Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[Tweak155]

Cybertruck will be game changer. Delivery starts in 2022. It's going to be iconic vehicle. I can't wait to get mine.

I watched interview Elon did yesterday at the magazine award show in Germany. During the interview, Elon said Tesla would be open to merger with legacy automaker but he wouldn't do hostile one. I've been thinking about what Elon said and VW keeps popping in my head. I think there's small chance VW could ask for merger with Tesla. Herbert Diess, chairman of VW, greatly admires Elon and Tesla and is trying his hardest to push VW to completely electric. Diess actually lost his VW CEO title this year and was pushed out from that role because the old guards at Porsche saw Diess as a threat. It's amazing really. Diess doesn't want VW to suffer the same fate as Nokia. Yet he's getting pushback at VW for his desire for quick change to all EV. But if VW becomes part of Tesla, there would be no pushback and Diess would win because VW will live and thrive under Elon and Tesla. Something to watch going forward.

Here's Herbert Diess letter on how he's trying to save Volkswagon.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-we-transform-volkswagen-herbert-diess/

I have high confidence VW will survive the transition to EV. I don't have the same faith with GM and Ford. I think one or both will be toast and will be bought for scraps by the Chinese.

After working at Ford previously for 7-8yrs, i have to say I agree. Management there says they value innovation, but their actions are clear they prefer precedence and being "yes" men. They'd rather cover up a problem than admit it and take it head on (just look at the dual clutch transmission issue for the Focus - status quo).

I tried almost desperately to get them to shrink headcount to become more efficient and enable the stronger team members, but they fought me tooth and nail. Ford is like the government - management is incentivized to get bigger for no good reason. Any time you talk about getting more efficient and cutting people, management gets scared their job is at risk. Too afraid to do what is right / needed. Getting and keeping more budget is management goal #1... meeting objectives is a nice to have.

 

[Ken g6]

Cybertruck will be game changer. Delivery starts in 2022. It's going to be iconic vehicle. I can't wait to get mine.

I wouldn't mind getting one if it's as reliable and tough as it looks. But I wouldn't bet on that being the case.

Reliability Problems Plague Newer Electric Cars, Consumer Reports' Latest Survey Shows - Consumer Reports

Reliability problems plague newer electric cars, according to Consumer Reports' latest reliability survey. EVs from automakers like Audi, Kia, and Porsche are no longer recommended by CR.

www.consumerreports.org

 

[ponyo]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...e-of-tesla-short-bloomberg-news-idUSKBN28D2GU

lol. What a moron! Jim Chanos reduces size of Tesla short. Moron started shorting TSLA 5 years ago. This asshole was part of the TSLAQ crowd who funded all the TSLA FUD. I still remember when Jim Chanos, the moron, came on CNBC in March and told the viewers, “We are still basically maximum short Tesla. It’s still one of my favorite positions.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/cha...short-tesla-even-with-drop-in-last-month.html

I'm so glad the internet never forgets so these lying scums can't say they were never short Tesla or some other position they got destroyed in.

Never bet against Elon Musk.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I just shorted some Tesla.

 

[dasherHampton]

I bought 1000 shares of BB when it was really popping. "Amazon" is such a buzz word that people turn into zombies when they read it.

I could have sold for around $500 day trade profit but I decided to hang in. I did sell 10 calls to hedge a little.

Right now I'm about even on it.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Well if Dasher is in, I'm in.

2k@7.78

 

[FelixDeCat]

QQQ 330 in Q1 21?

 

[dasherHampton]

Well if Dasher is in, I'm in.

2k@7.78

Hopefully it keeps some momentum.

My $10 calls are for 1/15 so I'll be watching until then at lest.

 

[ponyo]

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/k7anqp

This is possibly the greatest single position percentage gain I've ever seen in my life. 205,000% gain in little over a year from a single trade. Unreal. Guy bets $452 total on couple super OTM TSLA call options last summer. He holds for a little over a year through all the ups and downs and now the call options are worth almost $1 million. He bought couple other TSLA calls and spent couple thousands and those calls are now worth over $5 million today. In options, there's someone on the other side of the contract who's writing and selling you the option. So the person on the other side of the trade is going to realize the actual loss. The person who sold him the option likely closed it out months ago on their end but passed it to others. Market maker likely bought the option contracts at some point and hedged it by buying shares so the original seller probably didn't suffer million dollar loss. But it's still crazy all this was possible because someone wanted to take this guy's initial $452. lol. Talk about picking up pennies front of steamroller. Whoever sold him the call option got completely run over and buried into the ground. Which is why naked call selling is terrible idea and constant covered call selling isn't always the best strategy. Theta gang has its place but I see some people here falling in love with selling covered calls for pennies and losing out on big potential stock gains. You have to be smart and pick and choose your moments and not always cap your max gains by selling covered calls every time you buy stocks.

