Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

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FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,095
2,715
126
Svnla said:
Damn, thinking about putting my $10K playing money into the market, just for kick. Win, lose, or draw.
Click to expand...

You can make a quick buck, but right now you have to be nimble. What this market giveth, it quickly taketh away either long or short. So you have to lock in gains.
 
brianmanahan

brianmanahan

Lifer
Sep 2, 2006
24,638
6,016
136
i'm at a point where i would normally sell some of my bonds to buy more stocks

but i think i'm just going to sit and wait for a little while
 
JEDI

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
29,391
2,738
126
brianmanahan said:
i'm at a point where i would normally sell some of my bonds to buy more stocks

but i think i'm just going to sit and wait for a little while
Click to expand...
lets see if the market euphoria of the emergency bill lasts into Mon
 
S

s0me0nesmind1

Lifer
Nov 8, 2012
20,842
4,785
146
JEDI said:
lets see if the market euphoria of the emergency bill lasts into Mon
Click to expand...

I doubt it will. Like I said - it's just a constant switch of: Down a lot. Up (but less than the downer). Down a lot. Rinse and repeat.

There will be so much negative news (ESPECIALLY across the US as we start to get to the point of seeing hundreds of thousands of new cases per day) that it will result in another big downer day.

Plus you still have to worry about the O&G industry woes... What a fucking horrible time for their to be price war, when we as consumers are all told to sit at home and not go anywhere... There is going to be a massive oversupply.
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,095
2,715
126
Unless you work in the Oil and Gas industry, which many do, lower fuel prices are good for consumers. Buying O&G stocks right now is riskier than buying lottery tickets, including the biggest like Chevron and Exxon Mobile.

Everyone is in hot water in that industry. You don't want to join them and buy their stock.

I know people that have worked in O&G including a cousin who was partially paid in Chesapeake Oil stock back when it was $5 share. When I saw him a while back he said he was hanging on watching it go up and down. It had hit $8 at one point and he sold half but let the rest ride. He finally gave in and dumped the rest around $1.

Now they are about .15 cents each.
 
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JEDI

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
29,391
2,738
126
s0me0nesmind1 said:
Plus you still have to worry about the O&G industry woes... What a fucking horrible time for their to be price war, when we as consumers are all told to sit at home and not go anywhere... There is going to be a massive oversupply.
Click to expand...
well trump said he will buy oil to fill up the strategic reserve to support the shale drillers.

im assuming he's buying directly from them and not from the open market (ie: Opec).

also, I have found no detail on the price he's paying for that oil.
if it's market price (ie: currently $32/barrel), how will this help the shale drillers??
 
zinfamous

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,892
31,410
146
PlanetJosh said:
Got lucky and made about $5200 usd on AMD today at the moment (it's still in after hours.)

Edit: Welp at the close of after hours my gain is down to $3600. Bought it yesterday at $40.3 and now it's 42.7 at the end of after hours. With that it tells how many $ I put in the trade but many of you have bought shares in general for much more. It could easily get erased in 1 or 2 days but I can feel good about this one trade for about another 20 hours. Overall my mutual funds are getting hammered since Feb 21..
Click to expand...

AMD was threatening $60 just before the COVID effect, and there is no reason, based on very likely market gains this year, that it won't get back up there once this mess clears up.

Just hold it.
 
J

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
16,955
7,376
136
zinfamous said:
AMD was threatening $60 just before the COVID effect, and there is no reason, based on very likely market gains this year, that it won't get back up there once this mess clears up.

Just hold it.
Click to expand...

Companies are going to slash tech spending for sure though. It's tough to say how bad it will get.
 
zinfamous

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,892
31,410
146
jpiniero said:
Companies are going to slash tech spending for sure though. It's tough to say how bad it will get.
Click to expand...

could be....which could also mean colliding with an overload in inventory everywhere, so "mini price war" between Intel/AMD/Nvidia for a spell to unload inventory, and buyers now looking to take advantage of deals when they can. Then the market moves on those purchases and see if the pre-virus predictions of where these folks will land still manage to pan-out by the end of 2020--same predicted share, even if the margins have shrunk a bit? Still pretty big deal if AMD is anywhere within 4% of that prediction, which I think was priced in at the $55-60 range that it was preparing to break. so...we shall see.

