Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[s0me0nesmind1]

I watched this one a while ago now. It's overly long IMO but he has a lot of good videos to learn options:

Thanks - If anything I prefer longer videos to short and not-enough-information ones.

 

[ponyo]

lol. Sandy Munro converted to full Tesla fanboy. I don't think any major legacy OEMs will now hire him as auto manufacturing expert consultant anymore. UBS bank hired Sandy to do the teardown report on the initial Model 3 which he initially panned for poor build quality but later praised for unmatched technology and engineering. Sandy sees the brilliance of Tesla Battery Day and knows the importance of what was revealed unlike the moron Wall St analysts.

 

[FelixDeCat]

lol wonky volatile day. Stocks down... then DOW up 500... now back to negative for closing.

Tons of shit news from Washington. Crap jobless claims. Congress is about to go home again without passing stimulus.

Smellin' some doom n' gloom.

This week was weird as hell........and very profitable.

We started off the week in rally mode but by Wednesday/Thursday things were looking bad. The QQQ's rallied back to 273 then fell all the way down to near 260.

Here is what pisses me off ..

During the midday broadcast THURSDAY on CNBC a trader who is big into options (Najarian?) said they noticed A GIGANTIC trade in SPY CALLS expiring NEXT WEEK. That means they bet big on something with a lifespan of 6 days that the market would be higher. This trade was placed while the enitre market was in major sell mode. So he said because of this he was being contrarian and buying while everyone was hunkering down for more selling..

THEN, DURING THE LAST HOUR OF TRADING ON THURSDAY.... there was talk of revived stimulus talks. The market turned around and ended the day positive! ON FRIDAY, the entire market was up 1.50%-2.50%. If you own millions of dollars in cheap out of money market calls, I would say you probably just won the fucking lottery.

What a "lucky" trade though.

 

[Tweak155]

Thanks - If anything I prefer longer videos to short and not-enough-information ones.

I'll be honest, I think it's longer because he repeats things too much. But if you have the patience and skip a little bit here and there, he covers a lot of the basics. I haven't done anything with options yet, but I was able to digest The Wheel example with what I've learned so far just skimming the topics around them. I think most the terms are covered in that video I linked, but he has others as well.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I'll be honest, I think it's longer because he repeats things too much. But if you have the patience and skip a little bit here and there, he covers a lot of the basics. I haven't done anything with options yet, but I was able to digest The Wheel example with what I've learned so far just skimming the topics around them. I think most the terms are covered in that video I linked, but he has others as well.

Yeah I've been through the first hour. So far I have it down pretty well of what calls and puts are on the face of it.

Now that you understand "the wheel" - what are your thoughts on options trading ? Especially to their point of trying to say it's just as safe as buy/hold (which I honestly don't believe - but I don't fully understand the wheel yet).

 

[Svnla]

Any of you play Carvana? I saw their ads recently on TV and they (father and son) are worth billion of USD.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/father-son-used-car-sellers-175036520.html

 

[Tweak155]

Yeah I've been through the first hour. So far I have it down pretty well of what calls and puts are on the face of it.

Now that you understand "the wheel" - what are your thoughts on options trading ? Especially to their point of trying to say it's just as safe as buy/hold (which I honestly don't believe - but I don't fully understand the wheel yet).

Being newer to hands on trading / investing, it comes off as a convincing style as long as you're willing to tie up the capital and manage the strategy regularly (note: tying up the capital is the same thing you'd have to do for buy & hold, so this is not a negative when comparing). If you notice, he says he often exits the options early when they're up quicker than expected - which lets on that he is reviewing them regularly (my guess is daily at a minimum, but varying amounts of time each day depending how volatile the market is).

So if we take his examples for granted / true, yes you may very well outperform buying and holding an index - but you're also performing significantly more effort to achieve that gain (if you consider buying and holding "no work" for the most part).

It would be up to you if the extra effort is worth the premium. If you look at it from a per hour perspective, my guess is it pays very well once you are comfortable with the strategy and execute it using less and less time as your skills improve. The more time you put in, the quicker you'll make decisions, you'll make better decisions, and your profits utilizing the same amount of capital will gradually increase - thus returning a greater ROI on the effort.

EDIT:

To be clear, it seems the wheel strategy relies heavily on being OK with owning the shares in the event of an inevitable market decline. But his argument against this is that if you feel the market will never rebound (I.E the typical mindset is the market always will eventually increase in value), you shouldn't be in the market to begin with (see his "guns and ammo" quip). Thus, in the event you get assigned the shares from an exercised CSP, this shouldn't be of concern to you since the shares will inevitably increase in value - unlike owning the shares of a single company. You'll lose money initially, but eventually you'll get it back at some point, and the premiums you collect selling the options waiting for it to happen will be a cherry on top long term.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Any of you play Carvana? I saw their ads recently on TV and they (father and son) are worth billion of USD.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/father-son-used-car-sellers-175036520.html

I didnt trade this but did hear about it.

