***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[KB]

Tesla makes offer to acquire SolarCity

Interesting move by Musk. I can sort of see the big picture but can Tesla afford it?

Tesla can definitely afford it as its an all stock deal. He just creates more shares of TSLA and uses it like currency. This is actually a smart decision. Use something you have thats way overpriced, TSLA shares, and use them to actually buy something that makes money.

I am not sure SolarCity is the best choice, but he sees something in it. He should create/sell shares in TSLA and buy GM. Rename the Chevy Bolt the Tesla bolt and the market will go crazy.

 

[Artdeco]

How are you guys doing this week?

I sold 40 covered calls on Stamps.com @ 92, I bought the underlying @ $91.13, I'd prefer keeping the underlying, but I think I'm close enough to what it'll be at the end of the week I can buy it back if need be.

Also, solved, didn't realize they want 24 hours before you're supposed to access options premiums, I was always wondering why options tend to trade more actively on Tuesdays, it must be that many are waiting for the funds to settle.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Listening to the MSM now picking up the Brexit stuff in Canada and U.S... It's essentially been broken down into a left/right thing, pro/anti-immigration, or crashing the economy.

No one cares that Italy and Spain have huge problems that can't be fixed, then there's Greece -- Greece is using bailout loans to pay back loans, that's just delaying the inevitable. Negative interest rates? Thing is a sinking ship. Seriously, go look at Deutsche Bank's stock price -- this isn't even Spanish or Italian.

But...but....everything is rainbows and lollipops!! America is now $19,200,000,000,000 in debt with no intention of repaying any of it back. And if America can do it so can all those European countries. Hey, its all good! We know what we are doing.

Brexit? Don't worry about it, bro! Negative rates will fix everything.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Tesla makes offer to acquire SolarCity

Interesting move by Musk. I can sort of see the big picture but can Tesla afford it?

Bad idea dude. BAD IDEA.

Tesla can definitely afford it as its an all stock deal. He just creates more shares of TSLA and uses it like currency. This is actually a smart decision. Use something you have thats way overpriced, TSLA shares, and use them to actually buy something that makes money.

I am not sure SolarCity is the best choice, but he sees something in it. He should create/sell shares in TSLA and buy GM. Rename the Chevy Bolt the Tesla bolt and the market will go crazy.

Im making a KILLING on my SCTY puts. About 100 dollars so far and counting!

 

[Imp]

Brexit? Don't worry about it, bro! Negative rates will fix everything.

Eeeeeeeevvvvvvveeeeeerrrrrryyyyyttthhhhiiiiiinnngggg!

EU is now doing QE -- as is Japan -- if I remember right. Wonder where they got that from. German DAX still down 20% from early 2015.

SPY has now formed a nice round top. All it needs is a little nudge.

 

[Charmonium]

The ECB has been doing QE for at least the past couple of years. That's nothing new. What's new is that they're now buying corporate paper, mainly because there wasn't enough sovereign debt to buy.

 

[Imp]

^Their markets fell hard in spite of QE. Damn.

Latest polls show essentially an even split with remain ahead at 51%. How do all of these things go down the middle? Scottish referendum was like 55/45 split. U.S. presidential elections are about the same.

 

[Imp]

Polls close on Brexit at 10:00 pm GMT (right?), so that's less than an hour from now.

In other news, Moody's had a report in the past week about how Canadian banks may lose like $12 billion if housing corrects around 25% nation wide.

Great, now why the hell are people still not interest in the billion of dollars lost in Fort McMurray from lost oil production to insurance payouts.

Now Klath fears his house, which narrowly escaped the fire, might not be worth salvaging.

Weeks after he was allowed a brief visit to the house to retrieve his most prized possessions, Klath and his family still cannot move back in, because toxic ash is fouling the air.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/fort-mcmurray-toxic-ash-saskatoon-1.3647335

Last estimate I heard was 2400 buildings destroyed. How many more thousands are in the same toxic, unlivable condition as the one in the story? Large plots of land in that town are now essentially in an exclusion zone. Property values are likely dead and were over $500k in early 2015. And still, no one cares. What the fuq?

Edit: More info on how toxic cleaning up the entire town is.

At least three employees say they were hired to do wildfire cleanup at condos and hotels, given little to no information about risks, and were required to spend up to 12 hours a day inside the rooms, with doors and windows closed.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...ge-dirty-treatment-in-wildfire-zone-1.3635651

 

[FelixDeCat]

My guess?

<----Exit---->

 

[Charmonium]

Polls close on Brexit at 10:00 pm GMT (right?), so that's less than an hour from now.

In other news, Moody's had a report in the past week about how Canadian banks may lose like $12 billion if housing corrects around 25% nation wide.

Great, now why the hell are people still not interest in the billion of dollars lost in Fort McMurray from lost oil production to insurance payouts.



http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/fort-mcmurray-toxic-ash-saskatoon-1.3647335

Last estimate I heard was 2400 buildings destroyed. How many more thousands are in the same toxic, unlivable condition as the one in the story? Large plots of land in that town are now essentially in an exclusion zone. Property values are likely dead and were over $500k in early 2015. And still, no one cares. What the fuq?

