***Official*** 2019 Stock Market Thread

[FelixDeCat]

Yeah I really don't understand these AMD ups and downs. There is really no reason for it because it seems like they are on solid footing and ahead of intel. All the publicity I have seen from them lately has been nothing but positive.

Fucking silly to drop that substantially after meeting expected earnings.. They did... what they anticipated/expected... And that equals a 15% drop? Stupid.

Hello - tariffs! All chip makers have been slammed by them. And now that the market is undergoing redistribution and some are flying to the safety of bonds, gold and low p/e dividend paying stocks (REITs, etc).

I think we are just getting started with the market sell off.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I don't know what that means. I just mean my monthly IRA contribution is set for the first of the month, and usually takes 24 hours to complete.

It was a joke. But since we are on topic, its probably good to average in. I contribute to my Roth every two weeks. I put in about 14% a year, including company match.

 

[zinfamous]

Any marketshare charts you've seen on the net is just DIY, which is a small part of desktop sales. Given that AMD doesn't give out specific desktop #'s it's hard to say how much revenue is actually increasing there. I think Wall Street is dissapointed they aren't doing better, especially given Intel's troubles.

right, that's what I said. OEM = desktop/laptop (mostly laptop) which AMD is lagging tremendously. Desktop is probably lagging, but that's because laptop is replacing it. Overall, you can look at OEM as the same bucket. Even within desktop, you will have consumer-facing systems with discreet GPUS, but that's still a tiny pile compared to the bulk orders for industry that are probably just APU-based systems. Again, that sector is probably falling due to companies moving towards laptops in many cases.

I think DIY and consumer desktop are probably stagnant overall. It's OEM distributing APU systems that AMD has struggled to compete in.

 

[jpiniero]

Again, that sector is probably falling due to companies moving towards laptops in many cases.

Desktop is a dying business but 2.7B is still 2.7B. AMD would kill for that kind of revenue.

Tech stocks in general tend to be extremely overpriced for some reason and AMD is no exception. Figuring out how much of Intel's business AMD can realistically get is hard however.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Wow

China retaliates with currency devaluation. Market crashing, gold booming.

Remember, devaluing the dollar has already been floated (see my previous posts).

Who knows where this goes.

 

[zinfamous]

I was told that Trade Wars are easy?

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I was told that Trade Wars are easy?

They would be if country leaders had half a brain (ours included)

Similar to Iran, countries would rather saw their own leg off in an effort to show power. Anyone with half a brain is laughing at them.

 

[FelixDeCat]

China has been a bad actor in terms of trade for a very long time. From product dumping (like furniture and steel), to IP theft and finally installing backdoors on hardware that allows spying by the communist government and their military, the PLA.

They have been emboldened over time and thought we did not have the GUTS to confront them. Now that we are putting out foot down, people are kicking, screaming and crying! No other president would have dared take on China. Now that we have, China realizes they really dont have many tools to fight back other than devalue.

I heard on CNBC that American companies are starting to diversify their supply chains away from China, so I think in the long term China will suffer massively.

 

[IronWing]

China has been a bad actor in terms of trade for a very long time. From product dumping (like furniture and steel), to IP theft and finally installing backdoors on hardware that allows spying by the communist government and their military, the PLA.

They have been emboldened over time and thought we did not have the GUTS to confront them. Now that we are putting out foot down, people are kicking, screaming and crying! No other president would have dared take on China. Now that we have, China realizes they really dont have many tools to fight back other than devalue.

I heard on CNBC that American companies are starting to diversify their supply chains away from China, so I think in the long term China will suffer massively for not bowing to our will.

Dude, this is the stock market thread. You're not supposed to bring your P&N persona out in this thread.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Dude, this is the stock market thread. You're not supposed to bring your P&N persona out in this thread.

The biggest thing influencing the market today is trade with China, which at the moment is political. We are trying to bring balance back into trade and get them to trade fairly. At the moment China is resisting change.

The entire stock market is and will be affected by what is going on now - there is no other way around it.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Kyle Bass is on CNBC saying that China was buying US dollars to *PROP UP* their currency. Now that they can no longer afford to do so, the yuan is dropping. And he theorizes that if China stops all controls, the YUAN WILL CRASH.

Again, who knows where this will go.....

 

[jpiniero]

Kyle Bass is on CNBC saying that China was buying US dollars to *PROP UP* their currency. Now that they can no longer afford to do so, the yuan is dropping. And he theorizes that if China stops all controls, the YUAN WILL CRASH.

Again, who knows where this will go.....

