Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[ponyo]

Hah, I came to post about Gamestop. They announce they are adopting Microsoft 365, and the stock skyrockets?

Yeah I just read the terms of the deal. It's basically GameStop agreeing to use Microsoft 365. Lol. But I could see how the algos thought there was some kind of meaningful joint deal. The computer algos just read the key words in the headlines and body text. GME is so heavily shorted that all it takes is one person in the crowded room to scream FIRE or BOMB and all hell will break loose as people scramble for the exit. People will literally get trampled to death on the mad rush to cover. This is why it's so dangerous to short heavily shorted stock. Not only are you paying stupid high borrow fee, you're at extreme risk of massive short squeeze. Don't get me wrong. GameStop is shit and ultimately going to $0 like Blockbuster Videos. But not before it takes some dumb shorts out.

 

[ponyo]

Meh that might be one approach to take but it doesn't work for everyone. You can't site one example like this and then write off diversification for everyone. You could even have a hundred examples like this and it still wouldn't justify such a broad stance like yours. Not everyone has the knowledge, willingness, cash up front, time, or stomach for individual trading.

That's just the honest to Gods truth and for those millions and millions of people, taking the slow and steady approach just works better. I will say though that guy nailed it and made bank off his bet on GS.

You're correct for the average person, diversification is the way to go. It's the proven safe method. You'll be average and get your average return. Which is good enough for most people.

But I don't want to be average. I want to hit home run or strike out trying. If I strike out, I want to go back up to plate and try to hit home run again. And keep trying until I hit that home run. You can hit singles and score lot of runs too but I'm looking for the grand slam to win the game. Just different mentality.

 

[Tweak155]

I glanced at the link. I dont necessarily see anything fishy. A lot of websites track unusual option activity and publish the information.

I've seen headlines like this before but most option bets, no matter how crazy, dont payoff. I remember about 10 years ago someone bought a ton of call options in Eastman Kodak about nine months before they filed for bankrputcy. Everyone scratched their heads. It was obvious EK was toast and sure enough they went belly up in 2012. People were speculating on the value of the IP, figuring it was worth more than the market cap and would save them from Chap 11.

It did not.

If you recall, I've been a novice student of personal and corporate bankruptcies. As it turns out, you CANNOT sell major assets prior to filing BR as you could be sued for fraudulent transfer if all debt holders do not agree, and normally they want 100% on the dollar plus interest.

It was just a "lucky" bet that MS and GS teamed up prior to January.


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The timing and lack of real reasoning is the only thing that really seemed a little off. If you read that guy's Reddit section he said he runs, he says his ideas just "come into his mind". He said they just interrupt whatever he's doing at the time. Doesn't really site anything regarding due diligence or research, but that doesn't mean he isn't doing it.

Either way, good for everyone that got in. I tried playing GME today with all the volatility, but I didn't do all that well... came out green at least, but as the day went on I clearly missed the best opportunities lol.

 

[Svnla]

I hope none of you are using Robinhood. If you are, better watch your account balance.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[Tweak155]

I hope none of you are using Robinhood. If you are, better watch your account balance.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Don't use RH and I'm not necessarily against them... but RH claims it was a compromise on the users systems and not theirs. Without more details, hard to know who is to blame. But definitely one story to follow, it would not surprise me if it was RH given the issues they've had in the past.

 

[dasherHampton]

I agree that obviously there's other info missing.

The article seems to indicate that the first user mentioned knew fraudulent the withdrawals were pending. I don't use RH but I googled and it clearly states you can cancel pending transactions in the app.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Irrational market rally

 

[KB]

I hope none of you are using Robinhood. If you are, better watch your account balance.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

This is why you don't reuse passwords. One site gets compromised and hackers now have all your passwords for all of the sites. One of the people reported having a unique password, but that is unconfirmed.

One thing that is strange is that Robinhood allows transfers using another service called revolut. I wouldn't trust any broker that allowed easy online transfers to other accounts other than the originating checking account.