Also, I think a lot of the contracts are already inked or close to it, just not really reported yet, because...distractions and well, waiting for the quarter, as one does. The thing holding people back might be shipping and of course...if the inventory is available. Not that deals haven't already been made on inventory and purchases.

That's why, I think, you look at areas like this where the market response has nothing to do with these companies' fundamentals; but you simply grab those cheap deals when they are they just given out.
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,095
2,715
126
Hopefully we find some stability next week. Maybe QQQ in the rage of 180 to 200. There will be speculation of Fed action on Wednesday and more government relief.

However, event closings and border shutdowns are increasing worldwide. This may drag the market much lower.

The only thing that will turn this around is signs of the virus going away.
 
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JEDI

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
29,391
2,738
126
FelixDeCat said:
Hopefully we find some stability next week. Maybe QQQ in the rage of 180 to 200. There will be speculation of Fed action on Wednesday and more government relief.

However, event closings and border shutdowns are increasing worldwide. This may drag the market much lower.

The only thing that will turn this around is signs of the virus going away.
Click to expand...
Italy's chrono virus count jumped this week and keeps climbing exponentially. this is after the 1st case 3 weeks ago.

the US had it's first case last week. wait 2 more weeks and you'll see #s that will make people panic. especially # of deaths!
also, since we only had like 100 viable test kits for the entire country last week. :eek:
 
Artorias

Artorias

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2014
2,281
1,598
136
JEDI said:
Italy's chrono virus count jumped this week and keeps climbing exponentially. this is after the 1st case 3 weeks ago.

the US had it's first case last week. wait 2 more weeks and you'll see #s that will make people panic. especially # of deaths!
also, since we only had like 100 viable test kits for the entire country last week. :eek:
Click to expand...

This is what happens when you have a for profit health care system. The all might dollar over the health and well being your citizens. Disgrace.
 
IronWing

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
73,147
34,453
136
I decided to peek at my 401k. That was not an enrichment exercise. :( Oh well, I can always move in with my grandmother when I retire.
 
S

s0me0nesmind1

Lifer
Nov 8, 2012
20,842
4,785
146
IronWing said:
I decided to peek at my 401k. That was not an enrichment exercise. :( Oh well, I can always move in with my grandmother when I retire.
Click to expand...

Eh - not TOO bad.

I have to look at my investments practically every other day since I keep my accounting up-to-date with Quicken.

Smell dent in my retirement investments thus far:

1584295254070.png
 
J

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
16,955
7,376
136
zinfamous said:
could be....which could also mean colliding with an overload in inventory everywhere, so "mini price war" between Intel/AMD/Nvidia for a spell to unload inventory, and buyers now looking to take advantage of deals when they can. Then the market moves on those purchases and see if the pre-virus predictions of where these folks will land still manage to pan-out by the end of 2020--same predicted share, even if the margins have shrunk a bit? Still pretty big deal if AMD is anywhere within 4% of that prediction, which I think was priced in at the $55-60 range that it was preparing to break. so...we shall see.
Click to expand...

I think you are underestimating the impact the closures are going to have on the economy. It might not truly hit the stock market until the Q1 earnings reports. You would think this would lead to companies with triple digit PEs like AMD to get valuations a little saner. I don't think you can count on earnings growth even with big market share increase.
 
S

s0me0nesmind1

Lifer
Nov 8, 2012
20,842
4,785
146
jpiniero said:
I think you are underestimating the impact the closures are going to have on the economy. It might not truly hit the stock market until the Q1 earnings reports. You would think this would lead to companies with triple digit PEs like AMD to get valuations a little saner. I don't think you can count on earnings growth even with big market share increase.
Click to expand...

I think a lot of people (AND the market) are underestimating the cost of closures.... especially places like Nike that are paying employees and closing the stores.

They might not see the results now - but once earnings come around it's going to finally be reflected I would presume.
 
Svnla

Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,986
1,388
126
Bloomberg TV said in the next few weeks, there would be blood on oil and gas industry. Much lower demand from airline industry and manufacturing plus a lot of people would stay home and less demand for gasoline and then the price war between Saudi and Russia. Any of you going to short oil and gas stocks?
 
Svnla

Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,986
1,388
126
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