Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[IronWing]

Don't fight the Fed. You're going to lose.

The Fed ain’t got much left in the quiver. Interest rates are already below the inflation rate. They can create some more money and buy bonds again but doing so should outrage actual investors who get screwed on returns long term.

 

[ponyo]

Futures are green again, so relying on those numbers a day before market opens isn't really that reliable data for trading.

Exactly. Until morning, it's best to ignore the futures unless you trade it.

 

[ponyo]

The Fed ain’t got much left in the quiver. Interest rates are already below the inflation rate. They can create some more money and buy bonds again but doing so should outrage actual investors who get screwed on returns long term.

I've heard Fed don't have much ammo left BS for years. And guess what? They always have more ammo and the stupid bears always lose.

 

[TheVrolok]

First case of Covid-19 in NYC reported. The virus could literally be on Wall Street. Don't suspect this will be good for the markets.

 

[dasherHampton]

God damn it.

Is anything going to be done to reign in these fucking AI robot traders? They've become "too big to fail". They can't be unplugged, and their algorithms weren't prepared for this kind of event.

They're fucking everything up.

 

[snoopy7548]

Gonna be a rough week...

6 people have died from novel coronavirus in the US as cases nationwide surge | CNN

More than 100 people across the country have been infected. So far, all deaths within the US have been in Washington state.

www.cnn.com

New cases of the virus were announced in Oregon, Rhode Island, Washington state, New York and Florida on Sunday, bringing the US total to 89 as of Monday morning, up from 65 on Friday night.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Gonna be a rough week...

6 people have died from novel coronavirus in the US as cases nationwide surge | CNN

More than 100 people across the country have been infected. So far, all deaths within the US have been in Washington state.

www.cnn.com

Being that this crap is here now, I think worrying about getting sick and people freaking out any time someone sneezes is probably going to be the number 1 worry this week, not the continued market declines.

Paranoia will reign supreme.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Also rate cuts will cure no one, but containment will help stem the tide. We need the Surgeon General to start pumping more medication into the populace, not the Fed to make money cheaper.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Being that this crap is here now, I think worrying about getting sick and people freaking out any time someone sneezes is probably going to be the number 1 worry this week, not the continued market declines.

Paranoia will reign supreme.

We will see.... In non-coronavirus news that will probably affect the market this week we have:

Super Tuesday
February jobs report

Definitely going to be interesting.

 

[FelixDeCat]

We will see.... In non-coronavirus news that will probably affect the market this week we have:

Super Tuesday
February jobs report

Definitely going to be interesting.

A technical bounce is not out of the question. But its like putting air in a tire that has a hole. The air will escape out of the tire and the air will come out of the market again. Until we fix the tire (the virus runs its course) will not be out of the woods.

Then comes the election fiasco in November.

 

[ponyo]

Also rate cuts will cure no one, but containment will help stem the tide. We need the Surgeon General to start pumping more medication into the populace, not the Fed to make money cheaper.

The longer the coronavirus stays in the news, the less the people will care about it. Panic and scare tactics only work for so long until people say screw it and don't give a crap about daily coronavirus death or news. At certain point, people become numb and accept that life will go on. So even without containment, the number of infected will start to go down and this 2020 coronavirus scare will disappear into the history books. But the rate cuts will remain and will boost the market. The excess money in the world will always chase growth. And in an environment where there is little growth, any company that can demonstrate growth will carry outsized multiple.

BTW, market is about to open and what do I see? Green. Told you red futures at that early in the evening rarely lasts.

 

[njdevilsfan87]

Also rate cuts will cure no one, but containment will help stem the tide. We need the Surgeon General to start pumping more medication into the populace, not the Fed to make money cheaper.

I'm not even sure what's the best action moving forward... do nothing and let the recession ride its course or enter hyperinflation. I don't care what the fed reports on inflation - if you have a zero or negative interest money is basically worthless and all assets continue to significantly outpace wages. In the millennials thought they had it bad hitting a networth of zero in their 30s, just wait until generation alpha is in debt their entire lives. At least mortgages will have negative rates by then.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I'm not even sure what's the best action moving forward... do nothing and let the recession ride its course or enter hyperinflation. In the latter if millennials thought they had it bad hitting a networth of zero in their 30s, just wait until generation alpha is in debt their entire lives. At least mortgages will have negative rates.

