***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[FelixDeCat]

I agree they need to move along this thing. I'm not sure what else they are waiting for, it's never going to be perfect. But gold and silver did a nice bump with the dollar dropping. Thinking about a quick in and out of under armour right before they win the NBA finals? I'm sure every newb like myself has thought of it and it's priced in.

I've been trading actively since 1998. Since then I've bought zero clothing stocks. I've bought retailers like American Eagle, Sears and JCP, but never an underwear company like Under Armor.

 

[Imp]

^Didn't you hear? We're running out of land.

Canada: Larger land mass than China and U.S. of A.
Canada: Population ~35 million. China is ~1.3 billion, U.S. of A. is ~320 million.

 

[jpiniero]

I was disappointed with the Fed bowing to pressure from the market. The time for normalization is now, not nine more years from now. The Fed needs ammo for the future.

I don't think they would have any qualms about doing negative rates if need be. Still think there might be a hike in December, but that might be it for awhile.

 

[ponyo]

I don't think they would have any qualms about doing negative rates if need be. Still think there might be a hike in December, but that might be it for awhile.

Which is why this will end badly. The artificial support will eventually fail and there will be reset. The question is when and not if.

Meanwhile I'm going to continue stacking dumb barbaric pet rock.

 

[Charmonium]

Fed's doing their job perfectly: propping up the market and various bubbles created from almost a decade of ZIRP. Saw an article saying that 10-year treasuries may hit negative yields like European and Japanese bonds.

Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa... Go cheap money! Average price of a home in Canada is now ~CA$ 505k, yaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

Falling long yields are probably the result of NIRP in most of the rest of the world. When a bund is yielding some negative amount, 1.6% for the 10 year treasury looks pretty damn good. Sort of how walruses look to a guy who's been camping out in the arctic for several months.

We could go negative but we'll be one of the last developed markets to do so. That's my opinion anyway.

In the mean time, people are starting to worry about the flattening yield curve since that tends to be a reliable predictor of recession. But if long rates are going down mainly due to excessive demand and short rates are going up because that's what we expect the fed to do, you have wonder if maybe this time really is different.

 

[Imp]

I don't know what this guy is smoking, but I don't want any...

Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz says the country’s economy is finally gathering momentum...

Poloz pointed to signs that Canada is benefiting from a stronger U.S. economy, a robust level of household spending and a rebound in many non-energy export categories.

http://business.financialpost.com/n...g-momentum-we-have-the-right-to-be-optimistic

Yes, Canada's gathering lots of steam. Let's ignore the projected $1.4 billion the oil sands lost due to the fire -- and still, no one gives a shit about the billions in insurance payouts because all that money comes from magic land. Let's ignore the shitty oil prices. Definitely fuq low commodity prices, the massive housing bubble, 0.50% central bank rate, and rising delinquencies with big banks setting aside hundreds of millions each as contingency. And who cares the so called "stronger U.S. economy" may be in or entering a recession.

No, it's peaches and unicorns.

 

[holden j caufield]

Gold and Silver is going to take off today.

 

[JTsyo]

^Didn't you hear? We're running out of land.

Canada: Larger land mass than China and U.S. of A.
Canada: Population ~35 million. China is ~1.3 billion, U.S. of A. is ~320 million.

Much of it isn't desirable though. 3000 x 100 miles give you about 300,000 sq miles.

Is the economy still considered to be in recovery mode? I've heard recessions caused by credit restrictions take longer to recover from but we're nearing a decade.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Oil nearing my $43 price target. Called it back when it was $51.

Where's my cookie?!!

Talk of $30 dollar range is now popping up...going to be one HOT summer!

 

[Imp]

Much of it isn't desirable though. 3000 x 100 miles give you about 300,000 sq miles.

True, most of the north is essentially a wasteland due to the cold. However, a lot of the "good" land still isn't used or is very sparsely populated. We have multiples of the good stuff compared to Britain and a significantly smaller population.

Map showing populated areas. There's a video:
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/04/17/canada-empty-maps_n_5169055.html


And oil is back down to the $46 range (July contract). DXY is somehow not tanking. Probably flight to safety due to Brexit one week away.

 

[Charmonium]

Much of it isn't desirable though. 3000 x 100 miles give you about 300,000 sq miles.

Once global warming really kicks in, you'll have the NW passage open year round so there will be incentive to have ports and settlements along the northern coast. Also, winters will be milder so more of the country will fall in a desirable temp range.

 

[Imp]

Now we know what may be helping to drive this thing higher...

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DALLCIACBEP

About $47.5 billion of loans backed by retail properties are set to mature over the next 18 months, data from Bank of America Merrill Lynch show. That’s coinciding with a tighter market for commercial-mortgage backed securities, where many such properties are financed.

...

More than $1 billion of mortgages tied to shopping malls, office buildings and hotels soured in May, up from $884 million in April, Wells Fargo & Co. data show.

Might be a video:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-comes-for-u-s-shopping-malls-laden-with-debt


Edit: And more lip service about Canada's housing bubble.

Canada needs to take measures to ensure more people can afford housing at a time when prices are rising, particularly in cities like Vancouver and Toronto, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Thursday, but gave no details.

