Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[ponyo]

Chased and bought anther 100 shares of TSLA at $433.50

 

[FelixDeCat]

Flipped some SPCE. 11.55 to 12.25. Yeah for bear market rallies!

 

[ponyo]

It was on a ~300% run over about 2 weeks prior to the corona effect, based on some really good earnings, forecast, and where most expect them to be 2, 5 whatever years from now. I look at stocks like this that have no rational crash outside of "corona effect." as absolute bargains.

so, as with much of the market, none of these companies and their stock price logically have any thing to do with coronavirus, which is exactly the point.

that being said, SPCE is a "hyper luxury brand," so there is only so much room this kind of thing can run, imo--in our lifetimes, anyway.

TSLA is much, much different. They aren't just cars, for one thing, and that's the best thing about them, imo.

300% run on SPCE is correct. But there was no good earnings and forecast. SPCE doesn't have any earnings and won't for very longtime if ever. The only positive is that SPCE is sitting on decent cash cushion because of the money from the reverse merger with Social Capital. SPCE will be alright even though RIchard Branson is probably getting killed because of his Virgin Atlantic airlines holding. Disruption companies tend to do very well and come out of recessions and downturns better than established. That's why I'm not worried about TSLA because they're going come of this stronger than GM, F, etc. The old auto companies had difficulty with electric cars even before this virus ravaged the world market. How are they going to finance their electric program while their ICE car sales collapse even quicker because of this virus outbreak and the economic impact afterwards. TSLA has plenty of cash and they can slow their production need be or grow little slower if they have to. The old ICE autos can't. They're going to die.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Wish I had the balls to buy NUGT at $5. It has TRIPLED in days. Look at the five day chart.

Too scared to touch it.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Sitting here wondering what all of those rubes who spent $$$$$ flipping KFC friend chicken logs on EBay back in December would be doing if they had enough free cash to buy up toilet paper futures right now.

Hundred dollar chicken scented logs have GOT to be in some way comparable to the 'shoe shiner stock tips' of yesteryear, as a sign that our economy was on the verge of collapse anyhow.

 

[JEDI]

one stimulus plan being floated:
$1000 to every tax paying US citizen

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-recession-direct-payments-americans-ubi-c3393d14-33ad-47c2-a739-f2fec150b212.html

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

one stimulus plan being floated:
$1000 to every tax paying US citizen

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-recession-direct-payments-americans-ubi-c3393d14-33ad-47c2-a739-f2fec150b212.html

WHAT ABOUT THE CHILDREN?! SOMEONE PLEASE THINK OF THE CHILDREN OH GOD!

lol $500 per child.


Yeah, I mean... I'm overall for it, but will it mean much? Who knows. The main thing is REGARDLESS of having $1000 extra or not - we need butts in chairs at restaurants, and feet on the ground in stores. Until people get the confidence to do that, there is ZILCH you can do for the economy.

 

[JEDI]

I sold May 15 TSLA puts. Sold 1 $450, 4 $420, and 1 $380 puts. Collected close to $60k in premium.

congrats!

wished I knew how to do options.
would be up 7 figures instead of 6 in shorting oil.

 

[ponyo]

congrats!

wished I knew how to do options.
would be up 7 figures instead of 6 in shorting oil.

That's not how it works bud. I just put on the trade. Everything is mark to market right now and no gain/loss locked in.

Yeah stick with your imaginary oil position. You can't lose imaginary money.

 

[IronWing]

WHAT ABOUT THE CHILDREN?! SOMEONE PLEASE THINK OF THE CHILDREN OH GOD!

lol $500 per child.


Yeah, I mean... I'm overall for it, but will it mean much? Who knows. The main thing is REGARDLESS of having $1000 extra or not - we need butts in chairs at restaurants, and feet on the ground in stores. Until people get the confidence to do that, there is ZILCH you can do for the economy.

$1000 in fast food gift certificates?

 

[ponyo]

$1000 in fast food gift certificates?

They could give us the $1k restaurant of our choice gift certificates in addition to $1k to spend as we wish. $2k per person would be nice. $1k restaurant gift certificates would save restaurants. Imagine the restaurant recovery.

Just make it $10k. Then we could spend it on restaurants, travel, and pay off shit. Recession/depression solved.

 

[JEDI]

That's not how it works bud. I just put on the trade. Everything is mark to market right now and no gain/loss locked in.

ahh. ok.
it sounds like you either will make a profit or will own tesla at a low price.

win/win?
if not, how would you lose out on your tesla options then?

