- Jul 9, 2009
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It's been my opinion for awhile that this year looks likely for a contested Democratic convention due to the changes that were made by the DNC and it's superdelegate rules after the 2016 election. In this article Nate Silver of 538 discusses how and why it may come to pass and what to keep an eye on in the Nevada and South Carolina primaries.
"But the two takeaways that the model feels most confident about are two things that I’m happy to vouch for:
Sanders Is The Front-Runner After New Hampshire, And A Contested Convention Has Become More Likely
The Democratic primary is in a confusing state at the moment. And our forecast model is a little confused, also. It’s making a couple of assumptions about how t…
fivethirtyeight.com
"But the two takeaways that the model feels most confident about are two things that I’m happy to vouch for:
- Model takeaway No. 1: Sen. Bernie Sanders is the most likely person to win the Democratic nomination.
- Model takeaway No. 2: The chance of there being no pledged delegate majority — which could potentially lead to a contested convention — is high and increasing."