If you feel comfortable dipping your toes in the market then by all means do so, but do realize there is still downside risk.

Dipping toes does not mean all in, maybe 3%-5% of available cash in only the best names.

Its up to you. None of us really knows the best thing to do so best to be cautious.

 

[Mai72]

I'm not even sure what's the best action moving forward... do nothing and let the recession ride its course or enter hyperinflation. In the latter if millennials thought they had it bad hitting a networth of zero in their 30s, just wait until generation alpha is in debt their entire lives. At least mortgages will have negative rates.

That's why it's so important to live below your means, and to live a minimilistic lifestyle. Get rid of all payments unless you can pay cash. No car payments, no credit cards, no mortage, no loans of any sort. This will allow you to stash a ton more money, and you'll be able to pivot. For example, imagine being out of work for 1 month due to this virus? Most Americans are in so much debt they can't afford to do this. 1 month of no work would set them back financially. OTOH, imagine if you had $10k put away for emergencies, and have ZERO consumer debt. You tell me who is sleeping better that night? The person whose in debt and who needs to work to pay their bills, or the person who has zero debt and has money put away/invested.

I've said this before but I'd rather be financially free and live a life below my means, than be in financial hell because I'm buying crap I can't really afford to try to impress people I really don't care about. I drove a $80k Mercedes Benz before. There is nothing special about trying to look like you have money. A $6k car that is paid for in cash is a much better option, unless you can buy a $80k Mercedes in cash. Just saying.

 

[ponyo]

I'm not even sure what's the best action moving forward... do nothing and let the recession ride its course or enter hyperinflation. I don't care what the fed reports on inflation - if you have a zero or negative interest money is basically worthless and all assets continue to significantly outpace wages. In the millennials thought they had it bad hitting a networth of zero in their 30s, just wait until generation alpha is in debt their entire lives. At least mortgages will have negative rates by then.

If you're not on margin and you're invested in index funds or stocks of solid companies you know very well, the best course of action is to just HOLD and ride it out the storm if you have 3-5 year time frame. The market will recover. Now if you're on margin, sell any levered positions and get yourself into more neutral balanced position. Biggest thing is DO NOT have margin debt in this kind of environment. Leverage and margin will kill you quick in this environment. So even if the market recovers, you might not be alive to see the recovery. I can't stress this enough. DO NOT BE ON MARGIN RIGHT NOW.

 

[zinfamous]

Wallstreet is well aware that democrats are very much in the pants of wallstreet (albeit, different industries typically).

I don't think Wallstreet really cares about tax increases on the middle-class (which is inevitably what would have to occur in order to pay for the ludicrous programs being touted).

why? we already have all the money.

Why do you think giving trillions to billionaires is free and not worth questioning, while requesting billions for everyone is somehow impossibly expensive?

why do you think this?

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

why? we already have all the money.

Why do you think giving trillions to billionaires is free and not worth questioning, while requesting billions for everyone is somehow impossibly expensive?

why do you think this?

Why do you think my post (that you quoted) says that I support "giving trillions to billionaires is free" ?

Also I was simply stating that the cost of these programs cannot mathematically be paid for by "just the rich". It's been proven.

 

[zinfamous]

Why do you think my post (that you quoted) says that I support "giving trillions to billionaires is free" ?

Also I was simply stating that the cost of these programs cannot mathematically be paid for by "just the rich". It's been proven.

No it hasn't.

A couple of things:
--we kept this country running pretty fucking well for about 80 years with "the rich basically paying for everything" and wage rates for middle class at steady, reasonable CoL growth.
--No one is demanding that "the rich pay for everything."

Again. we have the vast majority of the money. Why do you think massive new taxes are necessary when we already waste shitloads of money on garbage things that benefit no one?

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

No it hasn't.

A couple of things:
--we kept this country running pretty fucking well for about 80 years with "the rich basically paying for everything" and wage rates for middle class at steady, reasonable CoL growth.
--No one is demanding that "the rich pay for everything."