Meanwhile bunch of Reddit people commenting on that thread are mega jealous and think the guy's a fake and photoshopping. lol. They're like it's impossible to have bought TSLA leap options so cheap. As someone who also bought 1/15/2021 TSLA call options last year, I can tell you TSLA options last summer were dirt cheap comparably speaking and that guy's options are not fake. People literally thought Tesla was going to go bankrupt. You had the mainstream media, CNBC, and TSLAQ all screaming how much of a fraud TSLA was and how they were 100% going bankrupt. It was literally insane how negative people were about Tesla. I remember how people on this very ATOT forum told me how stupid I was for believing and investing in TSLA. lol.

I remember last year when Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley came out with Sell rating and $10 price target for TSLA. He held public conference call with institutional investors and public why TSLA was only worth $10 and likely not going to survive. It's the only time I've ever heard of analyst publicly hosting this type of quarterly like conference call about a company. Pretty much completely trashing Tesla. I remember tuning in and listening to that bizarre call and thinking this is the craziest thing I've heard. I can't believe this stupid analyst is actually holding public conference call like this basically saying TSLA wouldn't likely survive. Like he was some final authority figure on Tesla and their business. Complete opposite of current environment where TSLA is the market darling. Guess what Adam Jonas price target for TSLA is today. The fool changed his price target last month to $540 or $2,700 presplit and changed his rating to Buy last month. And this was the same fool who spread all the TSLA bankruptcy FUD with $10 bear case price target on TSLA last summer. That's only $2,690 upward price target adjustment. And they want people to take them seriously. lol.

I'm not trying to promote people gambling their life savings betting on options or individual stocks. No one is going to make what this guy made on TSLA option ever again. But knowledge is power. Options are a tool. Leverage can be great when you don't have much money or you want high risk/high reward. And it's whole lot easier to make lot of money in the market when you already have lot of money. It's 100% true what they say. It takes money to make money. And that first $100k or the first $1 million is always the hardest and bitch to make. Most of us are not born with silver spoon in our mouth and don't start out with pile of money. So you have to either work hard, save, and invest conservatively in indexes for many years and decades or you have to get lucky like this guy and YOLO your way into riches. But his YOLO wasn't even YOLO because it was smart small bet on misplaced options which happens time to time in the market. And he only bet couple hundred on this life changing bet. But it was his diamond hands that took him to a million. Get rich or die trying.

 

[FelixDeCat]

^That was nice, but rare. For every winner like this one, there are millions of losers.

But even more recently, Palantir was an obvious and excellent options bet. I didnt think that it would almost triple in value that quickly.

If you think you have any more ideas on what might be long term options winners, feel free to share here.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Long term investing always beats short term trading, hands down. But finding the right companies to keep vs. those to just trade is has not been easy for me.

 

[ponyo]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/airbnb-plans-to-raise-the-price-target-range-for-its-ipo.html

Airbnb raising their IPO offering price. I'm pretty sure I'm going to be locked out from buying Airbnb shares because of valuation concerns. Love the company and its future prospects. Just think the valuation is getting bit rich and not leaving much upside for retail buyers at ever increasing IPO price. I expect this to open with big premium even with the raised price. No one wants to buy another Uber and bag hold for couple of years.

 

[ponyo]

Damn, Interactive Brokers site has been down all morning, and I still can't log in to my account to trade or do anything. And IB markets itself as "professional brokers." lol. I expect sites like Robinhood to go down. Not IB where I'm actually paying money to trade. lol. This is how you get automatic free diamond hand. You can't sell anything if you can't log in.

Good thing I have accounts at 4 other brokerages. That's my form of diversification. lol. Hold like 99% TSLA but diversify brokerages.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Petco is filing for an IPO lol.

I guess people are getting married less often and instead are opting for pets heh.

I honestly can't imagine thats a good buy though... At all.

 

[ponyo]

Petco is filing for an IPO lol.

I guess people are getting married less often and instead are opting for pets heh.

I honestly can't imagine thats a good buy though... At all.

I still remember Pets.com from the dot-com days. That was near the peak of dot-com mania. That's why I'm still confused about Chewy. Do people not remember Pets.com? I don't know anything about Chewy but I can't see it other than as Pets.com 2.0. Petco I have no opinion since I have no interest in it. I buy all my dog food and toys at Costco and other pet related stuff from Amazon.

But lot of time, it's the quiet and low hype IPOs that end up doing pretty well. There's way too much hype with Airbnb and DoorDash. I like Airbnb and would love to buy at the right price. DoorDash I have zero interest and will never buy. But my real sight is not on Airbnb but Roblox IPO. I'm hoping that doesn't get hyped up too much so I can establish big position for cheap. From the limited research I've done, I think Roblox has the potential to be big winner. But all that depend on the price I can buy in. So I'm hoping Wall Street and retail investors focus all their attention on Airbnb and DoorDash IPO and forget about Roblox. Then Roblox IPO price will be low and I can buy huge position for cheap.

