***Official*** 2018 Stock Market Thread

[ImpulsE69]

I jumped in WMT on Friday to see if it goes back up to $100.

On the whole lately the gains seem to just drain away by close so nothing real appealing to get into other than some crazy daily runners.

 

[FIVR]

Crypto is a big part of their revenue stream right now. Need Intel to continue to screw up for Epyc to do well.

How did intel "screw up" Xeon?


They've been completely dominant and they just released their highest performance increase yet with Skylake-SP.

Intel has executed perfectly with Xeon, far better than they have with desktop, notebook, or mobile. The problem is: AMD simply made a better product with a fraction of their resources.

 

[dasherHampton]

Everything I'm tracking is red.

The whole damn page. lol Luckily that doesn't happen often.

 

[JEDI]

holy -150 for nasdaq?!?!
since when does nasdaq go triple digits (in either direction)??

All because of facebook?!?!?!
wait.. is facebook even on the nasdaq?

hopefully corp bonds gain. (PLEASE)

 

[dasherHampton]

Wait - some green just popped up!

GE of all things.

edit - nevermind. It was bad a bad ticker.

 

[dasherHampton]

BLUE wasn't ready for a bounce but it's getting primed.

Fall, baby, fall. I'll catch you.

Never in my wildest dreams could I have imagined EEP in RIG/NBR territory.

 

[dasherHampton]

And OLED proves, yet again, that holding a bounce stock for more than a day can be incredibly risky.

 

[dasherHampton]

If this doesn't turn around soon I'm out for the day.

Reload for tomorrow morning.

 

[FIVR]

Totally slaughtered my Tesla calls. Hopefully i can get out of those unscathed (have until june 15).


AMD holding up like a champ. At one point it went green 2%


I averaged down on the Tesla calls. I refuse to believe that Elon will allow SP to languish under 330 for much longer. Tweets and 340$/share are on the way

 

[dasherHampton]

I should have kept watching BLUE. It did bounce around 2:30 from $190 to $195.

Maybe there's more there.

 

[jpiniero]

How did intel "screw up" Xeon?

Intel's 10 nm is screwed up.

I averaged down on the Tesla calls. I refuse to believe that Elon will allow SP to languish under 330 for much longer. Tweets and 340$/share are on the way

Isn't Tesla going to have to do a capital raise soonish (eg: issue stock) because they are running out of cash? Plus they continue to be badly missing production estimates on the 3.

 

[AznAnarchy99]

Think OLED will do a bounce up soon? They tanked on a rumor about something that Apple won't have out in a long time.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[dasherHampton]

Yeah they dropped on the Apple news.

There is always a certain amount of market overreaction built into drops like these. The question is, obviously, how much?

I've made a small fortune watching bounce stocks since I've been trading. Big players like hedge funds can't afford to miss out on these kinds of buying opportunities so they'll throw some money at the stock on spec alone. The key is to watch it carefully at open. It might bounce some tomorrow, it might be delayed a day or two.

It might never come back. Welcome to the market.

I usually try to buy 1000 shares of a stock I deem bounce-worthy. NEVER, EVER buy to open. Always watch the groove play out. And then, if you do buy in - eyes glued to the monitor. You might have to sell at a moment's notice. These things can happen at light speed.

I target at least a $2000 profit off of a bounce but I of course take any profit I can get if things get hairy.

 

[FIVR]

Intel's 10 nm is screwed up.



Isn't Tesla going to have to do a capital raise soonish (eg: issue stock) because they are running out of cash? Plus they continue to be badly missing production estimates on the 3.

This "running out of cash" and "Missing production targets" is meaningless quibbling. All of that short term disappointment is priced into the stock already. Tesla longs are all in the stock for a decade or more, they don't care where it goes in the short term. That's why it has a price floor of $300 and ignores all analyst downgrades and bearish sentiment.


Tesla will announce a new product or Elon will announce some spectacular new project on twitter and TSLA will go to $380+ in no time. In 3 years when Tesla can finally fill the millions of cars orders they receive on a yearly basis and they are the biggest car manufacturer in the US and their stock is $1600 a share like amazon you will think back and say "man, I shouldn't have doubted that Musk guy. I probably should've realized he was something special when he started building rockets, but oh well!"

 

[DietDrThunder]

This "running out of cash" and "Missing production targets" is meaningless quibbling. All of that short term disappointment is priced into the stock already. Tesla longs are all in the stock for a decade or more, they don't care where it goes in the short term. That's why it has a price floor of $300 and ignores all analyst downgrades and bearish sentiment.


Tesla will announce a new product or Elon will announce some spectacular new project on twitter and TSLA will go to $380+ in no time. In 3 years when Tesla can finally fill the millions of cars orders they receive on a yearly basis and they are the biggest car manufacturer in the US and their stock is $1600 a share like amazon you will think back and say "man, I shouldn't have doubted that Musk guy. I probably should've realized he was something special when he started building rockets, but oh well!"

Other than SpaceX, I'm going to doubt Elon and Tesla. I'm not saying he is going to fail, but looking at how much debt Tesla has accumulated and how much more debt they are going to issue, it is a no brainer for me to not invest. Also, these $35K priced Tesla Model 3's don't exist. Everyone of them have been loaded with options to where the price is closer to $70K. Seeing that they have only bled money (sure, they've had a couple of quarters that were profitable, but mostly running huge losses), I believe the floor of $300 is WAY too high. Of course Mr. Marketer will announce some other fantastic product to deliver to try and keep the stock price up. They used to be called snake oil salesmen. Someone else on this site made the comment that Elon could make another company, bottle his sweat and sell it as Musk's musk. In a year he would IPO the company and make billions.

