***Official*** 2019 Stock Market Thread

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IronWing

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
69,007
26,887
136
DOW flat to modestly up overall with an absolutely wild ride getting there (end at 24k).

BitCoin at US$1500 (some people can't let go of a bad idea)

Oil at $70/barrel

Gold at $1600/oz

Vinegar at $56/gal
 
Mai72

Mai72

Lifer
Sep 12, 2012
11,578
1,741
126
I hope stocks tank. Really tank, because I'm now in a position to buy.
 
Charmonium

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
8,908
2,412
136
The market is going to rally. I would say the Dow will be up by 1-2k points by June. It won't be a dead cat bounce but we're not going to see new highs either. It will be a good opportunity to GTFO of Dodge for a year or so.

We're definitely heading for a recession, but timing is everything and that could take anywhere from 6 months to 2 years. I don't think it will be a particularly bad or long one but if you want to try to time the market, this will be your chance.

The one thing that could extend that time frame is if the fed caves to pressure from Trump and curtails its asset selling. That will free up liquidity that will go back into the market. If they do that, there is good chance you will see some moderate inflation but it won't be stagflation. I don't think the money multiplier would support that at this point.
 
S

s0me0nesmind1

Lifer
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
Charmonium said:
The market is going to rally. I would say the Dow will be up by 1-2k points by June. It won't be a dead cat bounce but we're not going to see new highs either. It will be a good opportunity to GTFO of Dodge for a year or so.

We're definitely heading for a recession, but timing is everything and that could take anywhere from 6 months to 2 years. I don't think it will be a particularly bad or long one but if you want to try to time the market, this will be your chance.

The one thing that could extend that time frame is if the fed caves to pressure from Trump and curtails its asset selling. That will free up liquidity that will go back into the market. If they do that, there is good chance you will see some moderate inflation but it won't be stagflation. I don't think the money multiplier would support that at this point.
Click to expand...

"I know how to catch a falling knife!"

Said everyone ever....
 
JEDI

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
30,160
3,300
126
1st trading day of 2019.
premarket (8am): Dow -350points :eek:
 
J

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,584
5,206
136
s0me0nesmind1 said:
Interesting. Looks like this recession is going to mostly stem around globalism and how it affects the US... Which is basically the opposite of the previous 2008 US crash where it affected all the other global economies.
Click to expand...

Apple made it sound like it was almost an entirely China issue.

Funny though, Apple did also blame the $29 battery replacement, implying that yes people buy new phones because their battery is dying.
 
J

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,584
5,206
136
Ooh, Cook is hosting an employee town hall about the selloff. Not because of the falling iPhone sales per se, but because so much of the typical SV tech company's compensation is based on stock. Apple employees are probally going to quit, especially when you figure plenty of them need the stock income to cover the outrageous housing costs there. Something to watch.
 
ponyo

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
repoman0

repoman0

Diamond Member
Jun 17, 2010
4,470
3,311
136
It'll be fun to watch TSLA over the next year or two as traditional automakers start to put out some EVs of their own. Audi has some really nice looking concepts. The BMW i4 renders look okay, if they improve the weird grill design I could see one in my future.

I also never realized that there are other DC fast chargers besides Tesla superchargers and the network is quite solid already. The other standards are planning to hit 350 kW (compared to 120 at superchargers) which would fully charge a typical ~300 mile range EV battery in about 20 minutes.

A bonus: traditional automakers know how to fit a car together properly so there aren't half inch gaps everywhere
 
ponyo

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
repoman0 said:
It'll be fun to watch TSLA over the next year or two as traditional automakers start to put out some EVs of their own. Audi has some really nice looking concepts. The BMW i4 renders look okay, if they improve the weird grill design I could see one in my future.

I also never realized that there are other DC fast chargers besides Tesla superchargers and the network is quite solid already. The other standards are planning to hit 350 kW (compared to 120 at superchargers) which would fully charge a typical ~300 mile range EV battery in about 20 minutes.