 

[ponyo]

Damn, Lemonade (LMND) has been on fire lately. Stock up another $10 today. I only bought small starter position about a month ago for under $50 /shr It's pretty much doubled since then. And I sold Dec 17, 2021 $45 puts for $13.20 because IV was stupid high. Mark to market price on those puts are only $5.90 now so I'm up 56% on those leap puts I sold even though there is still 1 year time value left on the puts.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I still remember Pets.com from the dot-com days. That was near the peak of dot-com mania. That's why I'm still confused about Chewy. Do people not remember Pets.com? I don't know anything about Chewy but I can't see it other than as Pets.com 2.0. Petco I have no opinion since I have no interest in it. I buy all my dog food and toys at Costco and other pet related stuff from Amazon.

Yup. Frankly, I don't understand how Petsmart and/or Petco are still standing - let alone filing for an IPO.

Similarly, I get my food at Costco. They have a good generic grain-free Kirkland brand that works good with my dogs over the grocery store crap brands that have given our dog rashes.


Probably best thing going for them is service-based of things like pet grooming and boarding if they go on vacation or something.

 

[njdevilsfan87]

SPCE back above $30. I still don't see luxury space flight as a very lucrative business, but even if not so I can see the technology they develop being worth a lot. There's more market for space than people realize. I read a funny article from CNBC (counter-indicator) a few days ago saying to avoid this one... I'm like yeah millennial meme pump stock with actual potential growth is exactly why you buy it.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Sold BB, back in Spice for a trade.

 

[FelixDeCat]

SPCE back above $30. I still don't see luxury space flight as a very lucrative business, but even if not so I can see the technology they develop being worth a lot. There's more market for space than people realize. I read a funny article from CNBC (counter-indicator) a few days ago saying to avoid this one... I'm like yeah millennial meme pump stock with actual potential growth is exactly why you buy it.

You have no idea how much hype is worth, thats why I trade Spice. Especially when 30-40% is short.

You gotta know when to hold em, know when to fold em, know when to sell calls or just buy puts. You never watch Level II when your sittin' at the table.....

1000@30.50

Edit - Sold Friday $31 call for $3.40, bought $27 puts for super cheap insurance.

Might keep going higher, hard to say, launch is scheduled for Friday.

 

[ponyo]

I think Gene Munster is just little too excited about Tesla. lol. Munster is saying TSLA could hit $2,500 in the next 3 years. That would give Tesla almost $2.4 trillion market cap. That would make Tesla the most expensive company in the world. Apple is currently number one in the world with $2.1 trillion market cap. I would agree with Gene Munster if he had said the next 10 years. I think the next 3 years is too early. But I 100% believe the next 20 years will belong to Tesla. Once Tesla solves Full Self Driving (FSD), it will be game over for everyone else. And Tesla is very close to solving FSD. Maybe that will power TSLA to $2,500 and beyond.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I think Gene Munster is just little too excited about Tesla. lol. Munster is saying TSLA could hit $2,500 in the next 3 years. That would give Tesla almost $2.4 trillion market cap. That would make Tesla the most expensive company in the world. Apple is currently number one in the world with $2.1 trillion market cap. I would agree with Gene Munster if he had said the next 10 years. I think the next 3 years is too early. But I 100% believe the next 20 years will belong to Tesla. Once Tesla solves Full Self Driving (FSD), it will be game over for everyone else. And Tesla is very close to solving FSD. Maybe that will power TSLA to $2,500 and beyond.

What other markets do you think Tesla is going to dominate in besides their electric cars though?

The reason Amazon/Apple, etc... get such high values is because they are so... dominant and also able to branch out into other profitable places (e.g. AWS for Amazon, Whole Foods for retail, huge e-commerce distribution for expansion, you get the gist).

I'm also not talking Elon Musk - I'm asking what specifically is showing signs of being the next cash-cows for Tesla? (Not doubting you, I sincerely don't know).



.... And... flying taxi? Really?

 

[IronWing]

How’s the Amazon Whole Foods thing working out financially? From the consumer side, it looks like Amazon destroyed the brand. Maybe they’re still making money on it?

 

[ponyo]

What other markets do you think Tesla is going to dominate in besides their electric cars though?

The reason Amazon/Apple, etc... get such high values is because they are so... dominant and also able to branch out into other profitable places (e.g. AWS for Amazon, Whole Foods for retail, huge e-commerce distribution for expansion, you get the gist).

I'm also not talking Elon Musk - I'm asking what specifically is showing signs of being the next cash-cows for Tesla? (Not doubting you, I sincerely don't know).



.... And... flying taxi? Really?

