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Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

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There are some amazing deals out there right now. My bonds have held up well, so I plan to sell those mid-march and buy some of these deals, many of which yield way more than the bonds.

Paper stocks like IP, WestRock and Domtar are being hammered with the rest of the market. Coronavirus keeping people home may mean those people will order even more stuff online and cardboard/paper will be even more in demand.

Cruise stocks, RCL, CCL are getting closer to their 2008 crisis levels. Yeah there will be some short-term pain as the virus scares people from cruising, but they will be back and so will the stock price.

Oil stocks are below 2008 crises levels. Some people think oil is going away, I don't. We are still so addicted.
 
The risk of course is that valuations will return to historical levels, even with this pumping.

KB said:
Oil stocks are below 2008 crises levels. Some people think oil is going away, I don't. We are still so addicted.
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We are definitely addicted but in a recession oil demand is going to plummet. People getting laid off, WFH more, less goods being shipped, no more flying...
 
zinfamous said:
god damn either your account was recently hijacked by some "buy stocks now and transfer your brokerage quick!" herbalife-esque online pyramid training website, or you'er on mental meth or some shit with your Tesla gains and have gotten yourself back in....maybe too heavy man?

I dunno...chill? 😀
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😀. I feel like I'm the only person who's chill here. I'm just here for entertainment and laughs. There's lot to be negative about right now. But over the longterm, being negative on US equities never made you money. It's important to keep perspective while all the chicken little scream the sky is falling.

I'm not telling people to buy stocks now and transfer their brokerage account. I'm telling you what I'm doing. Which is zero selling. I did all my selling earlier this week. I'm on zero margin right now. So my stress level is super low. I'm transferring portion of my trading account from TD Ameritrade to IB mainly because of way lower margin rates and also for broker diversification purposes. The Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC) only covers up to $500,000 of your brokerage account. So if you have more than that, you're at risk. The risk is super low but it's still there. So I'm transferring some of my TSLA position over to IB even though I love TD ThinkorSwim app. Switching to IB will save me tens of thousands of dollars a year in future margin interest. IB margin interest for their IBKR Pro account is 2.59% for under $100,000 and only 2.09% for balances up to $1 million. Those are super low rates. In comparison, TD Ameritrade charges 8.75% for margin loan under $100,000 and 8.25% for margin loan from $250k to $500k. Huge difference in margin loan rates. That's why I'm switching even though the switching process is major pain in the butt and carries lot of risk. I can't trade portion of my trading account for 5-8 business days. I could've sold my position and transferred cash but then I would've had to pay massive taxes on my short term gains. I thought about hedging during the transfer process downtime by buying some S&P puts but I decided against it. I'm just going to chill and wait for the transfer to complete and then reassess the market then. I'm sitting on some cash so I could do some small buys in the meantime but we'll see.
 
IronWing said:
The sky isn't falling but stocks sure are. I think I might get back in when the Dow hits ~18,000.
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I don't buy indexes and the DOW is about the most irrelevant index out there. I care about the S&P and the Nasdaq. And I only buy individual names so if a company I like is on sale, I buy regardless of the price of the DOW. Seriously, who cares about the DOW?
 
ponyo said:
I don't buy indexes and the DOW is about the most irrelevant index out there. I care about the S&P and the Nasdaq. And I only buy individual names so if a company I like is on sale, I buy regardless of the price of the DOW. Seriously, who cares about the DOW?
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Insert index of your choice. I'll consider buying back in when P:E ratios aren't retarded. Right now, they're still in retarded territory.
 
FelixDeCat said:
Sad, but true. But we are all we have so we have to deal. Every crises is the same way.
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I don't think this is true. Outside of Katrina, I can't recall a more incompetent, unqualified, woefully incapable group of morons ever being put into a position that would invariably have them dealing with actual crises.

But then, the vast majority of us US voters knew this back in 2016, and the majority of us voted against allowing such observably incompetent idiots to ever be put into such a very dangerous scenario, and yet here we are.
 
zinfamous said:
I don't think this is true. Outside of Katrina, I can't recall a more incompetent, unqualified, woefully incapable group of morons ever being put into a position that would invariably have them dealing with actual crises.
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The pumping started with Obama. Trump just took it to another level and now the Fed is stuck pumping it until the thing explodes.
 
zinfamous said:
We literally have the absolute dumbest people on the planet in charge of this thing right now. How ridiculous is this?
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I don't mind the lower rates. Soon, I'm going to be able to borrow like million dollars for under 1% if this keeps up. 😛. That's basically free money. Why wouldn't I take it? What do you think all the rich people are going to do with their money when they can't earn crap for interest in safe assets?
 
ponyo said:
I don't mind the lower rates. Soon, I'm going to be able to borrow like million dollars for under 1% if this keeps up. 😛. That's basically free money. Why wouldn't I take it? What do you think all the rich people are going to do with their money when they can't earn crap for interest in safe assets?
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So the effect of the Feds pandering to Trump's political whims is to pump up asset prices by encouraging risky behavior on the part of people who don't need the money? M&A and vulture capitalists rev your engines.
 
zinfamous said:
that pumping started during a crisis that required pumping to alleviate the crisis.
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The Fed should have raised rates a lot sooner than they did to prevent this bubble from forming. Shouldn't have done QE infinity, etc.

I don't know what the Biden Fed is going to do honestly.
 
jpiniero said:
The Fed should have raised rates a lot sooner than they did to prevent this bubble from forming. Shouldn't have done QE infinity, etc.

I don't know what the Biden Fed is going to do honestly.
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Very slowly recover over the next 4-6 years, just like the Obama fed did?
 
That was a nice failed gold price manipulation attempt today. The pressure on it is building...

Stocks? Probably the worst place you can right now.
Bonds? Absolute crap cost for giving up liquidity - you might as well keep cash.
Cash? Unfortunately not worth much with rates heading to 0%.

That leaves gold...
 
njdevilsfan87 said:
That was a nice failed gold price manipulation attempt today. The pressure on it is building...

Stocks? Probably the worst place you can right now.
Bonds? Absolute crap cost for giving up liquidity - you might as well keep cash.
Cash? Unfortunately not worth much with rates heading to 0%.

That leaves gold...
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Some banks haven't adjusted interest rates yet, so I shoved some of my extra cash in a 2% CD.
 
s0me0nesmind1 said:
Some banks haven't adjusted interest rates yet, so I shoved some of my extra cash in a 2% CD.
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Chase just sent me an offer that if I opened Chase Sapphire banking and deposit $75,000 and keep it there for 90 days, they'll pay me $1,000. Even if I didn't have the money, I could borrow the money from IB and deposit it in Chase. After I pay IB $485 in margin interest for 3 months, I would still net $515. It's literally free money using bank's money. 😉 But not really. I would have to pay taxes on that $1,000.
 
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