While Biden is around the corner - whom is sure to be ready to help the market as much as possible....

Until then we have a Trump admin that will no longer care for public appeal - and....


To top it off - all new highs of COVID breakouts... Winter to maybe exacerbate it with flu breakouts likely as well.... Something tells me Q4 results aren't going to be what they normally are heh...

 

[FelixDeCat]

Xpeng overvalued. Sell.

Plantir drops the ball for earnings. Stock getting slammed. Ouch!

 

[FelixDeCat]

Going to be an interesting next 2 months.....

While Biden is around the corner - whom is sure to be ready to help the market as much as possible....

Until then we have a Trump admin that will no longer care for public appeal - and....


To top it off - all new highs of COVID breakouts... Winter to maybe exacerbate it with flu breakouts likely as well.... Something tells me Q4 results aren't going to be what they normally are heh...

We are weary of covid news. Not only that we have found that the majority of the world can still function despite it.

 

[IEC]

More lockdown talk spooking the markets today.

 

[ponyo]

Xpeng overvalued. Sell.

Plantir drops the ball for earnings. Stock getting slammed. Ouch!

Damn, you make so compelling argument. I should totally listen to you. Not!

I have a simple rule. I don't take financial advice from poor people. They're poor for a reason.

Xpeng reminds me so much of Tesla. Xpeng is $32 billion. Nio is $65 billion. I much rather own Xpeng than Nio. Xpeng is already going to build second factory in China. Nio is still working on building their first factory and don't even make their own cars. Elon Musk has said vehicle mass production is like 100 times harder than simply building working prototype. Xpeng has already proven they can build their own factory and cars from ground up. Nio hasn't. In order to compete with Tesla, you have to be super vertically integrated and have software and engineering DNA. Xpeng has it. I'm not sure about Nio. So I'm going to keep Xpeng, thank you very much. I think Xpeng can be $100-$200 billion company by 2025.

I could sell 25 of the Oct 15, 2021 $45 XPEV calls and collect $17.35 premium each or $43,375 if I thought XPEV wasn't going higher than $45 by next October. In fact, selling 25 of the calls would basically lower my XPEV share cost basis to below $0 since I already made another $5,000 from April $17.50 XPEV puts I sold. So by selling Oct 15 calls, I would play with completely free house money on my 2,500 XPEV shares. Yet I won't do it because I think XPEV is headed higher than $63 by October next year. I think XPEV could hit that this year.

And as for Palantir dropping the ball on earnings and stock getting slammed, I'm not seeing what you're seeing. That was good earning report by Palantir. You need to learn how to read earnings report. And PLTR stock is flat after-hours which is opposite of getting slammed. I bought 1,000 shares of the evil company at $9.86 and sold Nov 20 $15 calls and $7.50 puts so I want to see PLTR below $15 until after November 20th. I'm making money on PLTR stock, calls, and puts. That's triple crown win.

 

[zinfamous]

Xpeng overvalued. Sell.

I will buy them! I give you 18 dolla per share!

 

[zinfamous]

We are weary of covid news. Not only that we have found that the majority of the world can still function despite it.

I mean, if you call dying a whole lot "functioning"....

Yes, the majority of the world can function with it. Observably, and inarguably, however, WE can not. Because we are fucking stupid. Had we done the needful back in March, like all the brainless idiots were told to do, we wouldn't be in this bullshit right now, but here we are.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Damn, you make so compelling argument. I should totally listen to you. Not!

I have a simple rule. I don't take financial advice from poor people. They're poor for a reason.

Xpeng reminds me so much of Tesla. Xpeng is $32 billion. Nio is $65 billion. I much rather own Xpeng than Nio. Xpeng is already going to build second factory in China. Nio is still working on building their first factory and don't even make their own cars. Elon Musk has said vehicle mass production is like 100 times harder than simply building working prototype. Xpeng has already proven they can build their own factory and cars from ground up. Nio hasn't. In order to compete with Tesla, you have to be super vertically integrated and have software and engineering DNA. Xpeng has it. I'm not sure about Nio. So I'm going to keep Xpeng, thank you very much. I think Xpeng can be $100-$200 billion company by 2025.

I could sell 25 of the Oct 15, 2021 $45 XPEV calls and collect $17.35 premium each or $43,375 if I thought XPEV wasn't going higher than $45 by next October. In fact, selling 25 of the calls would basically lower my XPEV share cost basis to below $0 since I already made another $5,000 from April $17.50 XPEV puts I sold. So by selling Oct 15 calls, I would play with completely free house money on my 2,500 XPEV shares. Yet I won't do it because I think XPEV is headed higher than $63 by October next year. I think XPEV could hit that this year.

And as for Palantir dropping the ball on earnings and stock getting slammed, I'm not seeing what you're seeing. That was good earning report by Palantir. You need to learn how to read earnings report. And PLTR stock is flat after-hours which is opposite of getting slammed. I bought 1,000 shares of the evil company at $9.86 and sold Nov 20 $15 calls and $7.50 puts so I want to see PLTR below $15 until after November 20th. I'm making money on PLTR stock, calls, and puts. That's triple crown win.

Whatever.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I will buy them! I give you 18 dolla per share!

Throw in an egg roll with some duck sauce and you have a deal.

Seriously tho - did you buy some shares? You can hold them to kingdom come if you wish. I just think NIO and Xpeng have tremendous gains to absorb. No doubt the Robinhooders have put their lief savings in call options and are bragging to anyone who will listen..

 

[FelixDeCat]

I mean, if you call dying a whole lot "functioning"....

Yes, the majority of the world can function with it.

Im glad we agree. The survivors have no choice but to adapt, and theyve done a bang up job. Life will run its course and only the strongest will survive financially either through adaptation or changing job roles.

We may never go back to the way we were despite peoples desire to do so. Its sad if you ask me, but what choice do survivors have? And government checks only delay the inevitable - bankruptcy. We cant buy our way out of this.

But the government wont listen to me. They will continue to dilute existing currency holders into oblivion like they always have no matter who is in office.