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Official 2020 Democratic contested convention thread

imported_tajmahal

Diamond Member
Jul 9, 2009
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It's been my opinion for awhile that this year looks likely for a contested Democratic convention due to the changes that were made by the DNC and it's superdelegate rules after the 2016 election. In this article Nate Silver of 538 discusses how and why it may come to pass and what to keep an eye on in the Nevada and South Carolina primaries.


"But the two takeaways that the model feels most confident about are two things that I’m happy to vouch for:

  • Model takeaway No. 1: Sen. Bernie Sanders is the most likely person to win the Democratic nomination.
  • Model takeaway No. 2: The chance of there being no pledged delegate majority — which could potentially lead to a contested convention — is high and increasing."
 

imported_tajmahal

Diamond Member
Jul 9, 2009
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"After Sanders' win in Tuesday's New Hampshire primaries, FiveThirtyEight's projection bumped his chances of winning the Democratic presidential nomination up to 37 percent, or about one in three. Former Vice President Joe Biden is the next closest candidate with a distant 17 percent chance — but the possibility of a brokered convention is actually giving Sanders a run for his money. That outcome, which leaves the Democratic National Convention with no clear headliner, has a 36 percent chance of becoming reality, FiveThirtyEight forecasts. "

A virtual tie between a Sanders win or a brokered convention.
 
Nov 25, 2013
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Another article about a brokered convention.





Kinda makes me feel like the 60's again.


Milwaukee

Although Bernie's bound and gagged and they've chained him to a chair, won't you please come to Milwaukee for the help that you can bring.

apologies to C,S&N
Working hard for the Ministry of Truth and Revelation. Good boy.
 

imported_tajmahal

Diamond Member
Jul 9, 2009
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"Democrats may find themselves in a similar situation this year. Faced with the largest primary field in modern American history, Democrats still have eight candidates battling for their party’s line on the November ballot (despite 20 candidates -- 20! -- having already left the race). However, unlike its adversary, the Democratic Party relies on proportional allocation of delegates. Nate Silver provided a useful summary of how this process works at FiveThirtyEight, but it is worth reviewing briefly here:

  • Two types of delegates are allocated in the Democratic Party contests: statewide delegates (who are awarded based on the overall result in a particular state); and local delegates (who are awarded on the basis of congressional district, county, or state legislative district results, depending on the state).
  • Delegates are awarded proportionately to individuals who obtain at least 15% of the vote either statewide or at the local level. If you receive at least 15% statewide, you get a proportionate share of statewide delegates; if you receive a least 15% in one of the local jurisdictions, you receive a proportionate share of the delegates from that jurisdiction.
  • About 35% of delegates are awarded at the state level, and about 65% are awarded at the local level.
In addition, the 2020 party rules preclude superdelegates from voting on the first ballot at the convention. The implication is that to win the nomination outright, a Democrat will need to capture a majority of delegates during the actual primary contests. Yet the practice of proportional allocation casts doubt on the ability of any 2020 candidate to meet this exacting threshold. The 40.2% of contested votes Trump won in 2016 might prove insufficient for one of this year’s Democrats to capture the nomination, and as it stands, neither Bernie Sanders nor Pete Buttigieg nor Amy Klobuchar is anywhere close to that number."
 

Meghan54

Diamond Member
Oct 18, 2009
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So much faux feigned bullshit concern from someone who'd never vote Democratic....or probably never votes in the first place.

Seriously....OP, don't you get tired of spreading cow manure everywhere? Does your nose grow every time you post? It should.
 
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imported_tajmahal

Diamond Member
Jul 9, 2009
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So much faux feigned bullshit concern from someone who'd never vote Democratic....or probably never votes in the first place.

Seriously....OP, don't you get tired of spreading cow manure everywhere? Does your nose grow every time you post? It should.
I have in the past and i'm looking forward to early voting for Bernie in the Texas Primary.
 
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imported_tajmahal

Diamond Member
Jul 9, 2009
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"Democratic Party insiders have begun freaking out (justifiably, in my view) about the possibility Bernie Sanders will head the ticket. “Unless another Democrat rapidly consolidates support,” the New York Times notes, “Mr. Sanders could continue to win primaries and caucuses without broadening his political appeal, purely on the strength of his rock-solid base on the left — a prospect that alarms Democratic Party leaders who view Mr. Sanders and his slogan of democratic socialism as wildly risky bets in a general election.”