 

[ponyo]

I found my twin brother! This guy made ~$7 million from Tesla calls.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/j142i3

He bought crapload of Jan 15, 2021 Tesla $690 calls for under $1 last year between April-Sept. That's when I was loading up on crapload of Tesla stock and few calls as well. I also bought few 1/15/2021 Tesla leap calls too but I bought $300 and $420 calls back in Sept 2019 because I wasn't crazy like this guy, and I wanted to play safe. I paid little over $39 for the $300 and $12 for the $420 leap calls. I bought the $420 mainly as a joke because while I thought TSLA could hit $420, that was the take private offer price Elon tweeted and got in trouble for. What I should've done was loaded up on the $690 like this guy as a joke. It would've costed me hardly nothing. $420.690 is a magical number for TSLA.

So now I know there's at least one other person on WSB other than _Fog who made millions from Tesla stock and calls. _Fog did it starting with around $14k and turned it into over $10 million in 9 months with TSLA calls. This elon_etherum guy turned around $30k into $7 million in a year with TSLA calls. It warms my heart to see people who believed in Tesla get rewarded for their diamond hands and faith. People might dismiss their accomplishments and say they got extremely lucky. While that is absolutely true, it doesn't take anything away from their awesome accomplishments. People who never made this kind of money don't understand how incredibly hard it's to hold position like this to get it up to this level. They don't know the mental high and lows of making and losing million dollars in a single day. It plays crazy mind games with you and you mentally and physically can get sick and not be able to take it. It's tremendous pressure. People who haven't been in their shoes don't have a clue what it takes. So I have the deepest and upmost respect for guys like _Fog and elon_etherum who diamond handed their TSLA lottery tickets to financial freedom. I know it wasn't easy. So many people who were in similar position sold their TSLA shares in the $200, $300, $400, $500, $600, etc unable to take the heat and the pressure of holding. Seeing their success warms my heart. Hope they enjoy their millions and make millions more.

 

[PlanetJosh]

^ Well after that I'm just happy to have sold $8k of AMD stock near its high so I can pay some bills through the end of this year.

 

[ponyo]

I think Sandy Munro is going to retire and become full time Tesla cheerleader like me! But honestly, Wall Street analysts and the mass media have no clue what Tesla just unveiled at their Battery Day. I look out to the future and I see game over for ICE vehicles and most legacy auto manufacturers. Tesla and Chinese companies like Xpeng are going to rule the EV world. The world is going fully electric and there's nothing Wall Street and fossil fuel companies can do to stop it. And batteries are the key and Tesla just showed you they hold the key at Battery Day.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1309542843837558791

 

[ponyo]

Sold more Oct 2 TSLA $350 and $330 puts.

Bought back batch of the $350 TSLA puts I sold last Thursday morning during the Tesla stock selloff. Sold it for puts on Thursday morning for $20 and bought it back this morning for little over $1. I'm going to leave the rest of the $350 puts along with 100% of the $330 puts to expire worthless this Friday. I could've left all of the $350 puts to expire worthless but there's small risk TSLA shares could fall this Friday after-hours when Tesla likely will report 3rd quarter vehicle production and deliveries. So it's good risk management to close the $350 puts when I've extracted like 95% of the value from it. Risk management says I should buy back and close out the rest of the $350 puts I sold but I'm greedy and will let it bleed down to like $0.25 or so before closing it out before Friday.

Also I sold my first batch of new Oct 9 TSLA $500 covered calls. Will keep selling more in increments whenever TSLA price increases this week and next.

 

[FelixDeCat]

SAVA under accumulation. Currently $11.50.

 

[ponyo]

Palantir IPO (PLTR) today. I bought 1k shares at $9.86. They're like the evil software company. Extremely anti and shareholder unfriendly company. I bought because PLTR company is backed by Peter Thiel. I like to bet on people and Peter Thiel is proven winner.

 

[ponyo]

Closed out the rest of the Tesla $350 puts I sold for $0.09 this morning. The puts expire tomorrow and will 99.99% of the time expire worthless since it's like $87 /shr out of the money. But Tesla will likely report their 3rd quarter vehicle production and delivery report either tomorrow or Monday. It's not worth the risk/reward to keep the trade open. I squeezed out over 99% of the max profit on the trade. No need to be greedy and stupid over few bucks.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Palantir IPO (PLTR) today. I bought 1k shares at $9.86. They're like the evil software company. Extremely anti and shareholder unfriendly company. I bought because PLTR company is backed by Peter Thiel. I like to bet on people and Peter Thiel is proven winner.

Palantir is Skynet. Definite long term potential there.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Has anyone seen the crazy run in NKLA? It went from 18 to 27 in a few days. I flipped some calls, but that company has way too many issues to be held - even overnight.

