Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[ponyo]

Interestingly cruise ship bookings are strong for 2021, I guess when people assume the vaccine will be out. If the market is forward looking, then this should be good for the cruise lines this year. Cruise people love cruising.

Carnival CEO: Despite 'devastating' coronavirus outbreak, cruise bookings for 2021 are strong

"We have found a way to secure financing. It was costly," Carnival CEO Arnold Donald said Tuesday.

www.cnbc.com

Those are not new bookings and new money. It's former and current bookings that got canceled and given as credit which was rolled into 2021. If the market had been allowed to have true price discovery, I might have bought Carnival stock at $1 or $2 as lottery tickets. That's like buying forever call option. But government intervention has delayed true price discovery. Which is why I'm not biting on cruise or airline stocks yet. Buffett is key tale for this sector IMO.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Glad I bought Spice. To the moon baby!

 

[ponyo]

Wrote another 5 contract of TSLA May 15, 2020 $450 put and sold those for around $11.40 each. Collected another ~$5,700 in put premium. I like my chances of TSLA staying above $450 next month on May 15 and the puts I sold expiring worthless. If so, that's another $5,700 of free money to add to the bank while I wait out another month. I need to use my cash stockpile to make some easy money while I wait for the right opportunity. Couple thousand here. Couple thousand there adds up over time. Gotta keep grinding.

 

[ponyo]

Sold yet another TSLA May 15 $450 put for $12.05. Now I have sold 7 of the TSLA May 15 $450 puts. Crazy thing is when I sold my first TSLA put last month during the crash, I got paid almost $100 or $10,000 per contract.

I'm on the hook for 17 put contracts total or 1,700 shares of TSLA I have to buy next month if it drops below $450, $420, $380, and $350 price. That's around $90,000 in put premium. I could've collected over $150,000 on the same 17 put premium month ago. I'm saving some room to sell couple more TSLA puts in case TSLA drops big before the puts I sold expire.

 

[WhoBeDaPlaya]

LTRPB is truly on-board with infinite QE - it's up 1000%+

 

[ponyo]

LTRPB is truly on-board with infinite QE - it's up 1000%+

What's the story on that? . Holy crap! At first I thought I was looking at call option return.

 

[ponyo]

Wrote TSLA April 24 $550 put for $4.90. I'm now theta collecting machine. The TSLA April 17 $550 put I sold for $9.10 on Monday is now worth $0.34. . It should expire worthless in two days this Friday. Why pay the house at the casino when you can be the house and collect the premium yourself? Theta gang for life.

 

[WhoBeDaPlaya]

What's the story on that? . Holy crap! At first I thought I was looking at call option return.

LMAO, you and me both. It's the first time I've seen a stock behave like a r/wsb FD
Hell yes, theta gang. Today's trading is crazily flat - IWM's been bouncing between 117 and 118.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Spice $21

 

[snoopdoug1]

What's the story on that? . Holy crap! At first I thought I was looking at call option return.

Look again hahaha!

 

[mohit9206]

Wrote TSLA April 24 $550 put for $4.90. I'm now theta collecting machine. The TSLA April 17 $550 put I sold for $9.10 on Monday is now worth $0.34. . It should expire worthless in two days this Friday. Why pay the house at the casino when you can be the house and collect the premium yourself? Theta gang for life.

Wow man thats some nice trades. People who buy puts for a stock thats in uptrend make a mistake, they don't understand that you don't short something thats going up.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Got some CCL for a short covering rally. Be nice to see $12 again.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia initiated a 5%+ stake this quarter.

Sold this way too soon, bought $9 calls and sold them when the stock hit $11.50.

Two years from now Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) will be $50 again.

I also think Spice (SPCE) will retake its 52 week high of $42 and set a new record .... one day.

 

[WhoBeDaPlaya]

Holy cow, would you look at that massive green SPY candle at open to pump out the weekly job losses.

 

[ponyo]

Holy cow, would you look at that massive green SPY candle at open to pump out the weekly job losses.

I was like there's no way they can pump again today when the weekly job numbers came out at 8:30. Yet they tried. But nothing surprises me anymore.