 

[dasherHampton]

Well, I finally did it. Bought back all of the Dec BAC puts for $280. I probably didn't need to but now that options buying power is opened up again.

I made out like a banshee on that BAC bet.

 

[FelixDeCat]

As I posted earlier on this thread, I gave daily and weekly trading patterns that usually happen. Today was Monday which is usually an up day. This morning the QQQ's opened strong at $291 (Monday weekly pattern), and fell back $1 to 290 within the first 30 mins of trading (profit taking).

At that time the weekly QQQ $293 calls were $1.85, and I was toying with the idea of a YOLO trade - QQQ 293 contracts for $1.85. Being that the tech market opened pretty strong despite dead stimulus talks I was very unsure about the trade so I backed out. The hourly pattern says that by 9:30AM CST (market open 1 hour) you almost always get the first strong counter trade to the open so I thought it would pull back more. I had no idea we would have a monster short covering rally on an otherwise "bad news" day.

Too bad I didn't go for it. Those 50 contracts for $1.85 at 9:00AM CST hit an intraday high today of $6.55 each just a few hours later..

A pullback is what is expected after a big open not a "rip your face off" rally that lasts all day. You can see why I was too scared to go through with a YOLO bet. Not to mention, I hate losing money.

Tuesdays are usually pullback days. How much remains to be seen. It might get bought, it might not.

 

[dasherHampton]

Now I have to sweat the TGNA 11 puts a little. They expire on Friday.

Not too long ago it was a non-issue, with TGNA being close to $13. But I'm not going to worry too much. The account I sold them on would go about $15000 into margin if they get exercised. That's only about $120 a month, so not a big deal. And I'm pretty sure I can make good money selling TGNA calls.

 

[ponyo]

lol. I just saw Elon tweet Tesla is changing Model S price to $69,420 tonight. Tesla cut Model S price from $74,990 to $71,990 last night. That was $3,000 discount. He's now going to cut another $2,570 after one day to hit the magical $69,420 number. GOAT.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1316454051693895680

 

[RearAdmiral]

lol. I just saw Elon tweet Tesla is changing Model S price to $69,420 tonight. Tesla cut Model S price from $74,990 to $71,990 last night. That was $3,000 discount. He's now going to cut another $2,570 after one day to hit the magical $69,420 number. GOAT.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1316454051693895680

Nice, almost down to 1/2 of what my house cost lol.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Nice, almost down to 1/2 of what my house cost lol.

I can tell you now, I will never pay $70k for a car. The depreciation was bad enough on a car I bought last year for $21k, since they redesigned it again for 2021. I like the car and I owe less than the trade in value, but the retail / wholesale values are so far apart its absurd.

When I started over 30 years ago, I was very shrewd. I would buy good used cars cheap enough that I could use them as a daily driver for a while, fix them up a little and sell them for what I paid or more. Things went downhill when I was no longer interested in value and started buying cars for show. In 1991 I paid $8,000 cash for a 7 year old Porsche. It needed a lot of work and I got it to looking really nice with a new paint job, etc. It looked brand new. I got compliments and "thumbs up" all the time. But fame is fleeting and a bad investment long term.

The car was a money pit and I took a bath when I got rid of it because it constantly needed items. The irony is the original MSRP of the Porsche in 1984 was $25,000 or about $62,000 in today's money. Makes the Model S look like a bargain.

 

[KB]

lol. I just saw Elon tweet Tesla is changing Model S price to $69,420 tonight. Tesla cut Model S price from $74,990 to $71,990 last night. That was $3,000 discount. He's now going to cut another $2,570 after one day to hit the magical $69,420 number. GOAT.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1316454051693895680

Isn't it a bad thing when a company has to cut prices? It means there is competition, which means Tesla's moat is shrinking. Unless they can balance that with cost-reductions and higher sales, it means less revenue.

 

[ponyo]

Isn't it a bad thing when a company has to cut prices? It means there is competition, which means Tesla's moat is shrinking. Unless they can balance that with cost-reductions and higher sales, it means less revenue.

