Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[FelixDeCat]

There is such a thing as recognizing possibilities and taking action to avoid it or profit from it.

Because I know it will rain tomorrow I carry an umbrella to work. That does not mean however I should go out and buy 1000 unbrellas with my credit card try to sell them for a profit on the street corner.

Its never a bad day when you make money.

 

[ponyo]

This is absolutely asinine, but I'm out.
Purchased a few TSLA at ~$450, bailed at $730.
Also bailed on AMZN (bought in near ATH shortly before Corona - never dreamed I would break even, let alone profit!)

Yeah I feel like the market is ahead of itself but what do I know. All the big guys are saying they're raising cash to invest because they don't believe we've seen the low. And I agree with them and that's why I'm also sitting majority in cash. But it sure is tough seeing your favorite names you have on your buy list bounce back so hard leaving you behind.

We haven't heard much from Buffett other than he sold some of his airlines near the low to get under 10% reporting rule. It's telling when Buffett is raising cash on asset when it's near 52 week low when he has like $150 billion war chest.

 

[ponyo]

As if that's something amazing to boast about?

Yeah - the majority of the working world (~97% I would venture to say) are risk adverse and want as least risk as possible.

The types that are willing to take gigantic risks are just a rare breed of people (or so rich that they don't care about the potential losses).

You can't have gigantic returns without high risk. Majority of the people are better off in index fund. But if you're investing in index, you should also dollar cost average. So I don't know why people here are trying to time the market when they're index investors.

The point I was trying to make is JEDI loves to brag about his imaginary six figure oil short. It's like every year he talks about his imaginary trade. Dude thinks his imaginary 6 figure position is some impressive position. Shit is like 150 shares of TSLA. And TSLA is way more violent and moves way more in daily percentages than oil.

At least the retards at WSB are making actual plays. Not imaginary plays. What kind of loser talks about fake trades?

 

[Bitek]

TSLA is just playing catch-up. TSLA was still down around 50% from its high while most of the FAANG stock are back near 52 week high or only down like 20% at most. TSLA is just closing the gap. I think TSLA was lagging because people were scared of the 1st quarter production and delivery numbers. But when TSLA numbers came out on April 2 and it was really good, people started jumping back in. I saw what was happening and still didn't act. I should've bought TSLA $600 weekly calls yesterday like I was thinking about. Could've made 10 times my money in one day. Got to refocus on the big picture.

Yeah, I know there was the production issues, closing of some plants, but also uncertainty of the economy, and esp with direction on electric cars with oil prices being so low. (Tho oil production should blunt this a bit, as well as the trillions constantly promised by the Fed...)

I think there is more clarity on the short term actually rather than the long-term because we don't really know how the economy is going to recover and what return to normal looks like.

IDK. Personally, I'm really busy with job, at home kids, and trying to make life work, so I have limited time to look at it, so I'm continuing to be a bit defensive as usual. I've been taking a few risks on short term trades here and there, but I want to avoid loses or getting my play money locked up on a reversal.

Made a few quick bucks here and there. Hard to complain other than missing out on the huge score.

 

[snoopy7548]

I was an idiot and bought some 4/17 puts that I'll be losing 100% of my money on. At least I pulled out of my 4/9 CCL puts early, and managed to save a little bit.

 

[WhoBeDaPlaya]

I was an idiot and bought some 4/17 puts that I'll be losing 100% of my money on. At least I pulled out of my 4/9 CCL puts early, and managed to save a little bit.

Ouch
I'm pretty much daytrading here and there with the mindset that JPow will bail me out, ie. buying almost ITM calls on the dip (playing with IWM 4/24Cs today)
Not YOLO profits, but I'll take $1K here and there.

Going back to a pre-Corona market would be somewhat boring now though (back when 1% was huge).
Now I barely notice unless we trip breakers. I do still want to see a 3-breaker day before we recover though, just for the novelty.

 

[brianmanahan]

these yolo guys are being killed.

LOL the dude just closed his position at -698$k

needed to save the remaining 100$k to run his business

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/g17zmf

 

[snoopy7548]

Ouch
I'm pretty much daytrading here and there with the mindset that JPow will bail me out, ie. buying almost ITM calls on the dip (playing with IWM 4/24Cs today)
Not YOLO profits, but I'll take $1K here and there.

