***Official*** 2018 Stock Market Thread

[FIVR]

I agree the volatility in this market is unnerving (at the moment). Still short MU $52 call spread, and decided to re-enter QQQ $150x$152 short puts before the close. Hoping for slight bounce now that the European Easter holiday is over. Honesty though, I dont know where we will be by the end of the week.

Double bottom yesterday?


Seems like futures are green

 

[FelixDeCat]

Double bottom yesterday?


Seems like futures are green

Would look like a nice time to buy. But being careful.

 

[KB]

After going in big at the bottom of the first drop, I am losing confidence here. I can see Trump's ego taking us to another deep recession. We will see this Friday if he adds $60 billion in tariffs as he said he would. If he does, prepare for big drops.

 

[Ns1]

Move money to t bills on Thursday. Got it.

 

[DietDrThunder]

Can anyone find what the estimated 1 year target price is for DropBox (DBX)? I've been trying to do some research on my brokerage account and elsewhere, but I'm unable to find anything.

 

[Pantoot]

Can anyone find what the estimated 1 year target price is for DropBox (DBX)? I've been trying to do some research on my brokerage account and elsewhere, but I'm unable to find anything.

Only one target I found was from 2 weeks ago https://www.barrons.com/articles/ha...does-this-unicorn-have-more-to-run-1521748989

“I think they are still in the very early stages of the market,” Rishi Jaluria of D.A. Davidson tells Barron’s. Rishi, the source of the revenue estimates provided above, was the first on the Street to start coverage of the stock, on Wednesday when he assigned it a Buy rating, and a $22 price target.

 

[DietDrThunder]

Only one target I found was from 2 weeks ago https://www.barrons.com/articles/ha...does-this-unicorn-have-more-to-run-1521748989

“I think they are still in the very early stages of the market,” Rishi Jaluria of D.A. Davidson tells Barron’s. Rishi, the source of the revenue estimates provided above, was the first on the Street to start coverage of the stock, on Wednesday when he assigned it a Buy rating, and a $22 price target.

Well, I won't be buying this stock any time soon. Do you mean that if the stock drops to $22, then it is a buy? It is $30.66 as of this posting.

 

[dullard]

I already explained how to trade AMD. I basically gave you a roadmap to 40%+ returns even if the stock goes down all year. If you aren't making money trading AMD then you better have something else you're making 40% or better returns on.

So, you said it was going to $20/share which didn't happen. But you also have some complex series of calls, puts, and hocus pocus to get 40% returns if executed perfectly. I'd rather have just shorted it one of it's many trips above $14/share and get the 35% gains that have occurred in the last 6 months doing the opposite of what you claim will happen to the share price. Sell high, buy low is far easier that whatever you think that you have explained in your "roadmap".

 

[Pantoot]

Well, I won't be buying this stock any time soon. Do you mean that if the stock drops to $22, then it is a buy? It is $30.66 as of this posting.

Not really, no, it just means that this guy made a guess at the 12 month price of the stock. It's up to you to decide if his estimate is accurate.
Tipranks says: "If you copied Rishi Jaluria's ratings since 2015 and opened each position for the duration of 1 Year:67% of your transactions would have been profitable with an average return of 13.8%"

 

[FIVR]

I'm buying up these AMD Jan 2020 $8 calls @ ~3.30 each. There is no way I lose money on these. AMD would have to stay under $10 for 2 years lol

 

[FIVR]

So, you said it was going to $20/share which didn't happen. But you also have some complex series of calls, puts, and hocus pocus to get 40% returns if executed perfectly. I'd rather have just shorted it one of it's many trips above $14/share and get the 35% gains that have occurred in the last 6 months doing the opposite of what you claim will happen to the share price. Sell high, buy low is far easier that whatever you think that you have explained in your "roadmap".

I said it should be $20. I've explained to you, repeatedly, that I cannot predict the future. I merely make educated guesses and as you can see sometimes I am right and sometimes I am wrong.


If you think AMD is a good short target, have at it. I shorted (sold calls) at $13 and $12 and $11.50 and I have some short calls open now that are all up 95-97% but they are small premiums. They add up over time though.

 

[DietDrThunder]

I'm buying up these AMD Jan 2020 $8 calls @ ~3.30 each. There is no way I lose money on these. AMD would have to stay under $10 for 2 years lol

So I never have traded puts and calls. Please explain how the situation you are implementing actually works.

 

[FIVR]

So I never have traded puts and calls. Please explain how the situation you are implementing actually works.

Works like this:

Check AMD option chain - see prices
Check greeks and underlying movement
Forecast future price movements based on current and forecast market conditions
Purchase option which offers the highest prospective gains for your targeted risk.

In this case, I am not sure how AMD will trade over the next 6-12 months and AMD is currently at ~9.50. The options prices for 2020 $8 and $10 calls are 3.40 and 2.60 respectively (3.40 per share x 100 shares = $340 total cost of contract).

Given that, the break even for the intrinsic value of the $8 call option will be 11.40 ($8 strike + 3.40 premium). The intrinsic value break even for the $10 calls is 12.60 ($10 strike + 2.60) so I decide to buy the $8 strike because they are both reasonably priced and have the same theta, and I think the $2 lower strike is worth the extra $1 in premium.

As long as AMD goes over 11.40 at some point in the next 2 years, I will make money. If it does so soon then the price of the option will rise rapidly due to the large amount of theta remaining. For example, if AMD went to $11 in 30 days the option would rise ~30% in value (off the top of my head, no black scholes).