Again. we have the vast majority of the money. Why do you think massive new taxes are necessary when we already waste shitloads of money on garbage things that benefit no one?

Cleaning up government spending is something true conservatives have been touting for the last 20+ years.

The problem? It never happens. It only becomes a more bloated whale. This is because there isn't an unbias entity in our government system that says "Our military is taking too much money, we need to cut the budget".... In comes the equivalency of a corporate lobbying campaign to ensure that they send the message to the people in office that "No, you NEED this military budget. It is ESSENTIAL. It will also HURT YOUR CHANCES OF GETTING RE-ELECTED!" and thus the bloated pig continues to get bloated year over year.

Sure, we can totally crack down on our healthcare and reduce costs across the board in order for us to have a better system that is single payer (or whatever your preference is). The problem is that our government system is a piece of shit because we will never ever trim the fat. It will only become more and more and more bloated.



Also no idea where you get the message of "the rich basically paying for everything". That certainly has not (and has never) been the case in the last 80 years.

And yes, they are actively campaigning under the general guise of "THEY need to pay more". It's never "WE need to pay more".

 

[FelixDeCat]

Bought some NUGT. I think miners rally near term.

Unfortunately another market downturn could take miners with it despite a recovery in gold prices, so there is risk to this trade.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

I would encourage anyone that's looking at the market today and thinking 'self, I think it's a good time to jump back in', to stop for a minute and bear in mind that we're just now starting to test for COV-19, and other countries are seeing rapidly expanding numbers of infected and dead. We're in no way, shape, or form, through this. I wouldn't be surprised to see another drop of 2k or more from the current 26k by tomorrow close.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I would encourage anyone that's looking at the market today and thinking 'self, I think it's a good time to jump back in', to stop for a minute and bear in mind that we're just now starting to test for COV-19, and other countries are seeing rapidly expanding numbers of infected and dead. We're in no way, shape, or form, through this. I wouldn't be surprised to see another drop of 2k or more from the current 26k by tomorrow close.

Not to mention the governments that are covering up how many are infected, not testing, downplaying how big of an issue it is, etc..

I definitely know the market is no where near the bottom. Probably wont be anywhere close to the bottom for another month at minimal.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Not to mention the governments that are covering up how many are infected, not testing, downplaying how big of an issue it is, etc..

I definitely know the market is no where near the bottom. Probably wont be anywhere close to the bottom for another month at minimal.

The way I see it is this, if government leaders (especially the US government) are trying to downplay the effects, and specifically trying to convince people to not get out of the market, it tells me they know for a fact that the market is sensitive to what is going to happen, and are trying to dampen the effects. If it was only a scare, they'd know it was going to bounce back as quickly as it fell, and there'd be no need to even comment on the disruption.

 

[ponyo]

I would encourage anyone that's looking at the market today and thinking 'self, I think it's a good time to jump back in', to stop for a minute and bear in mind that we're just now starting to test for COV-19, and other countries are seeing rapidly expanding numbers of infected and dead. We're in no way, shape, or form, through this. I wouldn't be surprised to see another drop of 2k or more from the current 26k by tomorrow close.

No one is thinking of jumping in today after this massive rally. Time to jump in was last Thursday and Friday when it looked like the selling wouldn't end. Today was the day to sell and take profit on those abyss buys. And the hedge funds that were over leveraged like 10:1 should've took today's rally to lighten up on some exposure. Or you should hope they did.

I did little bit of selling today to reduce some risks, but I'm still holding all my core shares. I really don't know which way the market will go from here. You can't be too negative because the world governments could launch coordinated surprise rate cuts and/or surprise stimulus package and blow up your bear position. But you can't be too bullish because the coronavirus news in the US and Europe will only get worse and you have to think about the weak hands who will panic.

If you guys are so sure we're going to drop big from here, buy some puts on the S&P and Nasdaq and make some money. Me, I'm not confident enough to bet that way so I'm just going to hold.

 

[PlanetJosh]

Well out of curiosity I'm waiting for the next few minutes until the Dow closing if it can break the all time single day record of 1086 points back in 2018.

Ok it has broken it, just has to hold on for another 8 or so minutes.