Video possible:
http://business.financialpost.com/p...take-measures-to-make-housing-more-affordable

You won't do shit. Neither will anyone else. There's been an average of ~40,000 home sales per month over the past two years. Make more affordable = lowering prices = fucking around 500,000 people who bought within the last year. And multiply that 500,000 people by how many years of capital appreciation you take off. You may even want to multiply that 500k by 2 because lots of people buy homes with partners/kids.

http://creastats.crea.ca/natl/index.htm

Unless make more affordable = make mortgage terms longer and interest rates lower and government paying for part of the house.

 

[Imp]

This was expected... What do you do when the oil rig count goes up for the third week straight in the middle of a global supply glut? Rally, of course.

Oil services firm Baker Hughes reported its weekly rig count rose by 9 to a total of 337. At this time last year, drillers were operating 631 rigs in U.S. oil fields.

This is the third consecutive weekly increase in the rig count.

Might be a video:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/16/oil-rises-for-first-time-in-seven-days.html

 

[FelixDeCat]

6/17/16 VRX Valiant new 52 week low, $22 close. Next stop $20.

 

[Imp]

You need to get the pick of the guy from the "Aliens" meme and generate a new one that says "Chinese."

Never mind, here you go

Aw man, that image is perfect...

“The point I want to make in the public debate is that a lot of the other things we are seeing right now – including speculation, fear of missing out, loans from the bank of Mom and Dad, all these different things that we are talking about in terms of driving prices – these are all in a sense knock-on effects of foreign money,” Prof. Gordon said.

Might be a video:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...of-vancouvers-housing-market/article30498551/

So, unless I'm misreading that, causes of Vancouver's housing market can be summarized as follows:

Speculation = Foreigners
FOMO = Foreigners
Bank of mom & dad = Foreigners
*.* = Foreigners

And in Canada, "foreigners" is generally code for "Chinese." Now I remember why my respect for academics is non-existent.

 

[Charmonium]

For the entertainment of our Canadian friends

http://www.businessinsider.com/canadian-housing-bubble-2016-6

 

[Imp]

^No, man. That 30% yoy is sustainable growth.

Five days till Brexit, only four over in Britain. Going to be a big week...

 

[JEDI]

^No, man. That 30% yoy is sustainable growth.

Five days till Brexit, only four over in Britain. Going to be a big week...

from what I heard, the referendum isn't binding?
if so, the prime minister, who doesn't want a Brexit, could just veto if parliament approves it?

 

[FelixDeCat]

from what I heard, the referendum isn't binding?
if so, the prime minister, who doesn't want a Brexit, could just veto if parliament approves it?

If supporters know that they have majority a then agitators will agitate. They will form a coalition that will overtake parliament or at least find enough willing supporters in government. One way or another succession will be inevitable.

 

[Charmonium]

from what I heard, the referendum isn't binding?
if so, the prime minister, who doesn't want a Brexit, could just veto if parliament approves it?

What's more likely I think is that the UK govt would use a 'leave' vote to extract concessions from the EU regarding things like immigration. That seems to be the main sticking point for the 'leave' supporters.

I seriously doubt that parliament would go along with a 'leave' vote. I don't really understand the specifics but apparently, leaving would cause all manner of financial problems all the way from decreased trade with the EU to a host of agreements and contracts predicated on UK being an EU member.

So I don't think there's any doubt that Parliament would find some way to weasel out of doing what the vote "advises."

I'd also point out that polls for these sorts of things in the UK are notoriously off or just plain wrong. A much more reliable indicator are the odds makers. Historically, they've nailed these kinds of predictions and right now I think the 'leave' option is only given a 35-40% chance of success - last I heard anyway which was a few days ago.

 

[Imp]

from what I heard, the referendum isn't binding?
if so, the prime minister, who doesn't want a Brexit, could just veto if parliament approves it?

I don't think it is. There's actually been a few other referendums in the EU fairly recently where the government went against the vote -- was it the Netherlands and Ukraine something something a few months back?

Regardless, it probably would still have an effect if the vote is to leave. Not sure how big, but if government doesn't do anything, they'll potentially get destroyed in the next election -- they have a UK Independence Party (UKIP) the vote could shift to. Discontent is also growing in the rest of the EU and word is that Italy and France would ask for their own referendums.

If the vote swings to stay, the assassin this past week will probably get blamed for destroying the momentum of the leave vote -- seriously, what a pointless death that probably had the complete opposite effect than was intended.

 

[Kwatt]

from what I heard, the referendum isn't binding?
if so, the prime minister, who doesn't want a Brexit, could just veto if parliament approves it?

I don't think Brexit will happen no matter the way the vote goes.

Too many financial repercussions.

The vote is just to let people think they have a say in what is going on.

If the vote is for Brexit some time later an announcement will be made that the EU has promised "X". So, a Brexit is no longer for the best.


.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I don't think Brexit will happen no matter the way the vote goes.

Too many financial repercussions.

Everything has to have a beginning. Let people have their say, it is up to government to follow the will of the people, repercussions or not.

 

[ponyo]

Tesla makes offer to acquire SolarCity

Interesting move by Musk. I can sort of see the big picture but can Tesla afford it?

 

[Imp]

Listening to the MSM now picking up the Brexit stuff in Canada and U.S... It's essentially been broken down into a left/right thing, pro/anti-immigration, or crashing the economy.

No one cares that Italy and Spain have huge problems that can't be fixed, then there's Greece -- Greece is using bailout loans to pay back loans, that's just delaying the inevitable. Negative interest rates? Thing is a sinking ship. Seriously, go look at Deutsche Bank's stock price -- this isn't even Spanish or Italian.