TSLA announced they will release 1st quarter earnings after the close on Wed, April 29th. So I sold TSLA May 1st $550 put this morning for $14.95 since those have high IV due to earnings uncertainty. I might sell couple more depending on how things play out.

 

[WhoBeDaPlaya]

I was like there's no way they can pump again today when the weekly job numbers came out at 8:30. Yet they tried. But nothing surprises me anymore.

You just know TheDonald is going to be all "5.2M vs 6.6M job losses last week, BOOMING" at the presser today. Of course, conveniently forgetting that 4/5 * 6.6M = 5.2M. This is more disturbing to me because it shows that the unemployment claims system capacity is pretty much 6.6M, and that we've capped it for the past 3 weeks.

Playing with a few IWM $116 4/24 calls to get some pocket money today (expecting a pump from the presser)
As far as weekly expected, SPY's range is 292 - 265, and with VIX having jumped up again it's going to be interesting.

 

[KB]

An idea from a podcast I listen to https://www.curzioresearch.com/. Last time oil prices were this low for this long (2008) oil tanker rates went extremely high because traders were using VLCCs as floating oil storage. For example take a look at TNK Teekay Tankers in 2008 vs right now. Worth a look and a listen.

 

[ponyo]

An idea from a podcast I listen to https://www.curzioresearch.com/. Last time oil prices were this low for this long (2008) oil tanker rates went extremely high because traders were using VLCCs as floating oil storage. For example take a look at TNK Teekay Tankers in 2008 vs right now. Worth a look and a listen.

So how do we use this info to make money? What's the play other than renting a tanker?

 

[WhoBeDaPlaya]

Can always count on JPow's printer near EOD.
Made an average of 25% profit on two plays of IWM $116 4/24Cs today, and am out.
Do not feel comfortable holding options overnight in this crazy market, especially since all the real action happens after hours anyway (gapping up / down)

So how do we use this info to make money? What's the play other than renting a tanker?

I tried to short WHO when Trump cut funding, but couldn't find the stock ticker

 

[FelixDeCat]

Futures up massively. Gee, I hope shorts covered.

 

[Bitek]

Market up on drug trial hopes.
TSLA moving up close to 800.
How do you trade on FOMO?

Madness.

 

[KB]

So how do we use this info to make money? What's the play other than renting a tanker?

I mentioned Teekay Tankers symbol TNK. The assumption is that companies like TNK would increase in value and give out huge dividends to shareholders, that is if now plays out like 2008.

 

[snoopdoug1]

bye bye crude.

 

[ponyo]

Market up on drug trial hopes.
TSLA moving up close to 800.
How do you trade on FOMO?

Madness.

Gilead drug news was pure market pump timed perfectly by criminal hedge funds and players who were looking to unload Gilead shares and options after they had bought huge the past week or two. They used Adam Feuerstein to write that pump story and get out. Someone yesterday bought over 7,000 contracts of GILD $80 call expiring at the end of today for $0.15. This morning the same $80 call opened at $5.30. That's over 35x return overnight. Who freaking spends over $100k buying way OTM option that's going to expire the next day if they didn't plant the story. Fvcking Adam Feuerstein should be investigated by the SEC and put in jail along with all his hedge fund buddies who paid him to write that story and pump their GILD position. Really sickening stuff. Of course Shortseller Enrichment Commission won't do jack shit because it doesn't involve Elon Musk.

TSLA is on their earnings run. I'm sticking with my gameplan of selling OTM puts. It's not sexy but better than nothing. I sold another TSLA put today. This time April 24, $620 put for $4.80. Now I'm on the hook for 20 puts or 2,000 shares of TSLA I have to buy if it hits my sold strikes. But after today, it will be 19 puts since April 17 $550 put I sold for $9.10 on Monday will expire worthless today. I wish I had bought $600 call instead but that's how it goes. I'm going to keep grinding and picking up pennies until the right opportunity strikes. I do not believe in the V recovery. At minimum we'll get W or something else.

 

[jpiniero]

TSLA's recent run isn't about earnings, after all they aren't going to be making much any time soon. It's about the other car companies doing worse, maybe gambling that one or a couple others goes out of business first.

 

[WhoBeDaPlaya]

+1 Just another day of grinding on IWM calls.