No, Tesla is on a mission. Tesla will keep cutting prices to achieve their mission. Every time Tesla has cut prices, bears have said cited lack of demand. And bears have been wrong time and time again. Tesla is not demand constrained. Tesla is supply constrained. They can't make cars fast enough.

Tesla goal is to grow 40-50% YoY for the next 10 years. They want to sell 20 million vehicles a year in 2030. In order to due that, prices for Tesla cars have to come way down. Tesla competition right now aren't other EV makers. Tesla real competition are ICE vehicles. It's not good enough Tesla has superior vehicles to ICE. Tesla needs to be cheaper than ICE. And that's what Tesla is working towards. Tesla's moat is increasing rapidly, not shrinking. Tesla moat is their pace of innovation and always has been. Tesla pace of innovation is accelerating rapidly, not decelerating.

You need to watch Tesla battery day presentation. It pretty much outlines what Tesla is going to do for the next 5-10 years. You're talking massive cost reduction in batteries, way better battery and vehicle production technologies, and crazy factories that's going to pump out 2 million plus vehicles a year at each factories along with necessary batteries. Tesla is going to fundamentally change how EVs are manufactured by integrating batteries directly into the vehicle frame and using giant casting machines to make the front and rear of the vehicles in one piece. Tesla ambition is so grand that it blows my mind. The only company I see with the same level of ambition is SpaceX which is also run by Elon Musk.

It doesn't matter what I tell you guys right now. You'll see what you want to see. But by 2025 and 2030, it will be impossible not to see what Tesla has accomplished because Tesla will have won.

Last night, Tesla increased ranges on Model 3 by 5-10% depending on the model. They also increased the performance. Same with Model X and Y and Model S Performance as well. They also added couple other features like power trunk to the Model 3 and most likely heat pump although that hasn't been verified.

Model S and X sales are not that really important to Tesla anymore. Model 3 and Y are the future. Which is why Elon can cut prices on Model S and not have it impact Tesla bottom line that much. Elon cut the prices on the Model S in response to Lucid Air pricing their base model at $77,400 before $7,500 tax incentives. So base model Lucid Air will be $69,900 for most buyers. Lucid won't produce this car until 2022. So Tesla didn't have to cut the price of Model S yet. But Elon wanted to send a message to Lucid and their CEO, Peter Rawlinson. Elon doesn't like Rawlinson. Peter Rawlinson once worked at Tesla and worked on the Model S project. Elon claims Rawlinson left Tesla when things were the most difficult on the Model S project and abandoned the team. So Elon has a grudge and you don't want to give Elon any extra motivation.

 

[FelixDeCat]

And speaking of cars......


Hertz gets DIP financing so the stock rallies 150%. I think that is rather stupid. DIP financing means they borrowed another $1,650,000,000 in 1st lien priority financing that supersedes all other debt and equity. So they go deeper in debt as they liquidate.

Does that make the company 150% more valuable today? If you assume they can dispose of all cars (the new/used car markets are very strong right now), keep creditors at bay until they operate profitably again with newly issued equity to payoff debtholders including the new DIP loan. Seems like a very long shot existing shareholders get a dime.

What I want to know is how they have staved off deslisting for so long now.

 

[Captante]

I can tell you now, I will never pay $70k for a car. The depreciation was bad enough on a car I bought last year for $21k, since they redesigned again it for 2021. I like the car and I owe less than the trade in value, but the retail / wholesale values are so far apart its absurd.

When I started over 30 years ago, I was very shrewd. I would buy good used cars cheap enough that I could use them as a daily driver for a while, fix them up a little and sell them for what I paid or more. Things went downhill when I was no longer interested in value and started buying cars for show. In 1991 I paid $8,000 cash for a 7 year old Porsche. It needed a lot of work and I got it to looking really nice with a new paint job, etc. It looked brand new. I got compliments and "thumbs up" all the time. But fame is fleeting and a bad investment long term.