Going back to a pre-Corona market would be somewhat boring now though (back when 1% was huge).
Now I barely notice unless we trip breakers. I do still want to see a 3-breaker day before we recover though, just for the novelty.

The market is just crazy. You think, "Oh, it can't possibly go up." but then it does. At least it was a relatively inexpensive learning lesson.

 

[Bitek]

As if that's something amazing to boast about?

Yeah - the majority of the working world (~97% I would venture to say) are risk adverse and want as least risk as possible.

The types that are willing to take gigantic risks are just a rare breed of people (or so rich that they don't care about the potential losses).

Yeah, everybody has to find their comfort level.

Talking to some friends/neighbors, some have fled from the market and say they are only going to buy hard assets (eg RE) as it's too risky and rigged.
To me, owning apartments sounds risky and a pita to me.

Other guys are putting up big bets and scoring or losing big.
Too risky, time consuming and complicated for me.

Personally, I have a % of cash I play with here and there, and leave the rest untouched in index or mutual funds, or a few LT ~safe stocks.

Overall working ok for me. No heart attacks, and I've been able to make some trades to get my portfolio down only 5-7% on net from Feb highs before all hell broke lose, and I have a strong cash position to keep working with.

With all the problems in the world, can't complain.
I'm heathy, ~wealthy and got more work than I can keep up with, so no threats to my job or living.

 

[amrnuke]

But if you're investing in index, you should also dollar cost average. So I don't know why people here are trying to time the market when they're index investors.

If you're index investing you should DCA if you have a periodic income out of which you earmark some for investment. Otherwise you shouldn't sit on cash and slowly pump it in, you should dump it all in at once and continue to DCA periodically as you can. Mathematically it has been proven, and anecdotally in this thread, that trying to predict what the market will do is inherently impossible.

Will some buy a peak? Sure. And if you're close to retirement, you may not have the flexibility to wait years for the market to recover (in which case you shouldn't be heavily weighting stocks anyway).

 

[IronWing]

The market is just crazy. You think, "Oh, it can't possibly go up." but then it does. At least it was a relatively inexpensive learning lesson.

The Fed is buying up the big players’ crappy bonds so they have money to dump into equities.

 

[WhoBeDaPlaya]

The market is just crazy. You think, "Oh, it can't possibly go up." but then it does. At least it was a relatively inexpensive learning lesson.

Already learned the lesson (that JPow has a bigger d*ck printer) with my late-Apr/early-May SPY and GLD puts Salvaged whatever I could and rolled into USO and IWM short term calls.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Market looking overbought. You know things are nutty again when SPCE (spice) is up 25% because a former subsidiary got a government contract.

....mmmmkay...thats certainly a reason to bid up Spice 25%

Virgin Galactic "investors" must know something I dont.

 

[WhoBeDaPlaya]

....mmmmkay...thats certainly a reason to bid up Spice 25%
Virgin Galactic "investors" must know something I dont.

Would be instructive to look at the RSI, and other indicators like darkpool (DEX, GEX)

 

[ponyo]

Market looking overbought. You know things are nutty again when SPCE (spice) is up 25% because a former subsidiary got a government contract.

....mmmmkay...thats certainly a reason to bid up Spice 25%

Virgin Galactic "investors" must know something I dont.

I thought to myself this morning with TSLA mooning, I bet SPCE will play catch-up and follow. Sure enough SPCE mooned today. Wouldn't surprise me to see SPCE at $22-24 again.

 

[WhoBeDaPlaya]

I thought to myself this morning with TSLA mooning, I bet SPCE will play catch-up and follow. Sure enough SPCE mooned today. Wouldn't surprise me to see SPCE at $22-24 again.

Not to make light of Tesla, but a lot of folks consider TSLA and SPCE (along with PLUG, APRN, etc.) to be "meme" stocks. IIRC, you bailed out of SPCE pretty much at the peak (~$42). I am extremely happy/lucky that I did so as well at $41, can't imagine the bagholders who bought in at $35+ and held all the way down to the teens.