That's basically how it works for me and single leg leap calls.

 

[dullard]

I said it should be $20. I've explained to you, repeatedly, that I cannot predict the future. I merely make educated guesses and as you can see sometimes I am right and sometimes I am wrong.

My complaint with you (as I've said before) is that you are way overly confident, then when proven wrong, you move the goal post. At first it was:

Watch an learn - AMD will be $20 in less than 6 months while INTC will be back in the 30s if they're lucky.

But now it is "it should be $20".

Do you not understand why we have trouble following you? There is a massive difference between "watch an learn, will be" and "should be". Your posts all start out with extreme confidence:

There is no way I lose money on these.

I have figured out the perfect way to trade AMD: Long AMD shares

Where is that Dullard fellow who said he would call me out on my price targets for AMD? Probably hiding under a rock..Too easy.

I'm buying January 2019 INTC 28 Puts and I'm going to ride intel until its fabs get bought out. What a great time to be an investor! Even if the market tanks, I will make bank off of INTC's downfall. If it goes up, I make bank on AMD's rise. I can't lose.

But then when the opposite occurs from your "I can't lose" posts, suddenly you claim that you "cannot predict the future".

So which is it? You can't lose? Or you can't predict the future? Before the fact, you are all confidence. After the fact, suddenly you didn't buy what you said to buy:

Didn't end up buying them because I'm still holding the AMD calls for more gains.

Where are those more AMD gains? AMD was $14.12/share when you said you are holding your AMD calls. They are now at $9.52/share. I'm sure you must have magically sold those calls.

I'm just warning you to realize that yes, you can lose. No, you aren't in a perfect way to trade. No it isn't too easy. All trading strategies work--until they don't. I'm just worried that you are not flexible enough to realize when your strategy won't work any more. I'm calling you out on it because you asked me to (see above), but also because I honestly don't want to see people losing money over some online poster who is way over confident.

 

[Ns1]

After going in big at the bottom of the first drop, I am losing confidence here. I can see Trump's ego taking us to another deep recession. We will see this Friday if he adds $60 billion in tariffs as he said he would. If he does, prepare for big drops.

I guess Christmas came early.

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Releases/301FRN.pdf
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-us-china-trade-fight-20180403-story.html

 

[FIVR]

My complaint with you (as I've said before) is that you are way overly confident, then when proven wrong, you move the goal post. At first it was:

But now it is "it should be $20".

Do you not understand why we have trouble following you? There is a massive difference between "watch an learn, will be" and "should be". Your posts all start out with extreme confidence:




But then when the opposite occurs from your "I can't lose" posts, suddenly you claim that you "cannot predict the future".

So which is it? You can't lose? Or you can't predict the future? Before the fact, you are all confidence. After the fact, suddenly you didn't buy what you said to buy:

Where are those more AMD gains? AMD was $14.12/share when you said you are holding your AMD calls. They are now at $9.52/share. I'm sure you must have magically sold those calls.

I'm just warning you to realize that yes, you can lose. No, you aren't in a perfect way to trade. No it isn't too easy. All trading strategies work--until they don't. I'm just worried that you are not flexible enough to realize when your strategy won't work any more. I'm calling you out on it because you asked me to (see above), but also because I honestly don't want to see people losing money over some online poster who is way over confident.

Dude, if you made as much money as I do doing this you'd probably be overconfident too. Obviously you mostly lose money and are very concerned about it.

I posted my positions. I have been quite open about when I've lost and when I've made money. My most recent trade was up 70% and then I got stop-lossed out at -50%. It happens. I don't worry about losing a few pennies here and there on one out of 3 of my trading accounts.

Nonetheless, thank you for your concern. You worrisome sentiments about my financial well being are truly touching.

 

[DietDrThunder]

I guess Christmas came early.

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Releases/301FRN.pdf
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-us-china-trade-fight-20180403-story.html

Cool! Trade wars are good! Hopefully I’ll get some bargains.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Cool! Trade wars are good! Hopefully I’ll get some bargains.

Ruh roh. Trump outlines plans to target more Chinese imports. Will take effect in June unless China bows to our supremacy.

Futures off .50%.

 

[DietDrThunder]

Ruh roh. Trump outlines plans to target more Chinese imports. Will take effect in June unless China bows to our supremacy.

Futures off .50%.

 

[zinfamous]

Ruh roh. Trump outlines plans to target more Chinese imports. Will take effect in June unless China bows to our supremacy.

Futures off .50%.

yeah, but winning.

 

[woodman1999]

Futures off just a tad more than 50bps now... another $50b in tariffs from China.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Futures off just a tad more than 50bps now... another $50b in tariffs from China.

Dont buy this one either.

 

[jpiniero]

I'm skeptical of the Chinese tariffs having any kind of real impact on the US, outside of the tech companies. I'm more concerned about the deficit TBH.

 

[FIVR]

so we are back down to where we were. It's almost like Trump is trying to crash the market... and he's having a hard time getting it to break into bear market territory.


Eventually his antics will outweigh the good economic news that keeps getting reported over and over. Not looking good.

 

[FIVR]

It would be so easy to get rich if you were able to know when Trump was going to tweet what. I bet there are twitter employees with brokerage accounts who are becoming millionaires today. They could delay his tweets by a few seconds, set up a short position and become millionaires in no time.