 

[JEDI]

oil went below $27 briefly.
multi-year low is $26.21 in 2016.

 

[woodman1999]

I was reading through some headlines today and saw the below article:

Betting on Mergers Just Became a Whole Lot Riskier

With the stock market in turmoil and the economic outlook uncertain,

www.barrons.com

Basically just commenting on some of the mergers that were scheduled to go through this year and how the spreads have widened considerably between the buyout price and the current stock price. Anyone think this is a worthwhile play at some point? I know the risk is definitely there for these deals to fall through, but it's not like they're fly by night operations doing the buying. I also understand that you may be jumping in to early e.g. Tiffany, as a luxury goods manufacturer may (will) get crushed during poor economic times, but there is certainly some money to be made if these deals go through.

 

[IronWing]

It’s just crouching, getting ready to pounce.

Called it.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Called it.

Remember Rule #1 of the Official Stock Market Thread - no braggin!

 

[Svnla]

Italy, France, Belgium ban "short" dealing of any kind.

 

[IronWing]

Italy, France, Belgium ban "short" dealing of any kind.

They have to know this doesn't work. I guess it might make good politics even if it makes dumb policy.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Italy, France, Belgium ban "short" dealing of any kind.

...I posted this earlier in this thread (#361):..

If markets pull back 35% or more you could see a prohibition on the short sale of stock, except to perform bonafide market making operations. This was first instituted after the stock market was closed for a week after the 9/11/01 terrorist attacks and trading resumed on September 17, 2001. Nobody could sell short stock on 9/17/2001.

The government also prohibited short sales of 1000 financial stocks for 30 days from Sept 2008 to October 2008. The net effect was:

"The Securities and Exchange Commission's ban on short selling, which sparked a series of similar bans around the globe, was intended to be a "time out" and "restore equilibrium to markets." By the time it expired Wednesday night, the general view was that it added to market confusion and didn't do much to halt the slide in financial stocks. " - WSJ 10/9/08

------

So you can see.....we might institute a ban on short sales here too if it gets bad enough, but as noted above, it does not work in the long run and hinders market function in the long run.

 

[FelixDeCat]

AOC says airline bailout should come with strings including restrictions on stock buybacks!!! Amazing, someone is listening in Congress!

Bailouts also facing pushback in Congress. Futures limit down 5%.

 

[JEDI]

...I posted this earlier in this thread (#361):..

If markets pull back 35% or more you could see a prohibition on the short sale of stock, except to perform bonafide market making operations. This was first instituted after the stock market was closed for a week after the 9/11/01 terrorist attacks and trading resumed on September 17, 2001. Nobody could sell short stock on 9/17/2001.

The government also prohibited short sales of 1000 financial stocks for 30 days from Sept 2008 to October 2008. The net effect was:

"The Securities and Exchange Commission's ban on short selling, which sparked a series of similar bans around the globe, was intended to be a "time out" and "restore equilibrium to markets." By the time it expired Wednesday night, the general view was that it added to market confusion and didn't do much to halt the slide in financial stocks. " - WSJ 10/9/08

------

So you can see.....we might institute a ban on short sales here too if it gets bad enough, but as noted above, it does not work in the long run and hinders market function in the long run.

what if we already have short positions?

 

[JEDI]

AOC says airline bailout should come with strings including restrictions on stock buybacks!!! Amazing, someone is listening in Congress!

Bailouts also facing pushback in Congress. Futures limit down 5%.

wow.. oil is at $25.75 premarket!
pierced the $26 support line from 2016!
it hasn't been this low since 2003 (17years)!

printing $$$...
but opening bell is 3hrs away.
anything can happen.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

So like I said earlier in the thread - it feels like for the next month (at minimal) it's going to be a constant cycle of

Day 1: Market Down
Day 2: Market Up (But less than it was down from previous day)
Day 3: Market Down
Day 4: Market Up

Rinse and repeat. This is why I'll never understand trading shit.

Pre-Market down 800 on the dow as of now.

 

[snoopdoug1]

I agree. No idea what you do with this. Boeing testing double digit numbers, nearly $100. TSLA below 400.

 

[jpiniero]

I agree. No idea what you do with this. Boeing testing double digit numbers, nearly $100. TSLA below 400.

Tesla was ordered to shut it's Fremont factory down.