Resistance level for the day looks to be ~283 SPY, ~123 IWM. Scooped up some IWM $124 4/24Cs during the noon dip (~$3.30), sold at the pump near close (~$4). Not super sexy, but profit is profit.
As for why JPMorgan didn't get hit harder, it's because the JP stands for Jerome Powell

 

[FelixDeCat]

I thought to myself this morning with TSLA mooning, I bet SPCE will play catch-up and follow. Sure enough SPCE mooned today. Wouldn't surprise me to see SPCE at $22-24 again.

There is logic to this. Assuming we go back to "skys the limit, price doesn't matter only momentum does" this week, Spice may break $20.

If you think about it, Spice should be bought along with Tesla since we are about to reopen the economy.

Im out of play money today, however.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Ok I bought 70 spice shares for my HSA and 29 spice shares of my tiny cash account. Both executed at $19.

Both accounts are up over 200% this year so Im overdue to lose money.

My main account has seen miracle after miracle. Up bigly.

 

[hawkeye_wx]

Tech stocks are trading like the virus never even existed. NVDA has risen $100 off its low and AMD is almost back to its high. Sheesh!

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Heavily contemplating socking away some money in Royal Caribbean and Carnival shortly.

Were one more "bailout" away from a spike I would suspect.

 

[njdevilsfan87]

Tech stocks are trading like the virus never even existed. NVDA has risen $100 off its low and AMD is almost back to its high. Sheesh!

I'm actually not super surprised there. Tech is being used more if anything now, and NVDA... well those who are buying the $1200 GPUs probably aren't those being laid off now.

 

[KB]

Heavily contemplating socking away some money in Royal Caribbean and Carnival shortly.

Were one more "bailout" away from a spike I would suspect.

Interestingly cruise ship bookings are strong for 2021, I guess when people assume the vaccine will be out. If the market is forward looking, then this should be good for the cruise lines this year. Cruise people love cruising.

Carnival CEO: Despite 'devastating' coronavirus outbreak, cruise bookings for 2021 are strong

"We have found a way to secure financing. It was costly," Carnival CEO Arnold Donald said Tuesday.

www.cnbc.com

 

[ponyo]

I don't want to do this as it feels so wrong but I'm thinking about shorting TSLA. It feels so wrong and dirty to just even think about it as betting against TSLA is betting against humanity. It's like betting or rooting against your favorite sports team. But when I see piece of scum like Dan Levy at UBS trying to pump TSLA after being so wrong and negative forever and now new analyst at Goldman Sachs trying to pump TSLA, that tells me these fvcks have loaded up at the low and now looking for retail to dump it to. Granted, there's now new analyst at GS after the former loser David Tamberrino left Goldman at the end of last year. Tamberrino was the worst lying piece of scum. Dude was so dishonest it was unbelievable. Because no one that stupid could've got a job at Goldman.

Now the new Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney initiated coverage of TSLA this morning with buy rating and $864 price target. That's night and day difference between former TSLA analyst Tamberrino who had sell rating and like $180 price target on TSLA. Mark Delaney doesn't say anything TSLA bulls already know which is TSLA has "early-mover advantage" and their technology is years ahead of competition. He expects Tesla to grow at annual compound rate "well over 20%" for the next 5 years. Well no shit Sherlock. Anyone who studied TSLA for even 5 minutes already know this unless they're lying piece of scum like Dan Levy and David Tamberrino. Delaney sees TSLA earning $40 to $75 a share "in the 2030 timeframe."

So forgive me father as I might have to sin soon if I short TSLA.

 

[IronWing]

Shorting isn't a sin. A bad price is a bad price.

 

[ponyo]

Shorting isn't a sin. A bad price is a bad price.

It is if you short TSLA. and current price will be great price in couple of years. I'm just greedy bastard who's looking for better entry point and thinks the macros will deteriorate over the next 6 months. But TSLA as a company? No better positioned company for the next 10-20 years. Shorting TSLA now is like shorting Amazon in 2012 before their decade run higher. It's absolutely stupid. Which is why I apologize for even thinking about doing such stupid thing. But I'm a retard so that's my excuse.