Tesla is going to dominate EV and energy. Elon thinks energy will eventually be as big or maybe bigger than EV market.

But for now, let's just focus on EV market and how TSLA can get to $2 trillion valuation. Let's make some assumptions and do some simple back of the napkin math.

1) Tesla EV sales will grow 50% a year for the next 10 years. That means 500k cars sold in 2020. 5 million cars in 2025. 20 million cars in 2030. That's 50% yearly compounded growth. This is Elon Musk and Tesla's goal for this decade. Elon and Tesla goal for 2020 back in 2014 was 500k cars a year by 2020. And Tesla is about to hit that target they set in 2014. People said Elon was crazy and Tesla would never get close to hitting 500k vehicles 2020 target. Most analyst had less than 200k 2020 target for Tesla even in 2017. Who's right and laughing now? Tesla is going to hit 500k even during worldwide pandemic with their factory shut down for month and half.

2) So let's assume 20 million cars. $20k average selling price for each car. 25% gross margin. So that's $5k profit on each car. 20 million cars x $5k profit on each car = $100 billion profit a year.

$100 billion at 20 P/E is $2 trillion. Hey look! There's $2 trillion market cap just from selling EV. And even at reasonable P/E. Stupid P/E every moron thinks is so important and screaming TSLA is overvalued because it has high P/E now. Morons.

3) So there's clear path for TSLA to hit $2 trillion market cap just from selling EV. And if the market is generous and gives 30 P/E to TSLA, then that's $3 trillion market cap. And so on. But we haven't even accounted for Tesla's huge energy business. I believe Tesla will become a monster with their huge EV business this decade, 2020-2030. Then in the next decade, 2030-2040, Tesla's energy business will become equal big monster. Tesla solar and battery storage business will be gigantic. Almost every home and businesses will have solar roof/panels/MegaPacks/Powerwalls. And Tesla Autobidder software will buy and sell electricity and energy from everyone. Basically, everyone will have the potential to become their own utility and Tesla Autobidder software will manage and regulate everything. People will buy and sell power 24/7 and everything will be seamless. And Tesla will take a cut with their software.

4) Tesla will own the trucking market with Tesla Semi. FSD trucks will be the norm in shipping. Gigantic market Tesla will play huge role in.

5) Tesla insurance. Did you know that the CEO of Lemonade said he didn't want to enter auto insurance business because he think Tesla will eventually own that market in the future? I found that statement from Lemonade CEO scary and crazy at the same time since his own company is looking to disrupt the insurance industry using AI.

If 20% of the cars on the road are Tesla, then Tesla can capture huge portion of the auto insurance market with Tesla insurance. Tesla has more data on how their customers drive than anyone. So they can offer lower price on insurance. And Tesla own all their service centers and parts. Tesla can repair cars cheaper than anyone too. In the future, Tesla service centers will become cash cows.

6) Tesla owns their Supercharger networks. And they also install destination chargers too. Tesla will split revenue with owners at destination chargers while Tesla keeps all profits at their own Superchargers. Tesla is losing money on the Superchargers now as they build out but won't in the future.

7) Parts and service. Tesla is like Apple. You want stuff fixed on your Tesla? Tesla service centers. Tesla owns all their service centers. Service is pretty much where all car dealers make their profit. Legacy autos get nothing because they don't own the car dealers. Tesla owns everything so they will capture all the profit. It will be huge cash cow.

8) Tesla software ecosystem. You get millions of Tesla cars on the road and suddenly Tesla software apps make financial sense for developers. And Tesla will have reoccurring revenue stream like monthly FSD rentals. And software OTA upgrade like $2k Acceleration Boost which will make your car go faster. Or $xx.xx upgrade price to turn on rear heated seats. etc. FSD software alone will bring in billions for Tesla. 20% of new Tesla owners already opt for FSD which is $10k software upgrade. That's 100% margin profit for Tesla.

9) Used car sales. Since Tesla has no dealers to share profit with, Tesla can also control the used car market and make money again on used car sales. And they can use software upgrades which cost Tesla nothing to undercut everyone. Tesla already does this with used cars they sell on Tesla website. Pretty much all come with FSD and Acceleration Boost enabled. So they can charge higher prices for the used cars. You can't compete with that.

10) Robotaxi. Once Tesla solves FSD, Tesla Network will launch enabling Tesla owners to join the Robotaxi fleet and offer ridesharing service. That's when Uber and Lyft will be in big trouble.

There are more stuff like Tesla HVAC which Elon has said they will make. I'm pretty confident Tesla will attempt to sell you solar roof, battery HVAC, home automation to go along with EV. It will be whole turnkey package that controls everything in your home and office. And the scary thing is Elon and Tesla are crazy and ambitious enough to accomplish some or all these things.

 

[herm0016]

25% margin? Haha. They will grow 50%yoy for 10 years! Flying cars! Save humanity!