It is my opinion that his long term goal is to get production going, then Elon will try and sell the company to Ford or GM.

 

[FIVR]

Other than SpaceX, I'm going to doubt Elon and Tesla. I'm not saying he is going to fail, but looking at how much debt Tesla has accumulated and how much more debt they are going to issue, it is a no brainer for me to not invest. Also, these $35K priced Tesla Model 3's don't exist. Everyone of them have been loaded with options to where the price is closer to $70K. Seeing that they have only bled money (sure, they've had a couple of quarters that were profitable, but mostly running huge losses), I believe the floor of $300 is WAY too high. Of course Mr. Marketer will announce some other fantastic product to deliver to try and keep the stock price up. They used to be called snake oil salesmen. Someone else on this site made the comment that Elon could make another company, bottle his sweat and sell it as Musk's musk. In a year he would IPO the company and make billions.

It is my opinion that his long term goal is to get production going, then Elon will try and sell the company to Ford or GM.

Have you seen how much debt Ford has? Lol.

Tesla is fine dude. They have plenty of operating income and they have plenty of cash available from investors if they need it. Thousands of Model S and X are going out of warranty every year and Tesla earns 57% service margins (vs 8% industry average at Ford and GM). The huge liability of service revenue will eventually turn into a huge asset. These cars are also forecast to last 2-3x longer than ICE cars and thus that revenue will continue to be reaped solely by Tesla (unlike ICE cars who lose revenue to dealers and parts makers) for decades to come. Tesla will be HUGE cash cow in 10 years.

 

[FIVR]

I bought some more IIVI calls on the dip yesterday (this time Oct $50 strike). Felt stupid until this morning. Up like 3% pre market.

 

[dasherHampton]

I bought in to OLED at 14.05.
Lets see how this goes.

 

[DietDrThunder]

Have you seen how much debt Ford has? Lol.

Tesla is fine dude. They have plenty of operating income and they have plenty of cash available from investors if they need it. Thousands of Model S and X are going out of warranty every year and Tesla earns 57% service margins (vs 8% industry average at Ford and GM). The huge liability of service revenue will eventually turn into a huge asset. These cars are also forecast to last 2-3x longer than ICE cars and thus that revenue will continue to be reaped solely by Tesla (unlike ICE cars who lose revenue to dealers and parts makers) for decades to come. Tesla will be HUGE cash cow in 10 years.

I didn't say Ford or GM WOULD buy Tesla, I said Tesla would try and sell to Ford or GM. To be honest, I wouldn't buy stock in any automaker.

As far as Tesla's lasting 2-3x longer than ICE cars, that is kind of funny. The average age of automobiles on the road today is 11 years. Do you honestly believe people will really want a Tesla that is 22 to 33 years old? I'm one of those people that keeps automobiles between 16 and 19 years and I know that vehicles this age aren't worth much if anything at all. I'd never think about replacing the battery pack on a vehicle of that age. Replacing the battery packs is going to be a very expensive undertaking at $12,000 in today's dollars. Not too many people are going to want to replace the battery pack on a 22 year old vehicle at that price considering there are going to be other major maintenance items that will have to be addressed. People are also not going to want to pay for the high price of repairs through Tesla, just like the majority of people today do not use an auto dealership to have repairs made that aren't under warranty. There are plenty of independent garages that will do the work at labor rates much less than a dealership charges. So if there is a high expense to repair a Tesla, this will effect sales in the long run and cause these vehicles to depreciate at a higher rate.

Now just look at their net income over the past 4 years.
2017 ($1,961,400), 2016 ($674,914), 2015 ($888,663), 2014 ($294,040). I know they are a start-up automaker, but I see a trend of more losses ahead.

 

[dasherHampton]

That was short. Sold at 15.10.

A profit is a profit is a profit.

 

[DietDrThunder]

That was short. Sold at 15.10.

A profit is a profit is a profit.

dasherHampton, welcome to the Ferengi Commerce Authority as you are now a full fledged member by quoting a Ferengi Rule of Acquisition. Also, remember rule #9 - "Opportunity, plus instinct, equals profit."

 

[dasherHampton]

Guess I should have been a little more patient with OLED but so be it.

How can I put it in mathematical terms?

(My satisfaction with making a profit) + (My desire to not potentially lose money)
>
(My desire to possibly make more profit) - (The volatility of the stock I'm invested in)

Did I get that right?

 

[DietDrThunder]

Guess I should have been a little more patient with OLED but so be it.

How can I put it in mathematical terms?

(My satisfaction with making a profit) + (My desire to not potentially lose money)
>
(My desire to possibly make more profit) - (The volatility of the stock I'm invested in)

Did I get that right?

So anotherwords, Ferengi Rule of Acquisition #43 - "Feed your greed, but not enough to choke it." or rule #101 - "Profit trumps emotion."

 

[dasherHampton]

I'm liking this Ferengi thing.

Ugh. Looks like I'll have to start watching GE.

 

[dasherHampton]

You know what? Screw it. I'm not selling GE.

I had raised my sell point from 13 to 13.5 but I'm tossing it out the window. I'm going to train myself to go long with a highly speculative stock. It can't possibly go to zero, can it?

Consider it tuition.