The car was a money pit and I took a bath when I got rid of it because it constantly needed items. The irony is the original MSRP of the Porsche in 1984 was $25,000 or about $62,000 in today's money. Makes the Model S look like a bargain.

True of any car really ... that little bump you feel when exiting the dealers parking lot for the first time in your new ride is the sound of 30% of its value evaporating instantly.

Bottom line is that most cars (that are not Ferrari's) are an extremely poor investment.

 

[dasherHampton]

TGNA never really threatened $11.

I guess they had a really good financial report a few days ago. I might go ahead and throw down some more TGNA puts on Monday.

 

[FelixDeCat]

GM ready to send 1000HP, 350 mile range $80,000 Hummer Electric Truck to Dealerships in Fall 2021:

https://finance.yahoo.com/2022-gmc-hummer-1000-hp-000000681.html

The 2022 GMC Hummer EV marks the return of the Hummer brand. True to form, it's a massive, off-road-focused monolith with blocky features and an intimidating presence. But now it's all-electric, packs 1000 hp, and sprints to 60 in about 3 seconds in Edition 1 guise.

Don't think it's gone soft, though. GMC stresses that the guiding principle of the program was to make the most capable off-road truck ever. To that end, the Hummer rides on 35-inch tires and has a massively adjustable air suspension. So if the standard 10.1 inches of ground clearance isn't enough, an available "Extract Mode" jacks that up to 15.9 inches. That'll get you through two entire feet of standing water and allow you to scale 18-inch verticals, truly absurd stats. For reference, a Wrangler Rubicon has 10.8 inches of ground clearance and the upcoming Bronco with Sasquatch Package has 11.6 inches of daylight below its belly.

Added feature - sideways driving "Crab Mode":

https://finance.yahoo.com/gmc-hummer-evs-diagonal-driving-003100514.html

The Hummer EV can turn its rear wheels 10 degrees in either direction. When the rears are in phase with the fronts at low speed the truck can crab-walk out of trouble. Or at least that’s the aim. It can't drive sideways, of course, but it can move diagonally while still pointed straight ahead. Two underbody-mounted cameras (one forward facing and one rearward) will help you keep an eye on what's down below. And yes, the underbody cameras will have washers to keep the view clear. Expect to see plenty of videos of Hummers running diagonally over and around stuff by around this time next year.

 

[ponyo]

Pretty much confirms how far behind GM is to Tesla when it comes to EV. GMC Hummer EV truck will start at $112,595 and only have 350 mile range. Meanwhile, Tesla Cybertruck tri-motor will start at $69,900 and have 500 mile range. And GM still can't do OTA updates to their vehicles. Tesla had that tech since 2012.

In 2024, GM is supposed to have the cheapest Hummer EV truck available starting at $79,995 with 250 mile range. Meanwhile Tesla will already have cheapest Cybertruck starting at $39,900 with 250 mile range. Half price of Hummer EV with better EV techs. This is why I keep saying it's no contest and Tesla lead is increasing and not decreasing. Tesla is relentless in their pace of innovation and GM and others are screwed.

Tesla started their beta rollout of their FSD rewrite last night. Mass rollout should happen before end of the year provided it's safe to do so.

 

[ponyo]

So far the only legacy auto company with hope of competing with Tesla is Volkswagen. ID3 is receiving good reviews and is priced competitively. Other than VW, no legacy automakers seem to have a clue. Tesla is dominating EV market so much in South Korea that the government will likely change government subsidy to exclude Tesla so they can protect Hyundai and Kia. Tesla made up like 75% of all EV sales in South Korea this year. Total domination by Tesla and not surprising.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I can tell you now, I will never pay $70k for a car. The depreciation was bad enough on a car I bought last year for $21k, since they redesigned it again for 2021. I like the car and I owe less than the trade in value, but the retail / wholesale values are so far apart its absurd.