Ohh snap. People are so unprepared for anything like a layoff, it would get ugly really fast if an actual recession were to happen.

Current odds is 100% for another cut next time, 37% for a double cut.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Ohh snap. People are so unprepared for anything like a layoff, it would get ugly really fast if an actual recession were to happen.

Current odds is 100% for another cut next time, 37% for a double cut.

Hmmm....futures pointing to a recovery of most losses from yesterday ....surprise!!

Anyway, I hope we dont cut rates again so soon. We need to save our ammo.

 

[IronWing]

Cutting rates at all was pure political pandering, unsupported by any economic data.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Cutting rates at all was pure political pandering, unsupported by any economic data.

Not everyone agrees. The Fed even warned at the last meeting not to expect more cuts unless the data supports it. No more "insurance" cuts.

I think Wall St. is also pressuring the Fed.

 

[IronWing]

Not everyone agrees. The Fed even warned at the last meeting not to expect more cuts unless the data supports it. No more "insurance" cuts.

I think Wall St. is also pressuring the Fed.

Four former Fed Chairs think political pandering is a problem and authored a WSJ op-ed piece to state their concern.

 

[zinfamous]

Four former Fed Chairs think political pandering is a problem and authored a WSJ op-ed piece to state their concern.

Now we get to hear why their thoughts on the matter are less valid than those of a former blogger for The Right Stuff.

 

[KB]

This week the CBS/Viacom merger deal may be announced. Some put it at 50/50, I put it at 70%. I think its a decent chance for some arbitrage getting VIAB at 29 - 30 and CBS likely offering 32 - 42/share. If it doesn't go through VIAB shouldn't fall much.


https://seekingalpha.com/news/3486927-cbs-viacom-deal-50-percent-likely-come-week-report

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

This week the CBS/Viacom merger deal may be announced. Some put it at 50/50, I put it at 70%. I think its a decent chance for some arbitrage getting VIAB at 29 - 30 and CBS likely offering 32 - 42/share. If it doesn't go through VIAB shouldn't fall much.


https://seekingalpha.com/news/3486927-cbs-viacom-deal-50-percent-likely-come-week-report

Greaaaaaaaaaaat, more media conglomerates gobbling eachother up - we definitely need more of that.

 

[IronWing]

Greaaaaaaaaaaat, more media conglomerates gobbling eachother up - we definitely need more of that.

There can be only one.
https://www.apnews.com/a0409119ab71400b944662fc770593a0

 

[jpiniero]

Four former Fed Chairs think political pandering is a problem and authored a WSJ op-ed piece to state their concern.

It's true but they did mostly ignore Trump until the selloff in December.

I get that propping up the stock market isn't supposed to be the Fed's job, but it is now.

 

[FelixDeCat]

People are starting to think the stock market is not supposed to correct anymore, that America can joyfully borrow itself into default, the Fed can print dollars until you need $100 to buy a loaf of bread and nobody gives a shit about the consequences just as long as they make a few extra points on the market this year.

And when America has borrowed its last dollar, when the Fed is out of ammo trying to manipulate the market upwards for no justifiable reason.....exactly WTF do people think is going to happen? Especially to those who dont even own stocks? And this assumes we dont not have anything extraordinary happen before then that will require trillions to rebuild. Our goose will be cooked.

But hey, the stock market hit all time highs once! Remember?!

 

[IronWing]

People are starting to think the stock market is not supposed to correct anymore, that America can joyfully borrow itself into default, the Fed can print dollars until you need $100 to buy a loaf of bread and nobody gives a shit about the consequences just as long as they make a few extra points on the market this year.

And when America has borrowed its last dollar, when the Fed is out of ammo trying to manipulate the market upwards for no justifiable reason.....exactly WTF do people think is going to happen? Especially to those who dont even own stocks? And this assumes we dont not have anything extraordinary happen before then that will require trillions to rebuild. Our goose will be cooked.

But hey, the stock market hit all time highs once! Remember?!

You're preaching to the choir. The Fed rate cut was ridiculous and political. No point saving for the future when the Feds are handing out money for free.

 

[FelixDeCat]

You're preaching to the choir. The Fed rate cut was ridiculous and political. No point saving for the future when the Feds are handing out money for free.

And that is exactly why gold hit a new 7 year new high of $1,520 an ounce today because of the devaluation of the Yuan. Gold is expected to hit $2,000 an ounce sometime late this year or early next.

Why would you keep more than $1,000 in cash in your bank account? The dollar is worth less and less everyday.

 

[Saylick]

Did anyone buy AMD calls on Monday? If so, congratulations to you!