A bonus: traditional automakers know how to fit a car together properly so there aren't half inch gaps everywhere
Click to expand...
 
repoman0

repoman0

Diamond Member
Jun 17, 2010
4,470
3,311
136
ponyo said:
Click to expand...

Not watching a 14 minute shill video. I'll just say that I can't wait to buy an EV that's not an ugly and poorly put together Tesla. The i4 is coming in 2021 with 375 miles of range .. pretty good timing to retire my trusty 04 330xi around its 20th birthday.

edit: watched most of it because I got bored at work :p Not bad in the end. I disagree with many of his points and agree with some. He talks a lot about technology and says that the car should be a smartphone on wheels -- highly disagree and that's literally one of the reasons I won't buy a Tesla. Give me a nice looking refined dashboard with classic gauges, dials/controls and a small screen. I don't want to push software updates to my car, I want to drive it. He's right about the ugliness of some of the first-pass EVs of regular carmakers and posted this video about two weeks before the i4 concept was announced. He complains a lot about 200 mile range, but it looks like the i4 is coming out with 375 and 435. BMW also has incredibly solid part support where Tesla is totally unproven and apparently can be very difficult and time consuming to get replacement parts. I can have any part for my two 15 year old BMWs at my door in a day or two and the same goes for owners of 1980s E30s. Any old body shop can replace panels and doors within a week if someone hits me and any mechanic can work on it.

Oh and don't put the self driving (aka data collection) hardware in my car please, thanks.
 
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ponyo

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
The concept BMW i4 range is based on NEDC numbers. If you want to compare apples to apples, you have to convert it to EPA range. Once you do that, the i4 range will be closer to the 310 miles EPA of the Model 3. So 4 years later, BMW will have something with similar range to the current Model 3 on the market. Which is right about the ballpark considering the 3-5 years lead Tesla has on everyone else.
 
repoman0

repoman0

Diamond Member
Jun 17, 2010
4,470
3,311
136
ponyo said:
The concept BMW i4 range is based on NEDC numbers. If you want to compare apples to apples, you have to convert it to EPA range. Once you do that, the i4 range will be closer to the 310 miles EPA of the Model 3. So 4 years later, BMW will have something with similar range to the current Model 3 on the market. Which is right about the ballpark considering the 3-5 years lead Tesla has on everyone else.
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The battery packs supposedly will be 90kWh and 120kWh for the two range packages. Considering electric motor efficiency will be largely similar (>90%) and weight will be similar, it depends basically on what BMW can pull off for coefficient of drag. The model 3 is rated at 310 miles for 75 kWh so I'd be extremely surprised if BMW can't beat that by a significant amount with 60% more battery capacity.

edit: might have an 80 kWh battery in which case I agree with you. That said, there's no magic when it comes to Li-ion batteries. This kind of capacity is big and heavy. We'll see if something better comes out but for now it is what it is.
 
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J

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,584
5,206
136
Hillariously, there were a couple of upgrades of Intel today. Not so sure about that, could be a good opening for a short opportunity...
 
J

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,584
5,206
136
Oh snap, jobs report was "good"... currently up premarket but once it opens for real it should end red since it will give more ammo to the Feds to raise rates.
 
MomentsofSanity

MomentsofSanity

Lifer
Jan 25, 2011
16,589
8,671
146
jpiniero said:
Oh snap, jobs report was "good"... currently up premarket but once it opens for real it should end red since it will give more ammo to the Feds to raise rates.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't hold your breath on a red day at the close. A reminder that the economy itself remains strong will probably drive some buyers to pick things up on the down market today.

My trade terminal is a sea of green right now.
 
J

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,584
5,206
136
MomentsofSanity said:
I wouldn't hold your breath on a red day at the close. A reminder that the economy itself remains strong will probably drive some buyers to pick things up on the down market today.
Click to expand...

Turns out Powell made some comments today which could be seen as dovish.
 
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