 

[ponyo]

Has anyone seen the crazy run in NKLA? It went from 18 to 27 in a few days. I flipped some calls, but that company has way too many issues to be held - even overnight.

I had a feeling NKLA was going to reverse up when it was in the $17-18 range couple of days ago. But I don't care. It's not a stock or company I want to associate myself with. Longterm, this company is worth cash on its book. And NKLA going to bleed cash until insiders finish cashing out leaving retail holding the bag.

 

[ultimatebob]

Soo.... what are we buying on the dip today, boys?

 

[ponyo]

Tesla Q3 2020 Vehicle Production & Deliveries report out this morning.

https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries

145,036 cars produced and 139,300 delivered. The numbers are what I was hoping to see so I'm happy to see Tesla in the ballpark of the estimates. So Tesla is on track with their yearly goal and kicking ass. I'm very happy with the report. I'm guessing Q3 earnings will be on October 21 or October 28. I'm now very bullish we'll see good earnings run heading into the report. Very excited and will load up on calls and shares for the earnings run at any major drop. Super bullish on TSLA. Great job Tesla team.

PS. fvck you S&P.

 

[zinfamous]

Palantir IPO (PLTR) today. I bought 1k shares at $9.86. They're like the evil software company. Extremely anti and shareholder unfriendly company. I bought because PLTR company is backed by Peter Thiel. I like to bet on people and Peter Thiel is proven winner.

Peter Thiel is a sociopathic antihuman monster, though.

This is a piece of shit that actually pays young male models to give him blood transfusions (he's one of those narcissist morons with an unreasonable judgement of their own intelligence that actually believes that the blood of young men will make him immortal--he literally believes this)

He's also spending billions of dollars to build a massive underground bug-out bunker to defend his immortal life from what, he believes, to be the revolting scum class--all of us and yes, you are included too, ponyo, because you don't have Peter Thiel money--will try to murder the people like him because of all of the evils that he believes he has done to them. ...This, rather than spending a fraction of that money on causes and political ideas that will actually alleviate apocalyptic wealth disparity and prevent this war in the first place.

People like this deserve death rather than monetary support.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Peter Thiel is a sociopathic antihuman monster, though.

This is a piece of shit that actually pays young male models to give him blood transfusions (he's one of those narcissist morons with an unreasonable judgement of their own intelligence that actually believes that the blood of young men will make him immortal--he literally believes this)

He's also spending billions of dollars to build a massive underground bug-out bunker to defend his immortal life from what, he believes, to be the revolting scum class--all of us and yes, you are included too, ponyo, because you don't have Peter Thiel money--will try to murder the people like him because of all of the evils that he believes he has done to them. ...This, rather than spending a fraction of that money on causes and political ideas that will actually alleviate apocalyptic wealth disparity and prevent this war in the first place.

People like this deserve death rather than monetary support.

Dont forget the killer sentry cyborgs sporting dual 50 cals and weaponized drones with pulsed energy projectile lasers.

 

[ponyo]

I'm aware Peter Thiel is evil. He backstabbed and had PayPal board kick out Elon Musk as the CEO of PayPal while Elon was on his honeymoon. That's dirty and cold. But looking back, that turned out to be a good thing and blessing in disguise because that freed Elon to start SpaceX and Tesla with the PayPal money after he sold the stock. SpaceX and Tesla might not exist today if not for backstabbing Peter Thiel.

You can hate the guy and still make money off of him. George Soros is evil too and he helped the Nazis and profited from wars. But Soros has made lot of money for people who invested in him. The way I see it Palantir will continue to gain influence and snake their way into world governments, politics, and big corporations. Data harvesting and surveillance will increase with the world moving towards increased contact tracing. People will increasingly lose some of their freedom. PLTR is like cancer and once it gets hold of world governments and big corporations, they will embed and take over. It's inevitable. Tesla and SpaceX are the good of the world. Palantir is the evil of the world. So Palantir is my hedge that evil will win. Even if evil doesn't completely win, evil will always be with us. I plan to add to my PLTR position. 1k shares initial buy was just placeholder until PLTR establishes trading range I can see and understand. Ultimately, I want to own like 5k to 10k shares in this evil company and not touch it for 5-10 years. I can see this evil company having market cap of 100 billion to 200 billion in 10 years. That would mean 5x-10x return on my initial investment.

 

[IEC]

Seems like a good day to sell some cash-secured TSLA puts... down $25 per share on good news.

 

[ponyo]

Seems like a good day to sell some cash-secured TSLA puts... down $25 per share on good news.

That's exactly what I did. I sold some TSLA Oct 16 $400 puts for about $16.26 each today. Yesterday I sold more TSLA Oct 9 $500 calls on the rip higher at around $7.