Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
25,731
353
126
i guess you're not buying at $1 then? :p
Ive told the story a few times already about my brother buying some shares back in 2008 when HTZ went under a buck on bankruptcy fears. He then held the shares until they hit $18 dollars each, and it happened fairly quickly.

The difference between now and 2008 is that this time Hertz filed for protection from creditors.

They do have a billion in cash and billions in debt and there is chance the equity (existing shares) could survive. It all depends on how quickly they can get people into cars and paying them rent. If that doesnt happen soon, I suspect the shares go to zero.

This is all very speculative however and I would not risk any more than you are ok with losing completely, because thats the MOST likely outcome:


Edited to add article advising against buying bankrupt company shares.
 
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dasherHampton

Golden Member
Jan 19, 2018
1,752
262
96
SRNE fighting to stay under $5.

Wish they'd hurry up and consolidate back into the $3s so I could open a position.
The SRNE adventure has been fun. If it ends for me on 6/19 I won't shed any tears.

If it doesn't I'll probably sit on it without selling options (unless they're too good to pass up) and see it it's got a spike left in it.
 
Nov 8, 2012
15,375
2,538
126
Ive told the story a few times already about my brother buying some shares back in 2008 when HTZ went under a buck on bankruptcy fears. He then held the shares until they hit $18 dollars each, and it happened fairly quickly.

The difference between now and 2008 is that this time Hertz filed for protection from creditors.

They do have a billion in cash and billions in debt and there is chance the equity (existing shares) could survive. It all depends on how quickly they can get people into cars and paying them rent. If that doesnt happen soon, I suspect the shares go to zero.

If business picks up soon, there might be leverage with creditors. This is all very speculative however and I would not risk any more than you are ok with losing completely, because thats a real possibility.
Isn't there only like... 3 big name car rental companies in the game? Hertz, Enterprise Group (National, Alamo, and Enterprise?), and Avis/Budget ?

Like I said, with how massive these bankruptcies are, at what point are things "too big to fail"?

Because honestly, only having 2 options for car rentals when you go to airports (in some cases 1) will be lame.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
25,731
353
126
Isn't there only like... 3 big name car rental companies in the game? Hertz, Enterprise Group (National, Alamo, and Enterprise?), and Avis/Budget ?

Like I said, with how massive these bankruptcies are, at what point are things "too big to fail"?

Because honestly, only having 2 options for car rentals when you go to airports (in some cases 1) will be lame.
The most likely outcome is that Hertz WILL survive, but in a smaller form. Creditors will most likely take control of the company and get 100% of the equity in a newly formed company.

Speculators in the existing shares may try to buy now hoping against hope to be included in a .005% stake in the new company, but thats the long shot bet. Have to see what happens and how close to zero the shares go.

 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
25,731
353
126
Also this bankruptcy filing will likely cause shares in Avis (CAR) to fall substantially as well. Its shares are going to get hit and probably drift lower in sympathy with Hertz.
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
25,985
534
126
The most likely outcome is that Hertz WILL survive, but in a smaller form. Creditors will most likely take control of the company and get 100% of the equity in a newly formed company.

Speculators in the existing shares may try to buy now hoping against hope to be included in a .005% stake in the new company, but thats the long shot bet. Have to see what happens and how close to zero the shares go.

from your link:
Stockholders are the last in line, and generally only get anything if the rest of the creditors are repaid in full. And since the reason most companies use Chapter 11 protection in the first place is an inability to pay their debts, you can probably imagine that this doesn't happen too often.

so .005% chance sounds about right..lol
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
25,731
353
126
from your link:
Stockholders are the last in line, and generally only get anything if the rest of the creditors are repaid in full. And since the reason most companies use Chapter 11 protection in the first place is an inability to pay their debts, you can probably imagine that this doesn't happen too often.

so .005% chance sounds about right..lol
Your chances are probably about the same if you bought $500 worth of lottery scratch off tickets.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
25,731
353
126
I always wondered what the first Teslas looked like. They were just modified Lotus Elise. Theyve come a long way:

 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
25,731
353
126


So we are already up nearly 40% from the bottom and the market is scheduled for another 2% gain in the morning on "Vaccine Hopes!". Again.
 
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KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,054
123
106
What’s everyone think of REITs as part of a “own total market” strategy?

not many small shops paying rent right now...
I like REITS for income, but they often experience big capital gains after a recovery and are a good source of diversification.
There are a lot of REITS, including some that only run Distribution warehouses and datacenters, so Amazon can be one of their clients. These REITS like PROLOGIS haven't been hurt by the economy as much and so they still pay a lower dividend and won't give you big gains.
 

jpiniero

Diamond Member
Oct 1, 2010
7,681
1,051
126
So we are already up nearly 40% from the bottom and the market is scheduled for another 2% gain in the morning on "Vaccine Hopes!". Again.
It's JPow and his money printer driving it.

Maybe we should have 100% unemployment. SPY would be 1000 at least.
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,054
123
106
Things looked absolutely bleak before, so a little re-opening looks great. I think when we see 2nd quarter earnings the market will realize its overpriced.
 
Nov 8, 2012
15,375
2,538
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Overpriced? I mean how far are we from record highs at this point?

I'm hoping for a serious come to Jesus moment type of correction.
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
25,985
534
126
Overpriced? I mean how far are we from record highs at this point?

I'm hoping for a serious come to Jesus moment type of correction.
s&p's resistance lvl at 3000 has been pierced.
next up, new record highs before the jesus correction.

aka im waiting till the s&p climbs another 10% before shorting again
 

dasherHampton

Golden Member
Jan 19, 2018
1,752
262
96
I've thought about this long and hard the past few days (giggety) and I've made up my mind to buy 1000 more shares of SRNE. No options, just to let sit. I think its worth the risk. If the treatment they're working on shows any promise at all SRNE could skyrocket.

I'm even going to buy them on a different account so they don't intermingle with my existing shares. I don't want them talking to each other.

Is it a lottery ticket? Yeah, of sorts. But SRNE isn't completely reliant on the coronavirus stuff. They have other things in the pipeline as well. Could it drop to $4, or $3, or even below? Yes, it could. But my gut tells me it's worthwhile.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
25,731
353
126
Carnival up another 11% to $18. All cruise stocks up 22% in two days.

Avis (CAR) is $19.

Crazy monster rally in all travel stocks, even airlines!

Im tempted to sell the rally, not sure if it will last.
 
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