***Official*** 2018 Stock Market Thread

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DietDrThunder

Platinum Member
Apr 6, 2001
2,262
326
126
So has anyone investigated whether or not AMD might be at a buy point? I know there was the report on the security flaws found in their new Ryzen chipsets, but their stock has dropped since the report was released. I'm not in the know on AMD's product road map, and I haven't started any real research into AMD. I'm just wondering if it is worth my effort into starting my research.
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,693
566
136
I've always considered AMD a pure gambler's stock. I've dabbled in it but never really made any profit.

FIVR seems to know the stock. Maybe he can chime in.
 

FIVR

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2016
3,753
911
106
So has anyone investigated whether or not AMD might be at a buy point? I know there was the report on the security flaws found in their new Ryzen chipsets, but their stock has dropped since the report was released. I'm not in the know on AMD's product road map, and I haven't started any real research into AMD. I'm just wondering if it is worth my effort into starting my research.


The stock is highly manipulated right now but if you are looking for a good stock to sell short term calls on AMD is it.


My AMD positions work like this:

I usually hold anywhere from 10k to 30k AMD shares at any one point in time. Every week on monday I set limit Sell To Open orders on calls that expire the following friday. I usually set them such that AMD would have to move more than 1$ in SP within the week for me to lose profit. This monday I set a limit STO order for 12.50 March 16 expiry calls @ .30 and it filled at .46 because of all the manipulation by CTS and Viceroy research. I made $6000 premium selling 100 those 12.50 calls on my 10k current shares.


If AMD ends up spiking over 1$ and I get exercised (unlikely) then I make $10k . If AMD doesn't and just trades flat, I make the contract premium of $6k (This is about 3-6x what you normally get from doing this), which is very likely.


I hold AMD 2019 and 2020 LEAP $10 calls to capture any fast upward movement that might move me out of my long position.

This trading strategy has me at 70% 12 months returns trading AMD. In that time period AMD is down 10%. It's worked out pretty well.


I think AMD is a great buy if you are willing to hold and aren't afraid of wild price swings. Very few people seem to be able to stomach trading this stock though. Not for the faint of heart.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,246
2,779
126
At first I thought you were quoting one of the Ferengi Rules of Acquisition, but then I remembered:

Ferengi Rules of Acquisition #41 - "Profit is its own reward".

By the way, I'm sure glad that no one on AnandTech owns ToysRUs. They are closing all of their US retail stores. Which reminds me of another rule:

Ferengi Rules of Acquisition #162 - "Even in the worst of times, someone turns a profit".

You are a mind reader!

I had the Ferengi in mind when I wrote that response. ;)
 

DietDrThunder

Platinum Member
Apr 6, 2001
2,262
326
126
You are a mind reader!

I had the Ferengi in mind when I wrote that response. ;)

You are now a fully qualified member of the Ferengi Commerce Authority.

Welcome aboard and remember Rule of Acquisition # 10 - Greed is Eternal.
 
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KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,406
389
126
Damn, I hope nobody took my advice on EEP at 12.20.

I have to assume the dividend might be in danger.

Not sure the dividend is in danger. It fell hard because the FERC made some esoteric ruling on income tax allowances. Most pipeline companies have come out and said it won't really affect them though. I think its a case of overreaction.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...nge-after-ferc-kills-key-income-tax-allowance

Update:

Looks like Enbridge did respond and they guided DCF lower for the year.
 
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dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,693
566
136
Yeah, I'm still trying to process all of this. I need to talk too my friends in Houston.

EPD seems to have recovered to a degree. The days of a $35 price target might be a mirage for now though.
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,693
566
136
The market's been lacking in quality bounce candidates the past few days.

BLUE could fit the bill.

note - at $200 its definitely at the upper end of being a good bounce stock.
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,693
566
136
I thought my 500 MU shares were breaking even so I checked.

I bought it at 61.21, not 60.21. I'm such a dolt lol.
 

woodman1999

Golden Member
Sep 19, 2003
1,712
115
106
I thought my 500 MU shares were breaking even so I checked.

I bought it at 61.21, not 60.21. I'm such a dolt lol.