When I started over 30 years ago, I was very shrewd. I would buy good used cars cheap enough that I could use them as a daily driver for a while, fix them up a little and sell them for what I paid or more. Things went downhill when I was no longer interested in value and started buying cars for show. In 1991 I paid $8,000 cash for a 7 year old Porsche. It needed a lot of work and I got it to looking really nice with a new paint job, etc. It looked brand new. I got compliments and "thumbs up" all the time. But fame is fleeting and a bad investment long term.

The car was a money pit and I took a bath when I got rid of it because it constantly needed items. The irony is the original MSRP of the Porsche in 1984 was $25,000 or about $62,000 in today's money. Makes the Model S look like a bargain.

I thought I would never buy an expensive car more than $20k... ended up buying a RAV4 Prime for $50k lol.

Now given, it has its benefits: $10k in tax credits, brings it down to $40k.

But the retained value of these fucking things is just so high.


Originally I was looking at 3-5 year old used ones - certified or private selling. The prices were just so high that It wasn't worth it. I would rather have it new and get the extra 3-5 years of warranty than the miniscule amount of knock on the price.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

GM ready to send 1000HP, 350 mile range $80,000 Hummer Electric Truck to Dealerships in Fall 2021:

https://finance.yahoo.com/2022-gmc-hummer-1000-hp-000000681.html

The 2022 GMC Hummer EV marks the return of the Hummer brand. True to form, it's a massive, off-road-focused monolith with blocky features and an intimidating presence. But now it's all-electric, packs 1000 hp, and sprints to 60 in about 3 seconds in Edition 1 guise.

Don't think it's gone soft, though. GMC stresses that the guiding principle of the program was to make the most capable off-road truck ever. To that end, the Hummer rides on 35-inch tires and has a massively adjustable air suspension. So if the standard 10.1 inches of ground clearance isn't enough, an available "Extract Mode" jacks that up to 15.9 inches. That'll get you through two entire feet of standing water and allow you to scale 18-inch verticals, truly absurd stats. For reference, a Wrangler Rubicon has 10.8 inches of ground clearance and the upcoming Bronco with Sasquatch Package has 11.6 inches of daylight below its belly.

Added feature - sideways driving "Crab Mode":

https://finance.yahoo.com/gmc-hummer-evs-diagonal-driving-003100514.html

The Hummer EV can turn its rear wheels 10 degrees in either direction. When the rears are in phase with the fronts at low speed the truck can crab-walk out of trouble. Or at least that’s the aim. It can't drive sideways, of course, but it can move diagonally while still pointed straight ahead. Two underbody-mounted cameras (one forward facing and one rearward) will help you keep an eye on what's down below. And yes, the underbody cameras will have washers to keep the view clear. Expect to see plenty of videos of Hummers running diagonally over and around stuff by around this time next year.

Because when I think of Hummer owners... I think of someone that is environmentally conscious.

And folks wonder why Ford/GM are completely retarded.

 

[zinfamous]

Pretty much confirms how far behind GM is to Tesla when it comes to EV. GMC Hummer EV truck will start at $112,595 and only have 350 mile range. Meanwhile, Tesla Cybertruck tri-motor will start at $69,900 and have 500 mile range. And GM still can't do OTA updates to their vehicles. Tesla had that tech since 2012.

In 2024, GM is supposed to have the cheapest Hummer EV truck available starting at $79,995 with 250 mile range. Meanwhile Tesla will already have cheapest Cybertruck starting at $39,900 with 250 mile range. Half price of Hummer EV with better EV techs. This is why I keep saying it's no contest and Tesla lead is increasing and not decreasing. Tesla is relentless in their pace of innovation and GM and others are screwed.

Tesla started their beta rollout of their FSD rewrite last night. Mass rollout should happen before end of the year provided it's safe to do so.

I mean, I'll believe a $70k cyber truck exists when it can actually be sold for that. Same thing with the "$35k Model 3."Besides, they are still 2022, 2023, right?

Other than that, I agree.