It has to be a brokered convention so the Democratic Party insiders can steal the nomination from Sen. Sanders.
 

repoman0

Platinum Member
Jun 17, 2010
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I have in the past and i'm looking forward to early voting for Bernie in the Texas Primary.
I’m no Bernie fan (though will gladly cast my vote for him in the general against the orange shitstain) but it will be fucking glorious if he wins the primary in your shitty state and then wrecks Dump in the general with your help.
 

imported_tajmahal

Diamond Member
Jul 9, 2009
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"
Although months away with an endless number of twist and turns yet to play out, there is a more than a one-third chance that no candidate wins a majority of the pledged delegates, according to FiveThirtyEight's forecast, which could result in a contested convention. Democrats fear how such a chaotic scenario would unfold on live T.V.: World War III on the floor of the Democratic National Convention.

"This thing is a mess," Chris Kofinis, a longtime Democratic strategist, told Newsweek. "The possibility that it could happen could really tear the party apart."

More importantly, a contested convention—or sometimes referred to as a "brokered" convention—means that although someone wins the plurality of delegates, they won't necessarily be the nominee. A first round of delegate voting with no majority candidate means the process spills over into round two, yielding the added wildcard of powerful superdelegates.

The scenario where a candidate wins the plurality but loses the nomination is perhaps most likely to occur for Sanders, a self-described Democratic socialist arousing deep fears within the moderate wing of the party about what his name and liberal policies at the top of the ticket could mean for Democrats across the country.

But snubbing Sanders of a victory—something many of his supporters believe took place in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, who was backed by the establishment and most superdelegates—in such a situation would fracture the party and potentially deny Democrats the ability to oust President Donald Trump from office."
 
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Nov 25, 2013
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"
Although months away with an endless number of twist and turns yet to play out, there is a more than a one-third chance that no candidate wins a majority of the pledged delegates, according to FiveThirtyEight's forecast, which could result in a contested convention. Democrats fear how such a chaotic scenario would unfold on live T.V.: World War III on the floor of the Democratic National Convention.

"This thing is a mess," Chris Kofinis, a longtime Democratic strategist, told Newsweek. "The possibility that it could happen could really tear the party apart."

More importantly, a contested convention—or sometimes referred to as a "brokered" convention—means that although someone wins the plurality of delegates, they won't necessarily be the nominee. A first round of delegate voting with no majority candidate means the process spills over into round two, yielding the added wildcard of powerful superdelegates.

The scenario where a candidate wins the plurality but loses the nomination is perhaps most likely to occur for Sanders, a self-described Democratic socialist arousing deep fears within the moderate wing of the party about what his name and liberal policies at the top of the ticket could mean for Democrats across the country.

But snubbing Sanders of a victory—something many of his supporters believe took place in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, who was backed by the establishment and most superdelegates—in such a situation would fracture the party and potentially deny Democrats the ability to oust President Donald Trump from office."
Part 398,244,195 of a continuing series brought to you by the Ministry of Truth and Revelation.
 

JEDIYoda

Lifer
Jul 13, 2005
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Since when can a thread based on propaganda be considered OFFICIAL????
This an OFFICIAL what??
 

imported_tajmahal

Diamond Member
Jul 9, 2009
8,976
977
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Since when can a thread based on propaganda be considered OFFICIAL????
This an OFFICIAL what??
What propaganda? As you can see i'm including a number of different articles from a variety of sources, not all of which are conservative at all.

There are a number of thread in this forum that have used "official" in the title, i was just going with tradition.
 

JEDIYoda

Lifer
Jul 13, 2005
33,162
2,933
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What propaganda? As you can see i'm including a number of different articles from a variety of sources, not all of which are conservative at all.

There are a number of thread in this forum that have used "official" in the title, i was just going with tradition.
But those threads actually had something legitimate to say!!
I can see the Agency for Truth, Justice and the Republican way is hard at work!!
 

imported_tajmahal

Diamond Member
Jul 9, 2009
8,976
977
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It’s official propaganda.
Again, do you think that Nate Silver at five thirty eight is propaganda? News to me.

Vox is now propaganda? Pretty funny, but not accurate.

TheHill is now a right wing propaganda source? Ummm no you are wrong again.

Oh yeah Newsweek another extreme site. Nope.

Please try to be at least a little accurate in this thread.
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
60,320
12,307
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I don't know about them, it seems some people are changing which party they vote for depending on what their State laws allow.
Crossing over to vote for the weakest general election Dem in the primary is a time honored GOP tradition, where allowed. That's why you're voting for Bernie, right?
 

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