Edit: More info on how toxic cleaning up the entire town is.



http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...ge-dirty-treatment-in-wildfire-zone-1.3635651

Insurance companies generally re-insure against large losses. So you might write a policy for $100M and then you might sell $80M of that to other insurance companies.

The practice guarantees that risk is spread over many companies.

That's my guess as to why no one is especially concerned. Plus insurance companies have to set aside a certain portion of their outstanding liability, sort of like a reserve requirement for a bank.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Leave leading in early results!!

 

[FelixDeCat]

Ruh-Roh futures going negative....in Summer, no less...!

 

[Charmonium]

Yes. Early results don't look good. Here is continuously updated results page from the Telegraph.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/23/leave-or-remain-eu-referendum-results-and-live-maps/

 

[ponyo]

Leave or remain, I would fade the initial move. That is the easy trade of the day.

 

[Imp]

Insurance companies generally re-insure against large losses. So you might write a policy for $100M and then you might sell $80M of that to other insurance companies.

The practice guarantees that risk is spread over many companies.

That's my guess as to why no one is especially concerned. Plus insurance companies have to set aside a certain portion of their outstanding liability, sort of like a reserve requirement for a bank.

Sounds like mortgages being sold around... You'd think that these insurance policies would have a national (i.e. Canada) concentration though? I don't know, but it's weird that I haven't heard much of anyone talk about the financial companies losing money on insurance payouts. In fact, I've heard the opposite about how the insurance payouts would provide stimulus. Dafuq? That's not fairy money... Zero sum game.


And I am surprised by the Brexit. Leave currently at 50.3% and remain at 49.7% -- saved you the math. When I first looked at results with only 2%-ish reporting, it was like 60/40 in favor of remain. The Sterling is getting destroyed right now at like 5% down.

Spoke too soon, just updated to 50.4% leave, 49.6% remain. I really don't get how this could be so evenly split.

 

[Imp]

Dios mios, Jésus.

That Telegraph site is showing Leave at 51.1% now. England is 54.6% leave, Wales is around 55% too. Scotland and Northern Ireland are 62% and 56%, respectively.

Too bad there are only 5.3 million Scots and 1.8 million Northern Irish. Wales at 3 million, England at 53 million... so the only one that matters is England.

 

[brianmanahan]

do canada and australia get to vote?

 

[Imp]

do canada and australia get to vote?

No. Sovereign nations, yo. But part of the Commonwealth.

EU is a sinking ship, so I'd go with Leave. That may be the American -- from consuming your media my entire life, not any legal ties -- in me though.

 

[brianmanahan]

i wonder if the EU will caliphate-ruled in my lifetime...

i better visit the countries while they're still accessible.

 

[FelixDeCat]

If supporters know that they have majority a then agitators will agitate. They will form a coalition that will overtake parliament or at least find enough willing supporters in government. One way or another succession will be inevitable.

I told you guys Brexit would have the day. Now lets see if the leaders do what they are told.

Either way, chaos-at-the-disco.


NAS Futures -3.65% (DOWN 165 points)

S&P -3.50% (DOWN 75 points)


D:

But wait! There's more!!

FTSE 100 -8.50%!!!!!! -541 DOWN!!

 

[Charmonium]

And I am surprised by the Brexit. Leave currently at 50.3% and remain at 49.7% -- saved you the math. When I first looked at results with only 2%-ish reporting, it was like 60/40 in favor of remain. The Sterling is getting destroyed right now at like 5% down.

Spoke too soon, just updated to 50.4% leave, 49.6% remain. I really don't get how this could be so evenly split.

Leave now leading by 3 points with over half the vote in - looking dire.

 

[brianmanahan]

dang, the pound has dropped from 1.50$ to 1.35$ in the last couple of hours

 

[Imp]

Ran some numbers based on current vote split and populations.

Remain count, assuming current distribution holds...
England minus London: 0.45 x 44.4 = 19.98
Wales: 0.47 x 5.3 = 2.49
London: 0.64 x 8.6 = 5.50
Scotland: 0.63 x 1.8 = 1.13
Northern Ireland: 0.55 x 3.0 = 1.65
TOTAL = 30.76

Leave, same conditions...
England minus London: 0.55 x 44.4 = 24.42
Wales: 0.53 x 5.3 = 2.81
London: 0.36 x 8.6 = 3.10
Scotland: 0.37 x 1.8 = 0.67
Northern Ireland: 0.45 x 3.0 = 1.35
TOTAL = 32.34

The London region is the big one -- partly because I don't know which population to use (14 million metropolitan or 8.6 Greater London).

 

[Imp]

^I mentally averaged the "England minus London" split. London really is the one to watch, assuming the voter turnout is strong in London.

However, I think it's the more rural people who may be the most pissed at the EU, and "educated" young'uns don't vote. The polls favoring Remain over the past week may also have lit a match under the asses of Leavers. Currently 51.8/48.2 in favor of Leave, 72.3% reported. London still only 55% counted.

 

[theeedude]

dang, the pound has dropped from 1.50$ to 1.35$ in the last couple of hours

Scary thing is Yen is rallying 5% while Euro is dropping 4% vs USD. Effectively, a 9% swing against Japanese exporters vs EU exporters. No way BoJ lets this slide. And when they devalue, what's China going to do, and where will it stop. :|