I can't remember if it was you that said it, but if you're in it for the long haul, that small difference in cost basis doesn't mean much... though to date, you haven't struck me as a long term holder of most things!
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,693
566
136
You're right of course.

The dolt part was for me misremembering the price of a stock I got by a dollar per share.
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,693
566
136
EEP threatening to drop under $10.

Ho

lee

shit


I had big positions in that stock not too long ago, averaging $17 dps and $15 dps. I would have LOST MY ASS the past two days.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,246
2,779
126
The stock is highly manipulated right now but if you are looking for a good stock to sell short term calls on AMD is it.


My AMD positions work like this:

I usually hold anywhere from 10k to 30k AMD shares at any one point in time. Every week on monday I set limit Sell To Open orders on calls that expire the following friday. I usually set them such that AMD would have to move more than 1$ in SP within the week for me to lose profit. This monday I set a limit STO order for 12.50 March 16 expiry calls @ .30 and it filled at .46 because of all the manipulation by CTS and Viceroy research. I made $6000 premium selling 100 those 12.50 calls on my 10k current shares.


If AMD ends up spiking over 1$ and I get exercised (unlikely) then I make $10k . If AMD doesn't and just trades flat, I make the contract premium of $6k (This is about 3-6x what you normally get from doing this), which is very likely.


I hold AMD 2019 and 2020 LEAP $10 calls to capture any fast upward movement that might move me out of my long position.

This trading strategy has me at 70% 12 months returns trading AMD. In that time period AMD is down 10%. It's worked out pretty well.


I think AMD is a great buy if you are willing to hold and aren't afraid of wild price swings. Very few people seem to be able to stomach trading this stock though. Not for the faint of heart.

What do you think the chances are of AMD doubling in the next 12-24 months? If a lazy investor simply wanted to accumulate shares without margin or options and simply waited for the day it does, that could be a nice payoff.
 

FIVR

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2016
3,753
911
106
What do you think the chances are of AMD doubling in the next 12-24 months? If a lazy investor simply wanted to accumulate shares without margin or options and simply waited for the day it does, that could be a nice payoff.

In 24 months? I'd say 90%+

If you just want to use shares then buy it now and set a limit sell order (good for 60 days) at 13.40 and go to sleep. At some point before the next earnings report you'll get a ~20% return.


Downside from current SP is pretty limited. It would take a market crash to take it below 10.50 again. There is a big possibility of a short squeeze when the Tesla Model S/X media display chip deal is announced.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
17,148
7,535
136
AMD's stock is pretty much predicated on crypto continuing to be popular (don't bet on it) and Intel continuing to screw up. If you think Intel is going to continue to screw up then I would say the play would be more to buy Intel puts instead although the timing of that would be key.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,246
2,779
126
Micron Technology, Inc. is expected* to report earnings on 03/22/2018 after market close. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Feb 2018. According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 4 analysts' forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $2.69."

Micron could rise or fall 10% or more next week.
 
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dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,693
566
136
I'm holding my little stash (unless it really pops the next few days).

Again - IMO its the patents as much as anything with MU.
 

FIVR

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2016
3,753
911
106
I'm buying $56 April 6 MU puts if it continues to rally or trades flat into earnings. If it sells off I will leave it alone.


I know I shouldn't short things but I simply can't help myself.
 

FIVR

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2016
3,753
911
106
AMD's stock is pretty much predicated on crypto continuing to be popular (don't bet on it) and Intel continuing to screw up. If you think Intel is going to continue to screw up then I would say the play would be more to buy Intel puts instead although the timing of that would be key.

Lol. What does "Crypto" have to do with Epyc ramp and 10% datacenter marketshare?


You sound like you get your AMD trading info from Goldman Sachs. Let us know how shorting AMD at $11.50 works out for you.
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,693
566
136
I think I'm going to watch BLUE at open tomorrow.

At $200 a share that's quite a chunk of change but I have the margin to make a move now since all of my options expired.

I'm going to keep an eye on EEP as a day trade option as well in case there's any sort of comeback there. No long interest whatsoever.